Linda Sharples

EuroSCORE II dagger

OBJECTIVES To update the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) risk model. METHODS A dedicated website collected prospective risk and outcome data on 22,381 consecutive patients undergoing major cardiac surgery in 154 hospitals in 43 countries over a 12-week period (May-July 2010). Completeness and accuracy were validated during data collection using mandatory field entry, error and range checks and after data collection using summary feedback confirmation by responsible officers and multiple logic checks. Information was obtained on existing EuroSCORE risk factors and additional factors proven to influence risk from research conducted since the original model. The primary outcome was mortality at the base hospital. Secondary outcomes were mortality at 30 and 90 days. The data set was divided into a developmental subset for logistic regression modelling and a validation subset for model testing. A logistic risk model (EuroSCORE II) was then constructed and tested. RESULTS Compared with the original 1995 EuroSCORE database (in brackets), the mean age was up at 64.7 (62.5) with 31% females (28%). More patients had New York Heart Association class IV, extracardiac arteriopathy, renal and pulmonary dysfunction. Overall mortality was 3.9% (4.6%). When applied to the current data, the old risk models overpredicted mortality (actual: 3.9%; additive predicted: 5.8%; logistic predicted: 7.57%). EuroSCORE II was well calibrated on testing in the validation data subset of 5553 patients (actual mortality: 4.18%; predicted: 3.95%). Very good discrimination was maintained with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.8095. CONCLUSIONS Cardiac surgical mortality has significantly reduced in the last 15 years despite older and sicker patients. EuroSCORE II is better calibrated than the original model yet preserves powerful discrimination. It is proposed for the future assessment of cardiac surgical risk.

Banking on human embryonic stem cells: estimating the number of donor cell lines needed for HLA matching

BACKGROUND Human embryonic stem (hES) cells are a promising source for transplantation to replace diseased or damaged tissue, but their differentiated progeny express human leucocyte antigens (HLAs) that will probably cause graft rejection. The creation of a bank of HLA-typed hES cells, from which a best match could be selected, would help reduce the likelihood of graft rejection. We investigated how many hES cell lines would be needed to make matching possible in most cases. METHODS The number of hES cell lines needed to achieve varying degrees of HLA match was estimated by use of, as a surrogate for hES-cell donor embryos, blood group and HLA types on a series of 10,000 consecutive UK cadaveric organ donors. The degree of blood group compatibility and HLA matching for a recipient population consisting of 6577 patients registered on the UK kidney transplant waiting list was determined, assuming all donor hES cell lines could provide a transplant for an unlimited number of recipients. FINDINGS A bank of 150 consecutive donors provided a full match at HLA-A, HLA-B, and HLA-DR for a minority of recipients (<20%); a beneficial match (defined as one HLA-A or one HLA-B mismatch only) or better for 37.9% (range 27.9-47.5); and an HLA-DR match or better for 84.9% (77.5-90.0). Extending the number of donors beyond 150 conferred only a very gradual incremental benefit with respect to HLA matching. A panel of only ten donors homozygous for common HLA types selected from 10,000 donors provided a complete HLA-A, HLA-B and HLA-DR match for 37.7% of recipients, and a beneficial match for 67.4%. INTERPRETATION Approximately 150 consecutive blood group compatible donors, 100 consecutive blood group O donors, or ten highly selected homozygous donors could provide the maximum practical benefit for HLA matching. The findings from these simulations have practical, political, and ethical implications for the establishment of hES-cell banks.

Cardiac Remote Ischemic Preconditioning in Coronary Stenting (CRISP Stent) Study: a prospective, randomized control trial.

Background— Myocyte necrosis as a result of elective percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) occurs in approximately one third of cases and is associated with subsequent cardiovascular events. This study assessed the ability of remote ischemic preconditioning (IPC) to attenuate cardiac troponin I (cTnI) release after elective PCI. Methods and Results— Two hundred forty-two consecutive patients undergoing elective PCI with undetectable preprocedural cTnI were recruited. Subjects were randomized to receive remote IPC (induced by three 5-minute inflations of a blood pressure cuff to 200 mm Hg around the upper arm, followed by 5-minute intervals of reperfusion) or control (an uninflated cuff around the arm) before arrival in the catheter laboratory. The primary outcome was cTnI at 24 hours after PCI. Secondary outcomes included renal dysfunction and major adverse cardiac and cerebral event rate at 6 months. The median cTnI at 24 hours after PCI was lower in the remote IPC compared with the control group (0.06 versus 0.16 ng/mL; P=0.040). After remote IPC, cTnI was <0.04 ng/mL in 44 patients (42%) compared with 24 in the control group (24%; P=0.01). Subjects who received remote IPC experienced less chest discomfort (P=0.0006) and ECG ST-segment deviation (P=0.005) than control subjects. At 6 months, the major adverse cardiac and cerebral event rate was lower in the remote IPC group (4 versus 13 events; P=0.018). Conclusion— Remote IPC reduces ischemic chest discomfort during PCI, attenuates procedure-related cTnI release, and appears to reduce subsequent cardiovascular events.

