Lindsay Y. King

Development of an Accurate Index for Predicting Outcomes of Patients With Acute Liver Failure

BACKGROUND & AIMS Patients with acute liver failure (ALF) have high mortality and frequently require liver transplantation (LT); few reliable prognostic markers are available. Levels of M30, a cleavage product of cytokeratin-18 caspase, are significantly increased in serum samples from patients with ALF who die or undergo LT. We developed a prognostic index for ALF based on level of M30 and commonly measured clinical variables (called the Acute Liver Failure Study Group [ALFSG] index) and compared its accuracy with that of the Kings College criteria (KCC) and Model for End Stage Liver Disease (MELD). We also validated our model in an independent group of patients with ALF. METHODS Serum levels of M30 and M65 antigen (the total cytokeratin-18 fragment, a marker of apoptosis and necrosis) were measured on 3 of the first 4 days following admission of 250 patients with ALF. Logistic regression was used to determine whether the following factors, measured on day 1, were associated with LT or death: age, etiology; coma grade; international normalized ratio (INR); serum pH; body mass index; levels of creatinine, bilirubin, phosphorus, arterial ammonia, and lactate; and log(10) M30 and log(10) M65. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) was calculated for the ALFSG and other indices. RESULTS Coma grade, INR, levels of bilirubin and phosphorus, and log(10) M30 value at study entry most accurately identified patients who would require LT or die. The ALFSG index identified these patients with 85.6% sensitivity and 64.7% specificity. Based on comparison of AUROC values, the ALFSG Index (AUROC, 0.822) better identified patients most likely to require LT or die than the KCC (AUROC, 0.654) or MELD (AUROC, 0.704) (P = .0002 and P = .0010, respectively). We validated these findings in a separate group of 250 patients with ALF. CONCLUSIONS The ALFSG index, a combination of clinical markers and measurements of the apoptosis biomarker M30, better predicts outcomes of patients with ALF than the KCC or MELD.

Statin use is associated with a reduced risk of fibrosis progression in chronic hepatitis C

BACKGROUND & AIMS Therapies that slow fibrosis progression in chronic liver disease are needed. Animal models have demonstrated that statins prevent the progression of hepatic fibrosis, but human data is lacking so far. We evaluated the association between statins and fibrosis progression in the HALT-C trial cohort. METHODS Subjects with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) and advanced hepatic fibrosis underwent serial liver biopsies over 3.5 years. The primary outcome was a ⩾ 2-point increase in the Ishak fibrosis score on at least one of two serial biopsies. We used complementary log-log regression analysis to assess the association between statins and fibrosis progression among subjects without baseline cirrhosis. RESULTS Fibrosis progression occurred in 3/29 (10%) statin users and 145/514 (29%) non-users. The unadjusted hazard ratio (HR) for fibrosis progression among statin users compared to non-users was 0.32 (95% CI 0.10-0.99). This association remained significant after adjusting for established predictors of histological outcome, including body mass index, platelets and hepatic steatosis (adjusted HR 0.31; 95% CI 0.10-0.97). The mean change in Ishak fibrosis score over the 3.5 year study period was -0.34 (SE 0.18) for statin users compared to +0.42 (SE 0.07) for non-users (p = 0.006, after adjustment for baseline fibrosis score). CONCLUSIONS Statin use is associated with a reduced risk of fibrosis progression in advanced CHC. Our findings suggest a potential role for statins in preventing liver disease progression.

A genomic and clinical prognostic index for hepatitis C-related early-stage cirrhosis that predicts clinical deterioration

