Linda Pickard

Relying on informal care in the new century? Informal care for elderly people in England to 2031

The research reported here is concerned with the future of informal care over the next thirty years and the effect of changes in informal care on demand for formal services. The research draws on a PSSRU computer simulation model which has produced projections to 2031 for long-term care for England. The latest Government Actuarys Department (GAD) 1996-based marital status projections are used here. These projections yield unexpected results in that they indicate that more elderly people are likely to receive informal care than previously projected. The underlying reason is that the GAD figures project a fall in the number of widows and rise in the number of elderly women with partners. What this implies is that ‘spouse carers’ are likely to become increasingly important. This raises issues about the need for support by carers since spouse carers tend to be themselves elderly and are often in poor health. The article explores a number of ‘scenarios’ around informal care, including scenarios in which the supply of informal care is severely restricted and a scenario in which more support is given to carers by developing ‘carer-blind’ services. This last scenario has had particular relevance for the Royal Commission on Long Term Care.

Care by Spouses, Care by Children: Projections of Informal Care for Older People in England to 2031

The future market costs of long-term care for older people will be affected by the extent of informal care. This paper reports on projections of receipt of informal care by disabled older people from their spouses and (adult) children to 2031 in England. The paper shows that, over the next 30 years, care by spouses is likely to increase substantially. However, if current patterns of care remain the same, care by children will also need to increase by nearly 60 per cent by 2031. It is not clear that the supply of care by children will rise to meet this demand.

Modelling an entitlement to long-term care services for older people in Europe: projections for long-term care expenditure to 2050

As the numbers of older people rise in Europe, the importance of long-term care services in terms of numbers of users and expenditures can be expected to grow. This article examines the implications for expenditure in four countries of a national entitlement to long-tem care services for all older people, based on assessed dependency. It is based on a European Commission-funded cross-national study, which makes projections to 2050 of long-term care expenditure in Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK. The policy option investigated is based on the German long-term care insurance scheme, which embodies the principle of an entitlement on uniform national criteria to long-term care benefits. The research models this key principle of the German system in the other three participating countries, with respect to home care services. The study finds that, if all moderately/severely dependent older people receive an entitlement to formal (in-kind) home care, the impact on expenditure could be considerable, but would vary greatly between countries. The impact on long-term care expenditure is found to be the least in Germany, where there is already an entitlement to benefits; and the greatest in Spain, where reliance on informal care is widespread. This article discusses the policy implications of these results.

Carer Break or Carer-blind? Policies for Informal Carers in the UK

This article examines three policy statements on informal carers published in the UK in 1999—the National Strategy for Carers, the report of the Royal Commission on Long Term Care and the note of dissent by two members of the Royal Commission. These three documents contain two rather different approaches to policy for carers. On the one hand, the National Strategy and note of dissent emphasize respite care or short-term breaks for carers, and are concerned with sustaining the well-being of carers as well as ensuring the continuation of caring itself. The Royal Commission, on the other hand, emphasizes support for the older or disabled person who is being cared for, as a means of supporting the carer, and advocates “carer-blind” services. It is argued that this policy contains within it the potential to substitute for or replace the carer and that this represents a radical new departure for social policy for carers in the UK. The advantages and disadvantages of the two policy approaches are explored. It is argued that policies for carers should include both services specifically for carers, like breaks from caring, and services provided for the cared-for person, like domestic and personal care services. Wider issues about the proper boundary between family and state care are explored.

A growing care gap? The supply of unpaid care for older people by their adult children in England to 2032

ABSTRACT A key feature of population ageing in Europe and other more economically developed countries is the projected unprecedented rise in need for long-term care in the next two decades. There is, however, considerable uncertainty over the future supply of unpaid care for older people by their adult children. The future of family care is particularly important in countries planning to reform their long-term care systems, as is the case in England. This article makes new projections of the supply of intense unpaid care for parents aged 65 and over in England to 2032, and compares these projections with existing projections of demand for unpaid care by older people with disabilities from their children. The results show that the supply of unpaid care to older people with disabilities by their adult children in England is unlikely to keep pace with demand in future. By 2032, there is projected to be a shortfall of 160,000 care-givers in England. Demand for unpaid care will begin to exceed supply by 2017 and the unpaid ‘care gap’ will grow rapidly from then onwards. The article concludes by examining how far this unpaid ‘care gap’ is likely to be met by other sources of unpaid care or by developments in new technology and examines the implications of the findings for long-term care policy.

