Linda Youngman

Human papillomavirus infection as a risk factor for squamous-cell carcinoma of the head and neck

BACKGROUND Oncogenic human papillomaviruses (HPVs), especially HPV type 16 (HPV-16), cause anogenital epithelial cancers and are suspected of causing epithelial cancers of the head and neck. METHODS To examine the relation between head and neck cancers and HPVs, we performed a nested case-control study within a joint Nordic cohort in which serum samples were collected from almost 900,000 subjects. Samples collected at enrollment from 292 persons in whom squamous-cell carcinoma of the head and neck developed, on average, 9.4 years after enrollment and from 1568 matched controls were analyzed for antibodies against HPV-16, HPV-18, HPV-33, and HPV-73 and for cotinine levels as a marker of smoking habits. Polymerase-chain-reaction (PCR) analyses for HPV DNA were performed in tumor tissue from 160 of the study patients with cancer. RESULTS After adjustment for cotinine levels, the odds ratio for squamous-cell carcinoma of the head and neck in subjects who were seropositive for HPV-16 was 2.2 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.4 to 3.4). No increased risk was observed for other HPV types. Fifty percent of oropharyngeal and 14 percent of tongue cancers contained HPV-16 DNA, according to PCR analysis. CONCLUSIONS HPV-16 infection may be a risk factor for squamous-cell carcinoma of the head and neck.

Large-scale test of hypothesised associations between the angiotensin-converting-enzyme insertion/deletion polymorphism and myocardial infarction in about 5000 cases and 6000 controls

BACKGROUND The original report of a possible association between myocardial infarction and the insertion/deletion (I/D) polymorphism of the gene for the angiotensin-1-converting enzyme (ACE) indicated a risk ratio for myocardial infarction with the DD genotype of 1.34 (95% CI 1.05-1.70), and the association was claimed to be particularly strong in a retrospectively defined low-risk subgroup (3.2 [95% CI 1.7-5.9). Subsequent investigations reached varying conclusions, but all were small, and much larger studies were needed. METHODS 4629 myocardial infarction cases and 5934 controls were compared. Cases were UK men aged 30-54 years and women aged 30-64 years recruited on presentation to hospital with confirmed myocardial infarction. Controls were aged 30-64 years with no history of cardiovascular disease, but were siblings or children of myocardial infarction survivors, or spouses of such relatives. All risk-ratio calculations allow for this relatedness of some of the controls. An updated meta-analysis of previous studies was also conducted. FINDINGS The ACE DD genotype was found in 1359 (29.4%) of the myocardial infarction cases and in 1637 (27.6%) of the controls (risk ratio 1.10 [95% CI 1.00-1.21]). The association between myocardial infarction and the DD genotype did not seem to be stronger in the subgroup defined as low risk by previously used criteria (234 [28%] of 836 cases and 911 [28%] of 3253 controls: risk ratio 1.04 [95% CI 0.87-1.24]), or in any other subgroup. Nor was the ACE I/D genotype predictive of subsequent survival. INTERPRETATION This study involved many more cases than any previously reported study of this question, but did not confirm the existence of any substantial association. In an updated meta-analysis of these results with those of previously published studies, the risk ratio for myocardial infarction with the DD genotype seems to lie in the range 1.0 to about 1.1. Although an increase in risk of up to about 10-15% cannot be ruled out, substantially more extreme risks can be. Moreover, there are not especially strong associations in the subgroups previously selected for emphasis. These findings illustrate the need for some studies of candidate genes to involve much larger populations than is customary, without undue emphasis on retrospectively defined subgroups.