Objective The number of patients with HCV-related cirrhosis is increasing, leading to a rising risk of complications and death. Prognostic stratification in patients with early-stage cirrhosis is still challenging. We aimed to develop and validate a clinically useful prognostic index based on genomic and clinical variables to identify patients at high risk of disease progression. Design We developed a prognostic index, comprised of a 186-gene signature validated in our previous genome-wide profiling study, bilirubin (>1 mg/dL) and platelet count (<100 000/mm3), in an Italian HCV cirrhosis cohort (training cohort, n=216, median follow-up 10 years). The gene signature test was implemented using a digital transcript counting (nCounter) assay specifically developed for clinical use and the prognostic index was evaluated using archived specimens from an independent cohort of HCV-related cirrhosis in the USA (validation cohort, n=145, median follow-up 8 years). Results In the training cohort, the prognostic index was associated with hepatic decompensation (HR=2.71, p=0.003), overall death (HR=6.00, p<0.001), hepatocellular carcinoma (HR=3.31, p=0.001) and progression of Child–Turcotte–Pugh class (HR=6.70, p<0.001). The patients in the validation cohort were stratified into high-risk (16%), intermediate-risk (42%) or low-risk (42%) groups by the prognostic index. The high-risk group had a significantly increased risk of hepatic decompensation (HR=7.36, p<0.001), overall death (HR=3.57, p=0.002), liver-related death (HR=6.49, p<0.001) and all liver-related adverse events (HR=4.98, p<0.001). Conclusions A genomic and clinical prognostic index readily available for clinical use was successfully validated, warranting further clinical evaluation for prognostic prediction and clinical trial stratification and enrichment for preventive interventions.

Hepatitis C Virus–Associated Cancer

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is one of the major etiologic agents of liver cancer. HCV is an RNA virus that, unlike hepatitis B virus, is unable to integrate into the host genome. Through complex interactions between viral and host proteins that induce host responses and promote inflammation, fibrosis, and ultimately cirrhosis, HCV infection can result in the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The HCV oncogenic process involves genetic and epigenetic alterations and oncogenic effects mediated by viral proteins in the activation of cellular oncogenes, inactivation of tumor-suppressor genes, and dysregulation of multiple signal-transduction pathways. Advances in genetics and gene expression profiling have enhanced our current understanding of the pathways involved in HCV-associated liver cancer development. In this review, we summarize the current understanding of mechanisms of hepatocarcinogenesis induced by HCV infection.

Nsaid use and risk of hepatocellular carcinoma and intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma: The liver cancer pooling project

Chronic inflammation plays a pivotal role in the pathogenesis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC), the two most common types of liver cancer. A number of prior experimental studies have suggested that nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), including aspirin and ibuprofen, may potentially protect against liver cancer. However, no observational study has examined the association between aspirin duration and dose or other over-the-counter non-aspirin NSAIDs, such as ibuprofen, and liver cancer incidence. Furthermore, the association between NSAID use and risk of ICC is unclear. As part of the Liver Cancer Pooling Project, we harmonized data on 1,084,133 individuals (HCC = 679, ICC = 225) from 10 U.S.-based prospective cohort studies. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to evaluate multivariable-adjusted HRs and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Current aspirin use, versus nonuse, was inversely associated with HCC (HR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.57–0.81), which persisted when restricted to individuals not using non-aspirin NSAIDs and in a 5- and 10-year lag analysis. The association between aspirin use and HCC risk was stronger for users who reported daily use, longer duration use, and lower dosage. Ibuprofen use was not associated with HCC risk. Aspirin use was associated with a reduced ICC risk in men (HR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.42–0.98) but not women (HR, 1.34; 95% CI, 0.89–2.01; Pinteraction = 0.01). The observed inverse association between aspirin use and liver cancer in our study, together with previous data, suggests the merit of future intervention studies of aspirin and other agents that affect chronic inflammatory pathways for HCC and possibly ICC. Cancer Prev Res; 8(12); 1156–62. ©2015 AACR.

Reproductive factors, exogenous hormone use and risk of hepatocellular carcinoma among US women: results from the Liver Cancer Pooling Project

