Lisa Chauvet

Aid and Performance: A Reassessment

Two visions of aid effectiveness and allocation are compared. The first, corresponding to the new aid paradigm, argues that aid is only effective if domestic policies are appropriate. The second, in contrast, argues that aid effectiveness depends on the external and climatic environment: the worse this environment, or the more vulnerable the recipient countries, the greater the effectiveness of aid. Cross-sectional econometric tests related to GDP growth on two 12-year pooled periods clearly favour the second view. The two views can be reconciled through the principle of performance-based aid allocation, where performance is defined as outcomes adjusted for the impact of environmental factors. Performance can then be measured in several manners which are subject to comparison. One approach would lead one to allocate more aid the worse the (external) environment is (for a given policy) and the better the policy is (for a given environment).

What are the Preconditions for Turnarounds in Failing States

This paper analyzes the preconditions for sustained policy turnarounds in failing states. Our dependent variable is the probability of the commencement of a turnaround that eventually becomes both sustained and substantial. We focus upon the explanatory variables of resource rents, education, and aid, distinguishing between finance and technical assistance. Overall, we find that these variables have significant and large effects on the duration of state failure. Appropriate donor intervention can radically shorten state failure, whereas additional finance, whether from aid or resource rents, has the opposite effect.

What explains aid project success in post-conflict situations ?

This paper investigates the effectiveness of post-conflict aid at the project level and aims to identify post-conflict situations as a window of opportunity for project success. The Independent Evaluation Group dataset provides extensive information on the characteristics of World Bank projects including an independent rating of their success, supervision and evaluation quality. The paper estimates the probability of success of aid projects depending on the characteristics of the intervention and looks for possible special patterns in post civil war situations. The results suggest that the probability of success of World Bank projects increases as peace lasts. Supervision appears to be a crucial determinant of the success of projects, especially during the first years of peace. Although the results of the sector-level analysis need to be taken with caution, the authors find that projects in the transport sector and in the urban development sector appear more successful in post-conflict environments. On the contrary, education projects seem less successful and therefore need to be highly supervised. Projects in the private sector should wait as they face a higher probability of failure in the first years of peace.

The security challenges in conflict prone countries

La version attachee est un rapport produit dans la serie Copenhagen Consensus Conflicts Challenge Papers (2008),61p.

Paradise Lost: The Costs of State Failure in the Pacific

Abstract Globally, state failure is hugely costly, in terms of lost output and the high costs imposed by failing states on their neighbours. This paper examines the cost of failing states in the Pacific. The Pacific region differs from other regions: since its countries are islands the neighbourhood spillovers that normally generate these costs do not apply. The cost of state failure for an island is much lower than for other states, but state failure is more costly to the state itself, as opposed to its neighbours, if the state is an island. This may be due to the greater openness of islands, implying greater flight of financial and human capital. Because neighbours are not directly affected by state failure in the Pacific, any possible interventions should be centred on the humanitarian concern.

Les "batailles" de Paris et de New York: Une analyse du comportement électoral transnational des migrants sénégalais en France et aux États-Unis

Dual nationality and citizenship, and external voting rights have been granted by a majority of countries for the last years. This article uses original data collected through a multi-sited survey among Senegalese migrants living in France and in the United States during the first round of Senegals 2012 presidential election to analyse the electoral behaviour of Senegalese migrants and social remittances between destination and origin countries. Senegalese migrants are found to be strongly associated with high level of electoral par- ticipation not only in their origin country but also in their host country for those having dual citi- zenship. Our data also reveal a large range of social remittances between destination and origin countries, which translate into voting recommen- dations that exert strong influence when they come from the migrants

Third DIAL Conference on Barriers to Development

The DIAL Conference on Development Economics, held every two years since 2011, is attended by over 150 researchers meeting to discuss recent contributions from research in development and internati...