Lisa Brouwers

Multi-criteria decision-making of policy strategies with public-private re-insurance systems

This article describes an integrated flood catastrophe model as well as some results of a case study made in the Upper Tisza region in north-eastern Hungary: the Palad-Csecsei basin. The background data was provided through the Hungarian Academy of Sciences and complemented by interviews with different stakeholders in the region. Based on these data, for which a large degree of uncertainty is prevailing, we demonstrate how an implementation of a simulation and decision analytical model can provide insights into the effects of imposing different policy options for a flood risk management program in the region. We focus herein primarily on general options for designing a public-private insurance and reinsurance system for Hungary. Obviously, this is a multi-criteria and multi-stakeholder problem and cannot be solved using standard approaches. It should, however, be emphasised that the main purpose of this article is not to provide any definite recommendations, but rather to explore a set of policy packages ...

Artificial agent action in markets

We summarise our experiences of a number of demonstrators and simulation experiments designed to test the feasibility of using artificial decision making agents in real-time domains, and comment on the significance of our results to autonomous artificial agent action patterns in markets. Our main hypothesis is that the use of norms can extend the capability of artificial decision makers beyond what is obtained from implementing individual utility maximizers in keeping with rational choice theory.

Consensus by Simulation: a Flood Model for Participatory Policy Making

An overall goal of the Upper Tisza flood risk management project was to design a flood management policy that shared liability for disaster losses between the central government and individual households in a way that was considered acceptable by all the stakeholders. A participatory approach was adopted, where a flood simulation model was used interactively to support the process. In this chapter, we describe the design, implementation and use of the dynamic and spatially explicit flood simulation model, which incorporated novel elements like micro-level representation and Monte Carlo techniques. The model was provided with an interactive graphical interface designed to facilitate its use as a decision support tool in a participatory setting with multiple users. During this process, the model supported comparisons between pre-defined policy options, as well as the design of a new policy option on which consensus was finally reached.

Designing a flood management and insurance system in Hungary: A model-based stakeholder approach

This chapter describes how an integrated catastrophe model aided a stakeholder policy process focusing on the design of the Hungarian flood insurance system. The process incorporated views on flood insurance held by the public, local authorities, government ministries and private insurers. It was based on extensive interviews, a public survey administered to 400 persons in the risk and non-risk communities and a stakeholder workshop. Stakeholder participation was aided by a catastrophe model that could demonstrate the distribution of future flood losses among the victims, the government and the insurers depending on the design of the insurance pool. The Hungarian stakeholders reached consensus on the design of the national insurance system with all its implications for loss reduction and burden sharing. This pilot study illustrates the use of information technology in a participatory, stakeholder setting, and as such is of interest to all policy makers seeking social consensus for disaster risk management policies.