Chlamydia trachomatis infection as a risk factor for invasive cervical cancer

Cervical carcinoma is a sexually transmitted disease most strongly linked with human‐papillomavirus (HPV) infection. We conducted a prospective sero‐epidemiologic study to evaluate the role of Chlamydia trachomatis infection in the development of cervical carcinoma, with invasive cancer as an end point. A nested case‐control study within a cohort of 530000 Nordic women was performed. Linking data files of 3 Nordic serum banks and the cancer registries of Finland, Norway and Sweden identified 182 women with invasive cervical carcinoma diagnosed during a mean follow‐up of 5 years after serum sampling. The serum samples of the cases and matched cancer‐free controls were analyzed for IgG antibodies to C. trachomatis, C. pneumoniae (a control microbe) and HPV types 16, 18 and 33, as well as for serum cotinine (an indicator of tobacco smoking). Serum antibodies to C. trachomatis were associated with an increased risk for cervical squamous‐cell carcinoma (HPV‐ and smoking‐adjusted OR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.3–3.5). The association remained also after adjustment for smoking both in HPV16‐seronegative and ‐seropositive cases (OR, 3.0; 95% CI, 1.8–5.1; OR, 2.3, 95% CI, 0.8–7.0 respectively). No such association was found for C. pneumoniae. Our prospective study provides sero‐epidemiologic evidence that infection with C. trachomatis confers an increased risk for subsequent development of invasive squamous‐cell carcinoma of the uterine cervix. Int. J. Cancer 85:35–39, 2000.

Cigarette smoking, tar yields, and non-fatal myocardial infarction: 14000 cases and 32000 controls in the United Kingdom

Abstract Objectives: To assess the effects of cigarette smoking on the incidence of non-fatal myocardial infarction, and to compare tar in different types of manufactured cigarettes. Methods: In the early 1990s responses to a postal questionnaire were obtained from 13926 survivors of myocardial infarction (cases) recently discharged from hospitals in the United Kingdom and 32389 of their relatives (controls). Blood had been obtained from cases soon after admission for the index myocardial infarction and was also sought from the controls. 4923 cases and 6880 controls were current smokers of manufactured cigarettes with known tar yields. Almost all tar yields were 7-9 or 12-15 mg/cigarette (mean 7.5 mg for low tar (<10 mg) and 13.3 for medium tar (>/=10 mg)). The cited risk ratios were standardised for age and sex and compared myocardial infarction rates in current cigarette smokers with those in non-smokers who had not smoked cigarettes regularly in the past 10 years. Results: At ages 30-49 the rates of myocardial infarction in smokers were about five times those in non-smokers (as defined); at ages 50-59 they were three times those in non-smokers, and even at ages 60-79 they were twice as great as in non-smokers (risk ratio 6.3, 4.7, 3.1, 2.5, and 1.9 at 30-39, 40-49, 50-59, 60-69, 70-79 respectively; each 2P<0.00001). After standardisation for age, sex, and amount smoked, the rate of non-fatal myocardial infarction was 10.4% (SD 5.4) higher in medium tar than in low tar cigarette smokers (2P=0.06). This percentage was not significantly greater at ages 30-59 (16.6% (7.1)) than at 60-79 (1.0% (8.5)). In both age ranges the difference in risk between cigarette smokers and non-smokers was much larger than the difference between one type of cigarette and another (risk ratio 3.39 and 3.95 at ages 30-59 for smokers of similar numbers of low and of medium tar cigarettes, and risk ratio 2.35 and 2.37 at ages 60-79). Most possible confounding factors that could be tested for were similar in low and medium tar users, with no significant differences in blood lipid or albumin concentrations. Conclusion: The present study indicates that the imminent change of tar yields in the European Union to comply with an upper limit of 12 mg/cigarette will not increase (and may somewhat decrease) the incidence of myocardial infarction, unless they indirectly help perpetuate tobacco use. Even low tar cigarettes still greatly increase rates of myocardial infarction, however, especially among people in their 30s, 40s, and 50s, and far more risk is avoided by not smoking than by changing from one type of cigarette to another.

Cigarette smoking, tar yields, and non-fatal myocardial infarction: 14,000 cases and 32,000 controls in the United Kingdom. The International Studies of Infarct Survival (ISIS) Collaborators.

