Linda Matusiak

Projecting future drug expenditures—2012

PURPOSE Factors likely to influence drug expenditures, drug expenditure trends in 2010 and 2011, and projected drug expenditures for 2012 are discussed. SUMMARY Data were analyzed to provide drug expenditure trends for total drug expenditures and the hospital and clinic sectors. Data were obtained from the IMS Health National Sales Perspectives database. From 2009 to 2010, total U.S. drug expenditures increased by 2.7%, with total spending rising from

National trends in prescription drug expenditures and projections for 2015.

299.2 billion to

Projecting future drug expenditures--2009.

307.5 billion. Drug expenditures in clinics grew by 6.0% from 2009 to 2010. Hospital drug expenditures increased at the moderate rate of 1.5% from 2009 to 2010; through the first nine months of 2011, hospital drug expenditures increased by only 0.3% compared with the same period in 2010. The dominant trend over the past several years is substantial moderation in expenditure growth for widely used drugs, primarily due to the ongoing introduction and wide use of generic versions of high-cost, frequently used medications. At the end of 2010, generic drugs accounted for 78% of all retail prescriptions dispensed. Another pattern is substantial increases in expenditures for specialized medications, particularly in the outpatient setting as growth in prescription drug expenditures for clinic-administered drugs consistently outpaces growth in total expenditures. Various factors are likely to influence drug expenditures in 2012, including drugs in development, the diffusion of new drugs, generic drugs, drug shortages, and biosimilars. CONCLUSION For 2012, we project a 3-5% increase in total drug expenditures across all settings, a 5-7% increase in expenditures for clinic-administered drugs, and a 0-2% increase in hospital drug expenditures.

Projecting future drug expenditures—2011

PURPOSE Historical trends and factors likely to influence future pharmaceutical expenditures are discussed, and projections are made for drug spending in 2017 in nonfederal hospitals, clinics, and overall (all sectors). METHODS Drug expenditure data through calendar year 2016 were obtained from the QuintilesIMS National Sales Perspectives database and analyzed. Other factors that may influence drug spending in hospitals and clinics in 2017, including new drug approvals and patent expirations, were also reviewed. Expenditure projections for 2017 for nonfederal hospitals, clinics, and overall (all sectors) were made based on a combination of quantitative analyses and expert opinion. RESULTS Total U.S. prescription sales in the 2016 calendar year were

Projecting future drug expenditures - 2010

448.2 billion, a 5.8% increase compared with 2015. More than half of the increase resulted from price hikes of existing drugs. Adalimumab was the top drug overall in 2016 expenditures (

Projecting future drug expenditures in U.S. nonfederal hospitals and clinics—2013

13.6 billion); in clinics and nonfederal hospitals, infliximab was the top drug. Prescription expenditures in clinics and nonfederal hospitals totaled

Antibiotic Expenditures by Medication, Class, and Healthcare Setting in the United States, 2010–2015

63.7 billion (an 11.9% increase from 2015) and

Spending on Hepatitis C Antivirals in the United States, 2009-2015

34.5 billion (a 3.3% increase from 2015), respectively. In nonfederal hospitals and clinics, growth in spending was driven primarily by price increases of existing drugs and increased volume, respectively. CONCLUSION We project a 6.0-8.0% increase in total drug expenditures across all settings, an 11.0-13.0% increase in clinics, and a 3.0-5.0% increase in hospital drug spending in 2017. Health-system pharmacy leaders should carefully examine their own local drug utilization patterns to determine their own organizations anticipated spending in 2017.

Influenza antiviral expenditures and outpatient prescriptions in the United States, 2003-2012

PURPOSE Drug expenditure trends in 2007 and 2008, projected drug expenditures for 2009, and factors likely to influence drug expenditures are discussed. SUMMARY Various factors are likely to influence drug expenditures in 2009, including drugs in development, the diffusion of new drugs, drug safety concerns, generic drugs, Medicare Part D, and changes in the drug supply chain. The increasing availability of important generic drugs and drug safety concerns continue to moderate growth in drug expenditures. The drug supply chain remains dynamic and may influence drug expenditures, particularly in specialized therapeutic areas. Initial data suggest that the Medicare Part D benefit has influenced drug expenditures, but the ultimate impact of the benefit on drug expenditures remains unclear. From 2006 to 2007, total U.S. drug expenditures increased by 4.0%, with total spending rising from

Accuracy of annual prescription drug expenditure forecasts in AJHP

276 billion to