Transmyocardial laser revascularisation in patients with refractory angina: a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND Transmyocardial laser revascularisation (TMLR) is used to treat patients with refractory angina due to severe coronary artery disease, not suitable for conventional revascularisation. We aimed in a randomised controlled trial to assess the effectiveness of TMLR compared with medical management. METHODS 188 patients with refractory angina were randomly assigned TMLR plus normal medication or medical management alone. At 3 months, 6 months, and 12 months after surgery (TMLR) or initial assessment (medical management) we assessed exercise capacity with the treadmill test and the 12 min walk. FINDINGS Mean treadmill exercise time, adjusted for baseline values, was 40 s (95% CI -15 to 94) longer in the TMLR group than in the medical-management group at 12 months (p=0.152). Mean 12 min walk distance was 33 m (-7 to 74) further in TMLR patients than medical-management patients (p=0.108) at 12 months. The differences were not significant or clinically important. Perioperative mortality was 5%. Survival at 12 months was 89% (83-96) in the TMLR group and 96% (92-100) in the medical-management group (p=0.14). Canadian Cardiovascular Society score for angina had decreased by at least two classes in 25% of TMLR and 4% of medical-management patients at 12 months (p<0.001). INTERPRETATION Our findings show that the adoption of TMLR cannot be advocated. Further research may be appropriate to assess any potential benefit for sicker patients.

Development of bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome in recipients of heart-lung transplantation : Early risk factors

Given the internationally recognized definition of bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome (BOS) and longer follow up of heart-lung transplant recipients, it is possible to establish some of the major risk factors for development and progression of BOS. Between April 1984 and 31 December 1993, 157 patients underwent heart-lung transplantation; 126 survived at least six months after operation and so were at risk of developing BOS. The following early risk factors were assessed for development of BOS grade 1 (21-35% decline in FEV1) and progression from grade 1 to grade 2 (36-50% decline in FEV1): age, gender and underlying diagnosis of the recipient, evidence of acute rejection and cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection within 6 months of operation, peak FEV1 achieved, age and gender of the donor, cold ischemic time of the graft, and matching of CMV serological status and HLA antigens of donor and recipient. The number of acute rejection episodes observed remained the single most important determinant of development of BOS grade 1 (relative risk 1.17 (1.06, 1.29), P=0.002) and progression to BOS grade 2 (relative risk 1.58 (1.02, 2.46), P=0.03). No other factors were significantly related to development or progression of BOS, although both evidence of CMV infection and disease and the number of HLA mismatches increased the risk. Bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome is a major problem for medium-to-long-term survivors of cardiothoracic transplantation. Acute rejection early after transplantation is a sensitive prognostic indicator of subsequent functional decline and requires prompt attention.

Risk factor analysis for the major hazards following heart transplantation--rejection, infection, and coronary occlusive disease.

This study demonstrates the importance of analyzing survival by cause of death in order to achieve a better understanding of the prognostic indicators involved. It further emphasizes the need for analysis of risk factors in both univariate and multivariate models, and the danger of making judgements based on premature analysis of data on follow-up after heart transplantation. Survival following transplantation is characterized by the major hazards of early death due to infection and rejection and late graft loss due to coronary occlusive disease (COD). This study summarizes the first-graft survival experience for 323 transplant patients at Papworth Hospital, and assesses a number of potential risk factors for (1) early mortality, (2) late mortality from COD, and (3) development of COD. The potential risk factors considered for all hazards are donor and recipient age, sex, blood group, and matching of these factors; donor cause of death and recipient immunosuppression; inotropic support; waiting time; preoperative diagnosis and previous cardiac surgery; ischemic time; and extubation time. In addition, for development of, and graft loss from, COD, perioperative rejection and cytomegalovirus infection; hypertension at discharge; and cholesterol, triglycerides, and lipids at two years were assessed as risk factors. Advances in immunosuppression were observed to have increased overall survival rates and decreased mortality from infection, rejection, and COD, as well as decreasing morbidity from COD. Fatal rejection was found to be more likely in female recipients, recipients over 40 years, recipients of grafts from donors over 30 years old, patients who were transplanted for valvular heart disease, and patients who waited less than three months for their transplant. Male recipients of female donor organs were more likely to lose their grafts as a result of COD. Patients older than 50 and hearts from donors older than 40 conferred a high risk of development of and loss from COD. Patients transplanted for ischemic heart disease were more likely to develop COD. High cholesterol, low HDL, high LDL, and high triglycerides at two years after transplant showed some evidence of high risk for the subsequent development of COD, although these relationships are not statistically significant at this stage. Contrary to other recent studies, cytomegalovirus infection was not found to be a risk factor for the development of COD.

