Lingchuan Guo

Particle size and chemical constituents of ambient particulate pollution associated with cardiovascular mortality in Guangzhou, China.

Though significant associations between particulate matter (PM) air pollution and cardiovascular diseases have been widely reported, it remains unclear what characteristics, such as particle size and chemical constituents, may be responsible for the effects. A time-series model was applied to examine the cardiovascular effects of particle size (for the period of 2009-2011) and chemical constituents (2007-2010) in Guangzhou, we controlled for potential confounders in the model, such as time trends, day of the week, public holidays, meteorological factors and influenza epidemic. We found significant associations of cardiovascular mortality with PM10, PM2.5 and PM1; the excess risk (ER) was 6.10% (95% CI: 1.76%, 10.64%), 6.11% (95% CI: 1.76%, 10.64%) and 6.48% (95% CI: 2.10%, 11.06%) for per IQR increase in PM10, PM2.5 and PM1 at moving averages for the current day and the previous 3 days (lag03), respectively. We did not find significant effects of PM2.5-10 and PM1-2.5. For PM2.5 constituents, we found that organic carbon, elemental carbon, sulfate, nitrate and ammonium were significantly associated with cardiovascular mortality, the corresponding ER for an IQR concentration increase at lag03 was 1.13% (95% CI: 0.10%, 2.17%), 2.77% (95% CI: 0.72%, 4.86%), 2.21% (95% CI: 1.05%, 3.38%), 1.98% (95% CI: 0.54%, 3.44%), and 3.38% (95% CI: 1.56%, 5.23%), respectively. These results were robust to adjustment of other air pollutants and they remained consistent in various sensitivity analyses by changing model parameters. Our study suggests that PM1 and constituents from combustion and secondary aerosols might be important characteristics of PM pollution associated with cardiovascular mortality in Guangzhou.

Mortality burden of ambient fine particulate air pollution in six Chinese cities: Results from the Pearl River Delta study.

BACKGROUND Epidemiological studies have reported significant association between ambient fine particulate matter air pollution (PM2.5) and mortality, however, few studies have investigated the relationship of mortality with PM2.5 and associated mortality burden in China, especially in a multicity setting. METHODS We investigated the PM2.5-mortality association in six cities of the Pearl River Delta region from 2013 to 2015. We used generalized additive Poisson models incorporating penalized smoothing splines to control for temporal trend, temperature, and relative humidity. We applied meta-analyses using random-effects models to pool the effect estimates in the six cities. We also examined these associations in stratified analyses by sex, age group, education level and location of death. We further estimated the mortality burden (attributable fraction and attributable mortality) due to ambient PM2.5 exposures. RESULTS During the study period, a total of 316,305 deaths were recorded in the study area. The analysis revealed a significant association between PM2.5 and mortality. Specifically, a 10μg/m3 increase in 4-day averaged (lag03) PM2.5 concentration corresponded to a 1.76% (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.47%, 2.06%) increase in total mortality, 2.19% (95% CI: 1.80%, 2.59%) in cardiovascular mortality, and 1.68% (95% CI: 1.00%, 2.37%) in respiratory mortality. The results were generally robust to model specifications and adjustment of gaseous air pollutants. We estimated that 0.56% (95% CI: 0.47%, 0.66%) and 3.79% (95% CI: 3.14%, 4.45%) of all-cause mortalities were attributable to PM2.5 using Chinas and WHOs air quality standards as the reference, corresponding to 1661 (95% CI: 1379, 1946) and 11,176 (95% CI: 9261, 13,120) attributable premature mortalities, respectively. CONCLUSION This analysis adds to the growing body of evidence linking PM2.5 with daily mortality, and mortality burdens, particularly in one Chinese region with high levels of air pollution.

Differentiating the effects of characteristics of PM pollution on mortality from ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes

Though increasing evidence supports significant association between particulate matter (PM) air pollution and stroke, it remains unclear what characteristics, such as particle size and chemical constituents, are responsible for this association. A time-series model with quasi-Poisson function was applied to assess the association of PM pollution with different particle sizes and chemical constituents with mortalities from ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes in Guangzhou, China, we controlled for potential confounding factors in the model, such as temporal trends, day of the week, public holidays, meteorological factors and influenza epidemic. We found significant association between stroke mortality and various PM fractions, such as PM10, PM2.5 and PM1, with generally larger magnitudes for smaller particles. For the PM2.5 chemical constituents, we found that organic carbon (OC), elemental carbon (EC), sulfate, nitrate and ammonium were significantly associated with stroke mortality. The analysis for specific types of stroke suggested that it was hemorrhagic stroke, rather than ischemic stroke, that was significantly associated with PM pollution. Our study shows that various PM pollution fractions are associated with stroke mortality, and constituents primarily from combustion and secondary aerosols might be the harmful components of PM2.5 in Guangzhou, and this study suggests that PM pollution is more relevant to hemorrhagic stroke in the study area, however, more studies are warranted due to the underlying limitations of this study.