Background:Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurs less commonly among women than men in almost all regions of the world. The disparity in risk is particularly notable prior to menopause suggesting that hormonal exposures during reproductive life may be protective. Exogenous oestrogenic exposures such as oral contraceptives (OCs), however, have been reported to increase risk, suggesting that estrogens may be hepatocarcinogenic. To examine the effects of reproductive factors and exogenous hormones on risk, we conducted a prospective analysis among a large group of US women.Methods:In the Liver Cancer Pooling Project, a consortium of US-based cohort studies, data from 799 500 women in 11 cohorts were pooled and harmonised. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to generate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the associations of reproductive factors and exogenous hormones with HCC (n=248).Results:Bilateral oophorectomy was associated with a significantly increased risk of HCC (HR=2.67, 95% CI=1.22–5.85), which did not appear to be related to a shorter duration of exposure to endogenous hormones or to menopausal hormone therapy use. There was no association between OC use and HCC (HR=1.12, 95% CI=0.82–1.55). Nor were there associations with parity, age at first birth, age at natural menopause, or duration of fertility.Conclusions:The current study suggests that bilateral oophorectomy increases the risk of HCC but the explanation for the association is unclear. There was no association between OC use and HCC risk. Examination of endogenous hormone levels in relation to HCC may help to clarify the findings of the current study.

Coffee consumption and risk of hepatocellular carcinoma and intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma by sex: The Liver Cancer Pooling Project

Background: Coffee consumption has been reported to be inversely associated with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the most common type of liver cancer. Caffeine has chemopreventive properties, but whether caffeine is responsible for the coffee–HCC association is not well studied. In addition, few studies have examined the relationship by sex, and no studies have examined whether there is an association between coffee and intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC), the second most common type of liver cancer. Methods: In the Liver Cancer Pooling Project, a consortium of U.S.-based cohort studies, data from 1,212,893 individuals (HCC, n = 860; ICC, n = 260) in nine cohorts were pooled. Multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using proportional hazards regression. Results: Higher coffee consumption was associated with lower risk of HCC (HR>3 cups/day vs. non-drinker, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.53–0.99; Ptrend cups/day = <0.0001). More notable reduced risk was seen among women than men (Pinteraction = 0.07). Women who consumed more than three cups of coffee per day were at a 54% lower risk of HCC (HR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.26–0.81), whereas men had more modest reduced risk of HCC (HR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.63–1.37). The associations were stronger for caffeinated coffee (HR>3 cups/day vs. non-drinker, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.50–1.01) than decaffeinated coffee (HR, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.55–1.54). There was no association between coffee consumption and ICC. Conclusions: These findings suggest that, in a U.S. population, coffee consumption is associated with reduced risk of HCC. Impact: Further research into specific coffee compounds and mechanisms that may account for these associations is needed. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 24(9); 1398–406. ©2015 AACR.

Circulating Soluble CD163 is Associated with Steatohepatitis and Advanced Fibrosis in Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

OBJECTIVES:Soluble CD163 (sCD163), a marker of Kupffer cell activation detectable in serum, correlates with inflammation and fibrosis in chronic viral hepatitis, but its role in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease is unknown. We hypothesized that sCD163 would correlate with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease activity and fibrosis.METHODS:Liver biopsies and serum were obtained from 145 obese subjects undergoing gastric bypass surgery. Subjects were divided into four groups based on fibrosis stage and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease activity score (NAS); Group 1: F0, NAS=0; Group 2: F<2, 0<NAS<5; Group 3: NAS≥5, F<3; or Group 4: F≥3, any NAS. Serum sCD163 and the monocyte/macrophage marker sCD14 were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Relationships between sCD163, sCD14, fibrosis stage, and NAS were examined. Area under the receiver operating charateristic for the diagnosis of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis based on the Clinical Research Network definition was calculated.RESULTS:sCD163 increased with progressive liver histology, with lowest values in normal histology and highest levels in those with nonalcoholic steatohepatitis and advanced fibrosis (Group 1: 552 ng/ml, Group 2: 721 ng/ml, Group 3: 803 ng/ml, and Group 4:1,031; P=0.001). sCD14 also differed significantly across groups (Group 1: 1,877 ng/ml, Group 2: 1632 ng/ml, Group 3: 1,706 ng/ml, and Group 4: 2111; P=0.008, respectively). sCD163 correlated with steatosis grade (P<0.001), lobular inflammation (P=0.033), and hepatocyte ballooning (P<0.001). In a multivariable ordered logistic regression model, there was a significant association between every 100 ng/ml increase in sCD163 and higher fibrosis stage, with an odds ratio of 1.16 (95% confidence interval 1.02–1.31), P=0.020. The odds ratios of the association between every 100 ng/ml increase in sCD163 and higher NAS was 1.17 (95% confidence interval 1.04–1.32), P=0.010. A sCD163-based predictive score demonstrated an area under the receiver operating charateristic of 0.70 (95% confidence interval: 0.58–0.82) for the diagnosis of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis. Soluble CD14 did not correlate with fibrosis stage or NAS.CONCLUSIONS:In obese subjects, serum sCD163, but not sCD14, correlated with fibrosis stage and NAS. These data support a role for activated Kupffer cells in the pathogenesis of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis and fibrosis, and suggest potential clinical utility for assessment of sCD163 levels.