Substitution between formal and informal care: a ‘natural experiment’ in social policy in Britain between 1985 and 2000

ABSTRACT This paper is concerned with the issue of substitution between formal and informal care in Britain between 1985 and 2000. This period provides the conditions for a ‘natural experiment’ in social policy. During the late 1980s/early 1990s, there was an increase in long-stay residential care for older people, which came to an end around the mid-1990s. The paper examines whether this increase in formal services led to a decline in informal care, and whether this was subsequently reversed. The focus is on provision of intense informal care by adult children to their older parents, trends in which are identified using General Household Survey data. The paper shows that there was a decline in provision of intense and very intense co-resident care for older parents between 1985 and 1995, which came to an end in the mid-1990s. These trends in intergenerational care were negatively related to changes in long-stay residential care. In particular, controlling for age and disability, there was evidence of substitution between nursing home/hospital care and very intense co-resident care for older parents. A key policy implication is that an expansion of very intense formal services for older people could bring about a decline in very intense intergenerational care. The paper relates these findings to the current debate on reform of the long-term care system in England.

Winners and losers: assessing the distributional effects of long-term care funding regimes

Using two linked simulation models, we examine the public expenditure costs and distributional effects of potential reforms to long-term care funding in the UK. Changes to the means tests for user contributions to care costs are compared with options for the abolition of these means tests (‘free’ personal care). The latter generally cost more than the former and benefit higher income groups more than those on lower incomes (measuring income in relation to the age-specific income distribution). Reforms to the means tests target benefits towards those on lower incomes. However, the highest income group are net losers if free personal care is financed by a higher tax rate on higher incomes and the effect on the whole population considered.

The Effectiveness of Paid Services in Supporting Unpaid Carers’ Employment in England

This paper explores the effectiveness of paid services in supporting unpaid carers’ employment in England. There is currently a new emphasis in England on ‘replacement care’, or paid services for the cared-for person, as a means of supporting working carers. The international evidence on the effectiveness of paid services as a means of supporting carers’ employment is inconclusive and does not relate specifically to England. The study reported here explores this issue using the 2009/10 Personal Social Services Survey of Adult Carers in England. The study finds a positive association between carers’ employment and receipt of paid services by the cared-for person, controlling for covariates. It therefore gives support to the hypothesis that services for the cared-for person are effective in supporting carers’ employment. Use of home care and a personal assistant are associated on their own with the employment of both men and women carers, while use of day care and meals-on-wheels are associated specifically with womens employment. Use of short-term breaks are associated with carers’ employment when combined with other services. The paper supports the emphasis in English social policy on paid services as a means of supporting working carers, but questions the use of the term ‘replacement care’ and the emphasis on ‘the market’.

Mapping the future of family care: receipt of informal care by older people with disabilities in England to 2032

Many long-term care systems in economically developed countries are reliant on informal care. However, in the context of population ageing, there are concerns about the future supply of informal care. This article reports on projections of informal care receipt by older people with disabilities from spouses and (adult) children to 2032 in England. The projections show that the proportions of older people with disabilities who have a child will fall by 2032 and that the extent of informal care in future may be lower than previously estimated. The policy implications, in the context of the Dilnot Commissions report, are explored.

The effect of lengthening Life Expectancy on future pension and Long-Term Care expenditure in England, 2007 to 2032

AbstractBackground The aim of this analysis is to examine the effect of different assumptions about future trends in life expectancy (LE) on the sustainability of the pensions and long-term care (LTC) systems. The context is the continuing debate in England about the reform of state pensions and the reform of the system for financing care and support. Methods Macro and micro simulation models are used to make projections of future public expenditure on LTC services for older people and on state pensions and related benefits, making alternative assumptions on increases in future LE. The projections cover the period 2007 to 2032 and relate to England. Results Results are presented for a base case and for specified variants to the base case. The base case assumes that the number of older people by age and gender rises in line with the Office for National Statistics’ principal 2006-based population projection for England. It also assumes no change in disability rates, no changes in patterns of care, no changes in policy and rises in unit care costs and real average earnings by 2 per cent per year. Under these assumptions public expenditure on pensions and related benefits is projected to rise from 4.7 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2007 to 6.2 per cent of GDP in 2032 and public expenditure on LTC from 0.9 per cent of GDP in 2007 to 1.6 per cent of GDP in 2032. Under a very high LE variant to the GAD principal projection, however, public expenditure on pensions and related benefits is projected to reach 6.8 per cent of GDP in 2032 and public expenditure on LTC 1.7 per cent of GDP in 2032. Conclusions MPolicymakers developing reform proposals need to recognise that, since future LE is inevitably uncertain and since variant assumptions about future LE significantly affect expenditure projections, there is a degree of uncertainty about the likely impact of demographic pressures on future public expenditure on pensions and LTC. List of Tables, 36