Linwei Ma

A multi-period optimization model for optimal planning of China's power sector with consideration of carbon mitigation—The optimal pathway under uncertain parametric conditions

Abstract Optimal planning of power industry considering carbon mitigation for a long-term future is complex, involving many technical alternatives and infinite possible plants installations, retrofitting, and decommissions. Previously the authors built a multi-period superstructure optimization planning model of Chinas power sector, gaining the optimal pathway of Chinas power sector with fixed parametric input during 2010–2050. With that model, this paper attempted to optimize pathway of Chinas power sector under uncertainty, in which the most influential parameters were uncertain. A levelized optimal pathway of Chinas power sector was gained, reliability of which was verified by comparing it with optimal results for the stochastic samples. The levelized optimal pathway showed that in the presence of carbon tax, carbon emissions of the power sector were reduced significantly by developing low-carbon technologies including nuclear power, renewables, as well as carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), and CCS would be key to reduce carbon emissions from coal power.

A long-term multi-region load-dispatch model based on grid structures for the optimal planning of China’s power sector

Abstract Chinas power sector has experienced rapid development over the past decade. With the clean energy targets and carbon mitigation objectives proposed by the government as well as rapid development of power transmission infrastructure, future potential pathways for the expansion of Chinas power sector are worth assessing. In this paper, a mathematical model, named the Long-term Multi-region Load-dispatch Grid-structure-based (LoMLoG) has been developed and a “most-likely” scenario has been created that delivers insights into optimal regional power generation, transmission and emissions profiles. The results confirm the importance of clean energy targets in driving deployment of renewable energy and maximizing its contribution to carbon mitigation of China’s power sector. In addition, the development of power transmission infrastructure will significantly influence regional power generation and transmission profiles. Last but not least, carbon mitigation approaches in the long term are discussed, and rational methods of allocating future carbon caps are presented.

Reducing China's energy consumption and CO 2 emissions by more efficient use of energy

This manuscript aims to comprehensively analyze the potential of energy consumption and CO2 emissions reduction by the improvement of energy efficiencies at various nodes of Chinas energy system. First, based on exergy analysis, we map the energy flows of China from useful energy to passive systems to expand the exergy flow diagram developed in a previous study, which already includes sub-processes from energy sources, intermediate conversion, end-use devices, to useful energy. Based on that, we present an evaluation and comparison of the potential of energy and CO2 emissions reduction by efficiency improvements of power generation technologies, end-use devices, and passive systems. The results indicate a tremendous reduction potential by the improvements of passive systems. Besides, the efficiency improvement of coal power generation and coal burners can also bring considerable reductions. We also present an analysis of the magnification effect of passive systems, which illustrates that household appliances and illumination devices can bring large reductions by slight efficiency improvements.