Lisa Deutsch

The Anthropocene: From Global Change to Planetary Stewardship

Over the past century, the total material wealth of humanity has been enhanced. However, in the twenty-first century, we face scarcity in critical resources, the degradation of ecosystem services, and the erosion of the planet’s capability to absorb our wastes. Equity issues remain stubbornly difficult to solve. This situation is novel in its speed, its global scale and its threat to the resilience of the Earth System. The advent of the Anthropence, the time interval in which human activities now rival global geophysical processes, suggests that we need to fundamentally alter our relationship with the planet we inhabit. Many approaches could be adopted, ranging from geo-engineering solutions that purposefully manipulate parts of the Earth System to becoming active stewards of our own life support system. The Anthropocene is a reminder that the Holocene, during which complex human societies have developed, has been a stable, accommodating environment and is the only state of the Earth System that we know for sure can support contemporary society. The need to achieve effective planetary stewardship is urgent. As we go further into the Anthropocene, we risk driving the Earth System onto a trajectory toward more hostile states from which we cannot easily return.

A framework for the practical application of the concepts of critical natural capital and strong sustainability

This paper develops a methodology for identifying that natural capital—called critical natural capital (CNC)—the maintenance of which is essential for environmental sustainability. By consideration of the characteristics of natural capital, of the environmental functions that these characteristics enable natural capital to perform and of the importance of these functions to humans and the biosphere, it shows how sustainability standards in respect of these environmental functions may be derived. The difference between the current situation and these standards is termed the sustainability gap. The methodology that emerges from bringing these ideas together into a single analytical framework enables policy makers to identify the extent of current unsustainability, the principal causes of it, the elements and processes of natural capital (the CNC) which need to be maintained or restored to close the sustainability gap and the costs of so doing. The framework should therefore be of use in identifying priorities and policies for moving towards environmental sustainability.

The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration

The ‘Great Acceleration’ graphs, originally published in 2004 to show socio-economic and Earth System trends from 1750 to 2000, have now been updated to 2010. In the graphs of socio-economic trends, where the data permit, the activity of the wealthy (OECD) countries, those countries with emerging economies, and the rest of the world have now been differentiated. The dominant feature of the socio-economic trends is that the economic activity of the human enterprise continues to grow at a rapid rate. However, the differentiated graphs clearly show that strong equity issues are masked by considering global aggregates only. Most of the population growth since 1950 has been in the non-OECD world but the world’s economy (GDP), and hence consumption, is still strongly dominated by the OECD world. The Earth System indicators, in general, continued their long-term, post-industrial rise, although a few, such as atmospheric methane concentration and stratospheric ozone loss, showed a slowing or apparent stabilisation over the past decade. The post-1950 acceleration in the Earth System indicators remains clear. Only beyond the mid-20th century is there clear evidence for fundamental shifts in the state and functioning of the Earth System that are beyond the range of variability of the Holocene and driven by human activities. Thus, of all the candidates for a start date for the Anthropocene, the beginning of the Great Acceleration is by far the most convincing from an Earth System science perspective.

Feeding Cities: Food Security and Ecosystem Support in an Urbanizing World

Bangalore is the principal administrative, cultural, commercial, industrial, and knowledge capital of the state of Karnataka, with a population approaching nine million. Economic growth has had a major impact on ecosystems and biodiversity, leading to the encroachment and pollution of water bodies, the felling of thousands of trees, and urbanization of green spaces. The city periphery experiences accelerated growth, with changes in ecosystems, land use and governance leading to impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity. Vegetation in the city core is species rich but less dense compared to other cities, with a high proportion of exotic plant species, and high faunal and insect diversity, although shaped by social preferences that vary across location and time. Bangalore’s green spaces and lakes are embedded within multiple land use categories, and governed by a multiplicity of institutions with overlapping, often uncoordinated jurisdictional responsibilities. Civil society also signifi cantly shapes the environmental agenda in Bangalore, taking an active and vibrant role in respect of environmental issues. In the coming decades, climate change and scarcity of access to clean water are likely to pose signifi cant challenges for the city, exacerbated by the loss of lakes, wetlands and green spaces. Socioeconomically vulnerable populations will be especially susceptible to these changes. In this context, Bangalore’s cultural character, as a location of signifi cant civic and collective action, will play a very important role in shaping urban environmental protection and conservation efforts, with collaborations between citizens of different economic strata and government agencies playing an increasingly critical role.