Multistate Markov models for disease progression with classification error

Summary. Many chronic diseases have a natural interpretation in terms of staged progression. Multistate models based on Markov processes are a well-established method of estimating rates of transition between stages of disease. However, diagnoses of disease stages are sometimes subject to error. The paper presents a general hidden Markov model for simultaneously estimating transition rates and probabilities of stage misclassification. Covariates can be fitted to both the transition rates and the misclassification probabilities. For example, in the study of abdominal aortic aneurysms by ultrasonography, the disease is staged by severity, according to successive ranges of aortic diameter. The model is illustrated on data from a trial of aortic aneurysm screening, in which the screening measurements are subject to error. General purpose software for model implementation has been developed in the form of an R package and is made freely available.

Risk factors for obliterative bronchiolitis in heart-lung transplant recipients.

Obliterative bronchiolitis is the major cause of death of long-term survivors of heart-lung transplantation. Of our first 75 patients who have received heart-lung transplantation, 38 have been followed for a year or longer. Eight patients developed clinical evidence of obliterative bronchiolitis within 15 months of transplantation, of whom four died with postmortem confirmation of extensive obliterative bronchiolitis, interstitial and pleural fibrosis, and vascular sclerosis in the heart and lungs. One further patient died before one year after chronic rejection. All nine patients had evidence on transbronchial biopsy of submucosal fibrosis and vascular sclerosis. Twelve of our remaining patients have shown similar areas of lung fibrosis on transbronchial biopsy, and the other eighteen are well and without fibrosis on transbronchial biopsy. Studies of the 274 biopsies obtained from 38 patients confirmed rejection on 182 occasions with more frequent, more persistent, and more severe rejection in the chronic rejection group than in the without-fibrosis or lung fibrosis groups. Opportunistic infection resulted in pneumonia on 19 occasions, and were most commonly found in lung fibrosis patients. We conclude that obliterative bronchiolitis is the likely outcome in patients with early, poorly controlled, severe rejection.

Late complications following permanent pacemaker implantation or elective unit replacement

Objective To determine the rate of late complications following first implantation or elective unit replacement of a permanent pacemaker system. Design Analysis of pacemaker data and complications prospectively acquired on a computerised database. Complications were studied over an 11 year period from January 1984 to December 1994. Setting Tertiary referral cardiothoracic centre. Patients Records of 2621 patients were analysed retrospectively. Main outcome measures Complications requiring repeat procedures occurring more than six weeks after pacemaker implantation or elective unit replacement. Results The overall rate of late complications was significantly lower after first implantation of a permanent pacemaker (34 cases, complication rate 1.4%, 95% confidence interval 0.9% to 1.9%) than after elective unit replacement (16 cases, complication rate 6.5% (3.3% to 9.7%). There were 20 cases of erosion, 18 infections, five electrode problems, and seven miscellaneous problems. Complications were more common with inexperienced operators (18.9% (6.0% to 31.8%)) than with experienced operators (0.9% (0.3% to 1.5%)). Conclusions The incidence of late complications following pacemaker implantation is low and compares favourably with early complication rates. The majority are caused by erosion and infection. Patients who have undergone elective unit replacement are at particular risk.

Health benefits and cost effectiveness of endoscopic and nonendoscopic cytosponge screening for Barrett's esophagus.

BACKGROUND & AIMS We developed a model to compare the health benefits and cost effectiveness of screening for Barretts esophagus by either Cytosponge™ or by conventional endoscopy vs no screening, and to estimate their abilities to reduce mortality from esophageal adenocarcinoma. METHODS We used microsimulation modeling of a hypothetical cohort of 50-year-old men in the United Kingdom with histories of gastroesophageal reflux disease symptoms, assuming the prevalence of Barretts esophagus to be 8%. Participants were invited to undergo screening by endoscopy or Cytosponge (invitation acceptance rates of 23% and 45%, respectively), and outcomes were compared with those from men who underwent no screening. We estimated the number of incident esophageal adenocarcinoma cases prevented and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) of the different strategies. Patients found to have high-grade dysplasia or intramucosal cancer received endotherapy. Model inputs included data on disease progression, test accuracy, post-treatment status, and surveillance protocols. Costs and benefits were discounted at 3.5% per year. Supplementary and sensitivity analyses comprised esophagectomy management of high-grade dysplasia or intramucosal cancer, screening by ultrathin nasal endoscopy, and different assumptions of uptake of screening invitations for either strategy. RESULTS We estimated that compared with no screening, Cytosponge screening followed by treatment of patients with dysplasia or intramucosal cancer costs an additional