Hourly peak PM2.5 concentration associated with increased cardiovascular mortality in Guangzhou, China

Hourly peak concentration may capture health effects of ambient fine particulate matter pollution (PM2.5) better than daily averages. We examined the associations of hourly peak concentration of PM2.5 with cardiovascular mortality in Guangzhou, China. We obtained daily data on cardiovascular mortality and hourly PM2.5 concentrations in Guangzhou from 19 January 2013 through 30 June 2015. Generalized additive models were applied to evaluate the associations with adjustment for potential confounding factors. Significant associations were found between hourly peak concentrations of PM2.5 and cardiovascular mortality, particularly from ischemic heart diseases (IHD) and cerebrovascular diseases (CBD). Every 10 μg/m3 increment of hourly peak PM2.5 at lag 03 day was associated with a 1.15% (95% CI: 0.67%, 1.63%); 1.02% (95% CI: 0.30%, 1.74%) and 1.09% (95% CI: 0.27%, 1.91%) increase in mortalities from total cardiovascular diseases, IHD and CBD, respectively. The effects remained after adjustment for daily mean PM2.5 and gaseous air pollutants, though there was a high correlation between PM2.5 peak and PM2.5 mean (correlation coefficient=0.95). No significant association was observed for acute myocardial infarction (AMI). In addition to daily mean concentration of PM2.5, hourly peak concentration of PM2.5 might be one important risk factor of cardiovascular mortality and should be considered as an important air pollution indicator when assessing the possible cardiovascular effects of PM2.5.

Application of the analytic hierarchy approach to the risk assessment of Zika virus disease transmission in Guangdong Province, China

BackgroundAn international spread of Zika virus (ZIKV) infection has attracted global attention in 2015. The infection also affected Guangdong province, which is located in southern China. Multiple factors, including frequent communication with South America and Southeast Asia, suitable climate (sub-tropical) for the habitat of Aedes species, may increase the risk of ZIKV disease transmission in this region.MethodsAn analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method was used to develop a semi-quantitative ZIKV risk assessment model. After selecting indicators, we invited experts in related professions to identify the index weight and based on that a hierarchical structure was generated. Then a series of pairwise comparisons were used to determine the relative importance of the criteria. Finally, the optimal model was established to estimate the spatial and seasonal transmission risk of ZIKV.ResultsA total of 15 factors that potentially influenced the risk of ZIKV transmission were identified. The factor that received the largest weight was epidemic of ZIKV in Guangdong province (combined weight [CW] =0.37), followed by the mosquito density (CW = 0.18) and the epidemic of DENV in Guangdong province (CW = 0.14). The distribution of 123 districts/counties’ RIs of ZIKV in Guangdong through different seasons were presented, respectively.ConclusionsHigher risk was observed within Pearl River Delta including Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Jiangmen, and the risk is greater in summer and autumn compared to spring and winter.

Estimating the Excess Mortality Risk during Two Red Alert Periods in Beijing, China

The magnitude of excess mortality risk due to exposures to heavy air pollution during the red alert periods in Beijing remains unknown. A health impact assessment tool combined with the PM2.5-mortality relationship was applied to estimate the number of excess deaths due to high air pollution exposure during two red alert periods in Beijing, China in December 2015. Daily PM2.5 concentration increased from 80.2 µg/m3 to 159.8 µg/m3 during the first red alert period and from 61.9 µg/m3 to 226 µg/m3 during the second period in 2015 when compared to daily PM2.5 concentrations during the same calendar date of 2013 and 2014. It was estimated that 26 to 42 excessive deaths (including 14 to 34 cardiovascular deaths, and four to 16 respiratory deaths) occurred during the first period, and 40 to 65 excessive deaths (22 to 53 cardiovascular deaths, and six to 13 respiratory deaths) occurred during the second period. The results show that heavy smog may have substantially increased the mortality risk in Beijing, suggesting more stringent air pollution controlling measures should be implemented to protect the public health.