Abstract Objectives: To assess the effects of cigarette smoking on the incidence of non-fatal myocardial infarction, and to compare tar in different types of manufactured cigarettes. Methods: In the early 1990s responses to a postal questionnaire were obtained from 13926 survivors of myocardial infarction (cases) recently discharged from hospitals in the United Kingdom and 32389 of their relatives (controls). Blood had been obtained from cases soon after admission for the index myocardial infarction and was also sought from the controls. 4923 cases and 6880 controls were current smokers of manufactured cigarettes with known tar yields. Almost all tar yields were 7-9 or 12-15 mg/cigarette (mean 7.5 mg for low tar (<10 mg) and 13.3 for medium tar (>/=10 mg)). The cited risk ratios were standardised for age and sex and compared myocardial infarction rates in current cigarette smokers with those in non-smokers who had not smoked cigarettes regularly in the past 10 years. Results: At ages 30-49 the rates of myocardial infarction in smokers were about five times those in non-smokers (as defined); at ages 50-59 they were three times those in non-smokers, and even at ages 60-79 they were twice as great as in non-smokers (risk ratio 6.3, 4.7, 3.1, 2.5, and 1.9 at 30-39, 40-49, 50-59, 60-69, 70-79 respectively; each 2P<0.00001). After standardisation for age, sex, and amount smoked, the rate of non-fatal myocardial infarction was 10.4% (SD 5.4) higher in medium tar than in low tar cigarette smokers (2P=0.06). This percentage was not significantly greater at ages 30-59 (16.6% (7.1)) than at 60-79 (1.0% (8.5)). In both age ranges the difference in risk between cigarette smokers and non-smokers was much larger than the difference between one type of cigarette and another (risk ratio 3.39 and 3.95 at ages 30-59 for smokers of similar numbers of low and of medium tar cigarettes, and risk ratio 2.35 and 2.37 at ages 60-79). Most possible confounding factors that could be tested for were similar in low and medium tar users, with no significant differences in blood lipid or albumin concentrations. Conclusion: The present study indicates that the imminent change of tar yields in the European Union to comply with an upper limit of 12 mg/cigarette will not increase (and may somewhat decrease) the incidence of myocardial infarction, unless they indirectly help perpetuate tobacco use. Even low tar cigarettes still greatly increase rates of myocardial infarction, however, especially among people in their 30s, 40s, and 50s, and far more risk is avoided by not smoking than by changing from one type of cigarette to another.

Helicobacter pylori infection and early onset myocardial infarction: case-control and sibling pairs study

Abstract Objectives: To examine the association between coronary heart disease and chronic Helicobacter pylori infection. Design: Case-control study of myocardial infarction at young ages and study of sibling pairs with one member affected and the other not. Setting: United Kingdom Participants: 1122 survivors of suspected acute myocardial infarction at ages 30-49 (mean age 44 years) and 1122 age and sex matched controls with no history of coronary heart disease; 510 age and sex matched pairs of siblings (mean age 59 years) in which one sibling had survived myocardial infarction and one had no history of coronary heart disease. Main outcome measures: Serological evidence of chronic infection with H pylori. Results: 472 (42%) of the 1122 cases with early onset myocardial infarction were seropositive for H pylori antibodies compared with 272 (24%) of the 1122 age and sex matched controls, giving an odds ratio of 2.28 (99% confidence interval 1.80 to 2.90). This odds ratio fell to 1.87 (1.42 to 2.47; P<0.0001) after smoking and indicators of socioeconomic status were adjusted for and to 1.75 (1.29 to 2.36) after additional adjustment for blood lipid concentrations and obesity. Only 158 of the 510 pairs of siblings were discordant for H pylori status; among these, 91 cases and 67 controls were seropositive (odds ratio 1.33 (0.86 to 2.05)). No strong correlations were observed between H pylori seropositivity and measurements of other risk factors for coronary heart disease (plasma lipids, fibrinogen, C reactive protein, albumin, etc). Conclusion: In the context of results from other relevant studies, these two studies suggest a moderate association between coronary heart disease and H pylori seropositivity that cannot be fully accounted for by other risk factors. But even if this association is causal and largely reversible by eradication of chronic infection, very large randomised trials would be needed to show this. Key messages Most previous studies of associations between chronic H pylori infection and coronary heart disease have been too small or prone to bias This case-control study found myocardial infarction was twice as common in people infected with H pylori as in those not infected Among sibling pairs, myocardial infarction was about a third more common in seropositive people than those who were seronegative These results support a weak association between H pylori infection and coronary heart disease

Epidemiology and factor analysis of obesity, type II diabetes, hypertension, and dyslipidemia (syndrome X) on the Island of Kosrae, Federated States of Micronesia.

