Lisa Emberson

Simultaneously Mitigating Near-Term Climate Change and Improving Human Health and Food Security

Why Wait? Tropospheric ozone can be dangerous to human health, can be harmful to vegetation, and is a major contributor to climate warming. Black carbon also has significant negative effects on health and air quality and causes warming of the atmosphere. Shindell et al. (p. 183) present results of an analysis of emissions, atmospheric processes, and impacts for each of these pollutants. Seven measures were identified that, if rapidly implemented, would significantly reduce global warming over the next 50 years, with the potential to prevent millions of deaths worldwide from outdoor air pollution. Furthermore, some crop yields could be improved by decreasing agricultural damage. Most of the measures thus appear to have economic benefits well above the cost of their implementation. Reducing anthropogenic emissions of methane and black carbon would have multiple climate and health benefits. Tropospheric ozone and black carbon (BC) contribute to both degraded air quality and global warming. We considered ~400 emission control measures to reduce these pollutants by using current technology and experience. We identified 14 measures targeting methane and BC emissions that reduce projected global mean warming ~0.5°C by 2050. This strategy avoids 0.7 to 4.7 million annual premature deaths from outdoor air pollution and increases annual crop yields by 30 to 135 million metric tons due to ozone reductions in 2030 and beyond. Benefits of methane emissions reductions are valued at

Modelling stomatal ozone flux across Europe.

700 to

The Effects of Tropospheric Ozone on Net Primary Productivity and Implications for Climate Change

5000 per metric ton, which is well above typical marginal abatement costs (less than

Global Air Quality and Health Co-benefits of Mitigating Near-Term Climate Change through Methane and Black Carbon Emission Controls

250). The selected controls target different sources and influence climate on shorter time scales than those of carbon dioxide–reduction measures. Implementing both substantially reduces the risks of crossing the 2°C threshold.

Impacts of Air Pollutants on Vegetation in Developing Countries

A model has been developed to estimate stomatal ozone flux across Europe for a number of important species. An initial application of this model is illustrated for two species, wheat and beech. The model calculates ozone flux using European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) model ozone concentrations in combination with estimates of the atmospheric, boundary layer and stomatal resistances to ozone transfer. The model simulates the effect of phenology, irradiance, temperature, vapour pressure deficit and soil moisture deficit on stomatal conductance. These species-specific microclimatic parameters are derived from meteorological data provided by the Norwegian Meteorological Institute (DNMI), together with detailed land-use and soil type maps assembled at the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI). Modelled fluxes are presented as mean monthly flux maps and compared with maps describing equivalent values of AOT40 (accumulated exposure over threshold of 40 ppb or nl l(-1)), highlighting the spatial differences between these two indices. In many cases high ozone fluxes were modelled in association with only moderate AOT40 values. The factors most important in limiting ozone uptake under the model assumptions were vapour pressure deficit (VPD), soil moisture deficit (for Mediterranean regions in particular) and phenology. The limiting effect of VPD on ozone uptake was especially apparent, since high VPDs resulting in stomatal closure tended to co-occur with high ozone concentrations. Although further work is needed to link the ozone uptake and deposition model components, and to validate the model with field measurements, the present results give a clear indication of the possible implications of adopting a flux-based approach for future policy evaluation.

Modelling of stomatal conductance and ozone flux of Norway spruce: comparison with field data.

Tropospheric ozone (O(3)) is a global air pollutant that causes billions of dollars in lost plant productivity annually. It is an important anthropogenic greenhouse gas, and as a secondary air pollutant, it is present at high concentrations in rural areas far from industrial sources. It also reduces plant productivity by entering leaves through the stomata, generating other reactive oxygen species and causing oxidative stress, which in turn decreases photosynthesis, plant growth, and biomass accumulation. The deposition of O(3) into vegetation through stomata is an important sink for tropospheric O(3), but this sink is modified by other aspects of environmental change, including rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, rising temperature, altered precipitation, and nitrogen availability. We review the atmospheric chemistry governing tropospheric O(3) mass balance, the effects of O(3) on stomatal conductance and net primary productivity, and implications for agriculture, carbon sequestration, and climate change.