The critical natural capital of ecosystem performance as insurance for human well-being

Abstract Complex dynamic ecosystems are important natural capital assets. We investigate how Swedish national policy has approached these assets in its work on environmental indicators. In particular, we are interested in whether or not the indicators address ecosystem performance. We discuss our inventory of Swedish indicators in the context of ecosystem services, such as source and sink functions, and the capacity of ecosystems to sustain these functions for human well-being. We find that effective indicators have been developed to reflect energy and material flows within society and how human activities put pressure on the environment. The part of natural capital that concerns living systems is reflected in several of the Swedish indicators in a progressive fashion, but indicators that capture the dynamic capacity of ecosystems in sustaining the flow of source and sink functions need to be further developed. We provide examples of recent developments that have started to address such indicators in the context of ecosystem resilience and environmental change, and discuss directions for their further development. We stress the importance of monitoring ecosystem resilience and performance to avoid undesirable state shifts and building ecological knowledge and understanding of this capacity into environmental indicators and their associated management institutions.

Planetary Stewardship in an Urbanizing World: Beyond City Limits

Cities are rapidly increasing in importance as a major factor shaping the Earth system, and therefore, must take corresponding responsibility. With currently over half the world’s population, cities are supported by resources originating from primarily rural regions often located around the world far distant from the urban loci of use. The sustainability of a city can no longer be considered in isolation from the sustainability of human and natural resources it uses from proximal or distant regions, or the combined resource use and impacts of cities globally. The world’s multiple and complex environmental and social challenges require interconnected solutions and coordinated governance approaches to planetary stewardship. We suggest that a key component of planetary stewardship is a global system of cities that develop sustainable processes and policies in concert with its non-urban areas. The potential for cities to cooperate as a system and with rural connectivity could increase their capacity to effect change and foster stewardship at the planetary scale and also increase their resource security.

The "ecological footprint" : communicating human dependence on nature's work

Modern food production is a complex, globalized system in which what we eat and how it is produced are increasingly disconnected. This thesis examines some of the ways in which global trade has changed the mix of inputs to food and feed, and how this affects food security and our perceptions of sustainability. One useful indicator of the ecological impact of trade in food and feed products is the Appropriated Ecosystem Areas (ArEAs), which estimates the terrestrial and aquatic areas needed to produce all the inputs to particular products.The method is introduced in Paper I and used to calculate and track changes in imported subsidies to Swedish agriculture over the period 1962-1994. In 1994, Swedish consumers needed agricultural areas outside their national borders to satisfy more than a third of their food consumption needs. The method is then applied to Swedish meat production in Paper II to show that the term “Made in Sweden” is often a misnomer. In 1999, almost 80% of manufactured feed for Swedish pigs, cattle and chickens was dependent on imported inputs, mainly from Europe, Southeast Asia and South America. Paper III examines ecosystem subsidies to intensive aquaculture in two nations: shrimp production in Thailand and salmon production in Norway. In both countries, aquaculture was shown to rely increasingly on imported subsidies. The rapid expansion of aquaculture turned these countries from fishmeal net exporters to fishmeal net importers, increasingly using inputs from the Southeastern Pacific Ocean.As the examined agricultural and aquacultural production systems became globalized, levels of dependence on other nations’ ecosystems, the number of external supply sources, and the distance to these sources steadily increased. Dependence on other nations is not problematic, as long as we are able to acknowledge these links and sustainably manage resources both at home and abroad. However, ecosystem subsidies are seldom recognized or made explicit in national policy or economic accounts. Economic systems are generally not designed to receive feedbacks when the status of remote ecosystems changes, much less to respond in an ecologically sensitive manner. Papers IV and V discuss the problem of “masking” of the true environmental costs of production for trade. One of our conclusions is that, while the ArEAs approach is a useful tool for illuminating environmentally-based subsidies in the policy arena, it does not reflect all of the costs. Current agricultural and aquacultural production methods have generated substantial increases in production levels, but if policy continues to support the focus on yield and production increases alone, taking the work of ecosystems for granted, vulnerability can result. Thus, a challenge is to develop a set of complementary tools that can be used in economic accounting at national and international scales that address ecosystem support and performance.We conclude that future resilience in food production systems will require more explicit links between consumers and the work of supporting ecosystems, locally and in other regions of the world, and that food security planning will require active management of the capacity of all involved ecosystems to sustain food production.