Objectives: Obesity, type II diabetes, hypertension, and dyslipidemia are major causes of morbidity and mortality throughout the world. Though these disorders often cluster in individuals and families and are collectively known as syndrome X, the basis for this aggregation is not well understood. To further understand the pathogenesis of syndrome X, a comprehensive epidemiological study was undertaken on the Pacific Island of Kosrae, Federated States of Micronesia (FSM). Methods: The entire adult (>20 years of age) population of Kosrae underwent a clinical evaluation that included a questionnaire that noted the participants’ sex, family data including listing of biological parents, siblings, and children, smoking status, village of residence, age and health status. The medical evaluation included: anthropometric measures (weight, height, waist, hip), serum chemistries (leptin, fasting blood sugar (FBS), insulin, total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), and apolipoproteins B and A-I (apo B and apo A-I) and blood pressure (BP) measurements. Results: Obesity (BMI ≥35) was found in 24%, diabetes (FBS ≥126 or 2-hour oral glucose tolerance test ≥200) in 12%, hypertension (SBP ≥140 or DBP ≥90) in 17%, and dyslipidemia (TC ≥240 or TG ≥200 or apo B ≥120 or apo A-I ≤88) in 20% of the population. Significant covariate effects after multivariate analysis were as follows: sex affected the frequency of all four disorders, parity affected the frequency of dyslipidemia, smoking affected the frequency of obesity and diabetes, village of residence affected the frequency of obesity, hypertension, and dyslipidemia, and age affected the frequency of all four disorders. Factor analysis identified four independent factors that explained 73% of the total variance of the entire data set: factor 1 (weight, waist, leptin, insulin, and TG), factor 2 (TC, TG, apo B, apo A-I, and insulin), factor 3 (systolic and diastolic BP, FBS, waist and weight), and factor 4 (apo A-I, TG, leptin, and weight). Conclusions: This population-based study on the Island of Kosrae suggests that syndrome X is a composite of 4 independent factors: obesity with diabetes and hypertriglyceridemia, combined hyperlipidemia with diabetes, hypertension with obesity and diabetes, and increased HDL-low TG with thinness and high leptin. Further studies to identify the genetic components of these factors as well as the individual traits are under way.

No excess risk of cervical carcinoma among women seropositive for both HPV16 and HPV6/11

Human papillomavirus (HPV) types 16 and 18 are the major risk factors for cervical carcinoma, whereas HPV types 6 and 11 cause benign genital lesions. We wanted to study the joint effect of simultaneous infections with the oncogenic and non‐oncogenic HPV types on risk of subsequent development of cervical carcinoma. A cohort of 530,000 women who had donated blood samples to Nordic serum banks between 1973 and 1994 was followed up by linkage to national cancer registries. We identified 182 prospective cases with invasive cervical carcinoma and selected 538 matched controls at random. HPV 6, 11, 16, 18 and 33 seropositivity was used as a marker for the different HPV infections, and seropositivity for Chlamydia trachomatis and cotinine were used as markers for risk‐taking sexual behavior and smoking respectively. The adjusted odds ratio (OR) of cervical squamous‐cell carcinoma (SCC) was 2.2 for HPV6/11 among HPV16 seronegatives and 5.5 for HPV16 among HPV6/11 seronegatives. Assuming multiplicative joint effect, the expected OR for seropositivity to both HPV6/11 and HPV16 would have been 12, but the observed OR was 1.0. The antagonistic interaction was statistically significant (p = 0.001) and present also under deterministic considerations of possible misclassification bias. Antagonistic interactions were also detected for combinations of HPV16 and HPV18 and of HPV16 and HPV33. The results are in line with the concept that HPV‐specific immunity protects against SCC and support primary prevention of SCC by vaccination against the HPVs. Int. J. Cancer 80:818–822, 1999.