Modelling and Mapping Ozone Deposition in Europe

Background: Tropospheric ozone and black carbon (BC), a component of fine particulate matter (PM ≤ 2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter; PM2.5), are associated with premature mortality and they disrupt global and regional climate. Objectives: We examined the air quality and health benefits of 14 specific emission control measures targeting BC and methane, an ozone precursor, that were selected because of their potential to reduce the rate of climate change over the next 20–40 years. Methods: We simulated the impacts of mitigation measures on outdoor concentrations of PM2.5 and ozone using two composition-climate models, and calculated associated changes in premature PM2.5- and ozone-related deaths using epidemiologically derived concentration–response functions. Results: We estimated that, for PM2.5 and ozone, respectively, fully implementing these measures could reduce global population-weighted average surface concentrations by 23–34% and 7–17% and avoid 0.6–4.4 and 0.04–0.52 million annual premature deaths globally in 2030. More than 80% of the health benefits are estimated to occur in Asia. We estimated that BC mitigation measures would achieve approximately 98% of the deaths that would be avoided if all BC and methane mitigation measures were implemented, due to reduced BC and associated reductions of nonmethane ozone precursor and organic carbon emissions as well as stronger mortality relationships for PM2.5 relative to ozone. Although subject to large uncertainty, these estimates and conclusions are not strongly dependent on assumptions for the concentration–response function. Conclusions: In addition to climate benefits, our findings indicate that the methane and BC emission control measures would have substantial co-benefits for air quality and public health worldwide, potentially reversing trends of increasing air pollution concentrations and mortality in Africa and South, West, and Central Asia. These projected benefits are independent of carbon dioxide mitigation measures. Benefits of BC measures are underestimated because we did not account for benefits from reduced indoor exposures and because outdoor exposure estimates were limited by model spatial resolution.

Impacts and mitigation of excess diesel-related NOx emissions in 11 major vehicle markets

The predicted increases in emissions of primary pollutants in many rapidly industrializing countries may have severe consequences for the health and productivity of forest trees and agricultural crops. This paper presents a review of air pollution impacts on vegetation in developing countries by summarising information describing the direct impacts to vegetation caused by a number of air pollutants (sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), ozone (O3) and Suspended Particulate Matter (SPM)). This information has been collected by experts from a number of rapidly industrializing countries in Asia, Latin America and Africa and includes observations of visible injury in the field and the use of transect studies and controlled experimental investigations to ascribe damage to different pollutant concentrations. The ability to synthesise this information to define exposure-response relationships and subsequent air quality guidelines similar to those established in North America and Europe is assessed. In addition, the use of regional and global models describing pollution concentrations is discussed with reference to assessing the extent of adverse impacts and identifying regions likely to be most at risk from air pollution, both for the present day and in the future. The evidence summarised in the paper clearly shows that current pollutant concentrations experienced in many developing countries, particularly Asia, can result in severe damage to vegetation and that without appropriate control measures such damage is likely to worsen in the future as pollutant emissions increase.

Modelling ozone fluxes to forests for risk assessment: status and prospects

It has been proposed that stomatal flux of ozone would provide a more reliable basis than ozone exposure indices for the assessment of the risk of ozone damage to vegetation across Europe. However, implementation of this approach requires the development of appropriate models which need to be rigorously tested against actual data collected under field conditions. This paper describes such an assessment of the stomatal component of the model described by Emberson et al. (2000. Modelling stomatal ozone flux across Europe. Environmental Pollution 110). Model predictions are compared with field measurements of both stomatal conductance (g(s)) and calculated ozone flux for shoots of mature Norway spruce (Picea abies) growing in the Tyrol Mountains in Austria. The model has been developed to calculate g(s) as a function of leaf phenology and four environmental variables: photosynthetic flux density (PFD), temperature, vapour pressure deficit (VPD) and soil moisture deficit (SMD). The model was run using climate data measured on site, although the SMD component was omitted since the necessary data were not available. The model parameterisation for Norway spruce had previously been collected from the scientific literature and therefore established independently from the measurement study. Overall, strong associations were found between model predictions and measured values of stomatal conductance to ozone (GO(3)) and calculated stomatal ozone flux (FO(3)). Average diurnal profiles of GO(3) and FO(3) showed good agreement between the field data and modelled values except during the morning period of 1990. The diurnal pattern of ozone flux was determined primarily by PFD and VPD, as there was little diurnal variation in ozone concentration. In general, the model predicted instances of high ozone flux satisfactorily, indicating its potential applicability in identifying areas of high ozone risk for this species.

Seasonal ozone response of mature beech trees (Fagus sylvatica) at high altitude in the Bavarian forest (Germany) in comparison with young beech grown in the field and in phytotrons.

A new dry deposition module has been developed for European-scale mapping and modelling of ozone deposition fluxes (Emberson et al., 2000a,b). The module is being implemented in the photochemical long-range transport model of EMEP that is currently used to estimate exceedance of the existing critical levels for ozone within the UN ECE LRTAP programme. The deposition model evaluates the atmospheric, boundary layer and surface resistances to ozone transfer with the calculation of the dry deposition velocity performed according to a standard resistance formulation. The approach differs from other existing methods through the use of a detailed stomatal uptake model that describes stomatal conductance as a function of plant species, phenology and four environmental variables (air temperature, solar radiation, water vapour pressure deficit and soil moisture deficit). Comparison of preliminary model outputs for selected land-cover types indicate that the model is capable of predicting the seasonal and diurnal range in deposition velocities that have been reported previously in the literature. The application of this deposition scheme enables calculations of ambient ozone concentrations to be made using a biologically based method that can distinguish stomatal and non-stomatal components of total ozone deposition. The ability to estimate stomatal ozone fluxes (according to vegetation type, phenology and spatial location) that are consistent with evaluations of atmospheric ozone concentrations will be helpful in future assessments of ozone impacts to vegetation.