Host Genetics Predict Clinical Deterioration in HCV-Related Cirrhosis

Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the epidermal growth factor (EGF, rs4444903), patatin-like phospholipase domain-containing protein 3 (PNPLA3, rs738409) genes, and near the interleukin-28B (IL28B, rs12979860) gene are linked to treatment response, fibrosis, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in chronic hepatitis C. Whether these SNPs independently or in combination predict clinical deterioration in hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related cirrhosis is unknown. We genotyped SNPs in EGF, PNPLA3, and IL28B from liver tissue from 169 patients with biopsy-proven HCV cirrhosis. We estimated risk of clinical deterioration, defined as development of ascites, encephalopathy, variceal hemorrhage, HCC, or liver-related death using Cox proportional hazards modeling. During a median follow-up of 6.6 years, 66 of 169 patients experienced clinical deterioration. EGF non-AA, PNPLA3 non-CC, and IL28B non-CC genotypes were each associated with increased risk of clinical deterioration in age, sex, and race-adjusted analysis. Only EGF non-AA genotype was independently associated with increased risk of clinical deterioration (hazard ratio [HR] 2.87; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.31–6.25) after additionally adjusting for bilirubin, albumin, and platelets. Compared to subjects who had 0–1 unfavorable genotypes, the HR for clinical deterioration was 1.79 (95%CI 0.96–3.35) for 2 unfavorable genotypes and 4.03 (95%CI 2.13–7.62) for unfavorable genotypes for all three loci (Ptrend<0.0001). In conclusion, among HCV cirrhotics, EGF non-AA genotype is independently associated with increased risk for clinical deterioration. Specific PNPLA3 and IL28B genotypes also appear to be associated with clinical deterioration. These SNPs have potential to identify patients with HCV-related cirrhosis who require more intensive monitoring for decompensation or future therapies preventing disease progression.

Cost-Effectiveness of Risk Score–Stratified Hepatocellular Carcinoma Screening in Patients with Cirrhosis

OBJECTIVES: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance with biannual ultrasound is currently recommended for all patients with cirrhosis. However, clinical implementation of this “one‐size‐fits‐all” approach is challenging as evidenced by its low application rate. We aimed to evaluate the cost‐effectiveness of risk‐stratified HCC surveillance strategies in patients with cirrhosis. METHODS: A Markov decision‐analytic modeling was performed to simulate a cohort of 50‐year‐old subjects with compensated cirrhosis. Risk‐stratified HCC surveillance strategies was implemented, in which patients were stratified into high‐, intermediate‐, or low‐risk groups by HCC risk biomarker–based scores and assigned to surveillance modalities tailored to HCC risk (2 non‐risk‐stratified and 14 risk‐stratified strategies) and compared with non‐stratified biannual ultrasound. RESULTS: Quality‐adjusted life expectancy gains for biannual ultrasound in all patients and risk‐stratified strategies compared with no surveillance were 1.3 and 0.9–2.1 years, respectively. Compared with the current standard of biannual ultrasound in all cirrhosis patients, risk‐stratified strategies applying magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and/or ultrasound only in high‐ and intermediate‐risk patients, without screening in low‐risk patients, were cost‐effective. Abbreviated MRI (AMRI) for high‐ and intermediate‐risk patients had the lowest incremental cost‐effectiveness ratio (ICER) of