The joint effects of apolipoprotein B, apolipoprotein A1, LDL cholesterol, and HDL cholesterol on risk: 3510 cases of acute myocardial infarction and 9805 controls

Aims Plasma levels of apolipoprotein B (apoB), the main surface protein on LDL particles, and LDL-C, the amount of cholesterol in those particles, are closely correlated and, considered separately, are positive risk factors. Plasma levels of apolipoprotein A1, the main surface protein on HDL particles, and HDL-C, the amount of cholesterol in those particles, are also closely correlated with each other and, considered separately, are negative risk factors. The interdependence of these four risk factors is unclear. Methods and results Case–control study among 3510 acute myocardial infarction patients (without prior vascular disease, diabetes, or statin use) in UK hospitals and 9805 controls. Relative risks (age, sex, smoking, and obesity-adjusted) were more strongly related to apoB than to LDL-C and, given apoB, more strongly negatively related to apoA1 than to HDL-C. The ratio apoB/apoA1 was uncorrelated with time since symptom onset in cases, was reproducible in samples collected a few years apart in controls (correlation 0.81), and encapsulated almost all the predictive power of these four measurements. Its effect was continuous, substantial throughout the UK normal range [relative risk, top vs. bottom decile of this ratio, 7.3 (95% CI 5.8–9.2)] and varied little with age. The ratio apoB/apoA1 was substantially more informative about risk (χ12 = 550) than were commonly used measures such as LDL-C/HDL-C, total/HDL cholesterol, non-HDL cholesterol, and total cholesterol (χ12 = 407, 334, 204, and 105, respectively). Given apoB and apoA1, the relationship with risk of LDL-C was reversed, and this reversal was strengthened by appropriate allowance for random measurement errors in two correlated variables. Given usual apoB, lower LDL-C (consistent with smaller LDL particles) was associated with higher risk (P < 0.0001). During the first 8 h after symptom onset HDL-C increased by about 10%, precluding reliable assessment of the joint relationship of apoA1 and pre-onset HDL-C with risk in such retrospective case–control studies. Conclusion Apolipoprotein ratios are more informative about risk than lipid fractions are. This suggests that, among lipoprotein particles of a particular type (LDL or HDL), some smaller and larger subtypes differ in their effects on risk. Direct measurements of even more specific subtypes of lipoprotein particles may be even more informative about risk.

Is Smoking an Independent Risk Factor for Invasive Cervical Cancer? A Nested Case-Control Study Within Nordic Biobanks

The strong correlation between smoking and exposure to oncogenic human papillomaviruses (HPVs) has made it difficult to verify the independent role of smoking in cervical carcinogenesis. Thus, the authors evaluated this role. Five large Nordic serum banks containing samples from more than 1,000,000 subjects were linked with nationwide cancer registries (1973-2003). Serum samples were retrieved from 588 women who developed invasive cervical cancer and 2,861 matched controls. The samples were analyzed for cotinine (a biomarker of tobacco exposure) and antibodies to HPV types 16 and 18, herpes simplex virus type 2, and Chlamydia trachomatis. Smoking was associated with the risk of squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) among HPV16- and/or HPV18-seropositive heavy smokers (odds ratio=2.7, 95% confidence interval: 1.7, 4.3). A similar risk of SCC (odds ratio=3.2, 95% confidence interval: 2.6, 4.0) was found in heavy smokers after adjustment for HPV16/18 antibodies. The point estimates increased with increasing age at diagnosis and increasing cotinine level. This study confirms that smoking is an independent risk factor for cervical cancer/SCC in women infected with oncogenic HPVs. These findings emphasize the importance of cervical cancer prevention among women exposed to tobacco smoke.