The Risks and Benefits of Genetically Modified Crops: A Multidisciplinary Perspective

The benefits and risks of any particular GM crop depend on the interactions of its ecological functions and natural history with the agroecosystem and ecosystems within which it is embedded. These evolutionary and ecological factors must be considered when assessing GM crops. We argue that the assessment of GM crops should be broadened to include alternative agricultural practices, ecosystem management, and agricultural policy. Such an assessment would be facilitated by a clearer understanding of the indirect costs of agriculture and the ecological services that support it. The benefits of GM crops should be compared to those of other means of agricultural intensification such as organic farming, integrated pest management, and agricultural policy reform. A gradual and cautious approach to the use of GM crops that relies on a truly comprehensive risk assessment could allow people to reap substantial benefits from GM crops while mitigating their serious risks.

A consensus-based simulation model for management in the Patagonia coastal zone

Abstract We applied computer modeling as a consensus building tool as part of the development of the Patagonia Coastal Zone Management Plan (PCZMP). The objective was to build a ‘scoping model’ to assess some of the important ecological and economic interlinkages of the coastal zone of Patagonia. The main purposes were to build consensus, integrate across several parts of the system. and to educate stakeholders about other sectors, not to create a detailed research model. Nevertheless, the model provides some interesting preliminary conclusions. This model indicates that the total net present value (NPV) of the fisheries sector over a period of 40 years may be increased by 13% compared with current income, with a decrease in hake fishing levels by ≈50%. The natural capital on which the fishery sector depends would be used in a more sustainable way, both ecologically and economically. The model also simulates possible impacts of oil spills and dumping of tanker ballast water on the penguin population. which can have a significant negative impact on tourist industry incomes. The model implies that the importance of the tourist sector in Patagonia could in the future greatly exceed the value of the fishing industry (by 29%). The results argue for more emphasis on integrating the currently disparate components of coastal zone management.

Ecosystem Subsidies to Swedish Food Consumption from 1962 to 1994

Analysis of food consumption and agricultural production trends in Sweden has focused on domestic food production levels and yields, overlooking human dependence on ecosystem support. We estimate the ecosystem areas appropriated (ArEAs) for agricultural production (crop and animal feed production and grazing in arable land and marine production for fishmeal used in animal feed) to satisfy Swedish food consumption needs from 1962 to 1994. The total agroecosystem areas worldwide supporting Swedish food consumption (that is, domestic production less exports plus imports) have declined by almost one-third since the 1960s as a result of consumption changes and agricultural intensification. By 1994, Swedish consumption of domestic food crops was halved and consumers relied on agricultural areas outside Sweden to satisfy more than a third (35%) of food consumption needs. Surprisingly, 74% of manufactured animal feed ArEAs were from imported inputs. Moreover, marine ArEAs equal to 12% of the total appropriated areas were needed to support fishmeal usage in animal feed. The results show that domestic agricultural areas do not support Swedish food consumption and that the bulk of manufactured feed used in animal products’ production in Sweden is supplied by ecosystems of other nations. These are hidden subsidies of nature, not explicit in Swedish national agricultural policy. Sweden must recognize its high level of dependence on the capacity of ecosystems of other nations to supply its food needs. Ignorance of ecosystem support may increase vulnerability.