Lisa G. Suter

Impact of Obesity and Knee Osteoarthritis on Morbidity and Mortality in Older Americans

BACKGROUND Obesity and knee osteoarthritis are among the most frequent chronic conditions affecting Americans aged 50 to 84 years. OBJECTIVE To estimate quality-adjusted life-years lost due to obesity and knee osteoarthritis and health benefits of reducing obesity prevalence to levels observed a decade ago. DESIGN The U.S. Census and obesity data from national data sources were combined with estimated prevalence of symptomatic knee osteoarthritis to assign persons aged 50 to 84 years to 4 subpopulations: nonobese without knee osteoarthritis (reference group), nonobese with knee osteoarthritis, obese without knee osteoarthritis, and obese with knee osteoarthritis. The Osteoarthritis Policy Model, a computer simulation model of knee osteoarthritis and obesity, was used to estimate quality-adjusted life-year losses due to knee osteoarthritis and obesity in comparison with the reference group. SETTING United States. PARTICIPANTS U.S. population aged 50 to 84 years. MEASUREMENTS Quality-adjusted life-years lost owing to knee osteoarthritis and obesity. RESULTS Estimated total losses of per-person quality-adjusted life-years ranged from 1.857 in nonobese persons with knee osteoarthritis to 3.501 for persons affected by both conditions, resulting in a total of 86.0 million quality-adjusted life-years lost due to obesity, knee osteoarthritis, or both. Quality-adjusted life-years lost due to knee osteoarthritis and/or obesity represent 10% to 25% of the remaining quality-adjusted survival of persons aged 50 to 84 years. Hispanic and black women had disproportionately high losses. Model findings suggested that reversing obesity prevalence to levels seen 10 years ago would avert 178,071 cases of coronary heart disease, 889,872 cases of diabetes, and 111,206 total knee replacements. Such a reduction in obesity would increase the quantity of life by 6,318,030 years and improve life expectancy by 7,812,120 quality-adjusted years in U.S. adults aged 50 to 84 years. LIMITATIONS Comorbidity incidences were derived from prevalence estimates on the basis of life expectancy of the general population, potentially resulting in conservative underestimates. Calibration analyses were conducted to ensure comparability of model-based projections and data from external sources. CONCLUSION The number of quality-adjusted life-years lost owing to knee osteoarthritis and obesity seems to be substantial, with black and Hispanic women experiencing disproportionate losses. Reducing mean body mass index to the levels observed a decade ago in this population would yield substantial health benefits. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE The National Institutes of Health and the Arthritis Foundation.

Lifetime risk and age at diagnosis of symptomatic knee osteoarthritis in the US.

To estimate the incidence and lifetime risk of diagnosed symptomatic knee osteoarthritis (OA) and the age at diagnosis of knee OA based on self‐reports in the US population.

Lifetime Medical Costs of Knee Osteoarthritis Management in the United States: Impact of Extending Indications for Total Knee Arthroplasty

The impact of increasing utilization of total knee arthroplasty (TKA) on lifetime costs in persons with knee osteoarthritis (OA) is understudied.

Trajectories of risk after hospitalization for heart failure, acute myocardial infarction, or pneumonia: retrospective cohort study.

Objective To characterize the absolute risks for older patients of readmission to hospital and death in the year after hospitalization for heart failure, acute myocardial infarction, or pneumonia. Design Retrospective cohort study. Setting 4767 hospitals caring for Medicare fee for service beneficiaries in the United States, 2008-10. Participants More than 3 million Medicare fee for service beneficiaries, aged 65 years or more, surviving hospitalization for heart failure, acute myocardial infarction, or pneumonia. Main outcome measures Daily absolute risks of first readmission to hospital and death for one year after discharge. To illustrate risk trajectories, we identified the time required for risks of readmission to hospital and death to decline 50% from maximum values after discharge; the time required for risks to approach plateau periods of minimal day to day change, defined as 95% reductions in daily changes in risk from maximum daily declines after discharge; and the extent to which risks are higher among patients recently discharged from hospital compared with the general elderly population. Results Within one year of hospital discharge, readmission to hospital and death, respectively, occurred following 67.4% and 35.8% of hospitalizations for heart failure, 49.9% and 25.1% for acute myocardial infarction, and 55.6% and 31.1% for pneumonia. Risk of first readmission had declined 50% by day 38 after hospitalization for heart failure, day 13 after hospitalization for acute myocardial infarction, and day 25 after hospitalization for pneumonia; risk of death declined 50% by day 11, 6, and 10, respectively. Daily change in risk of first readmission to hospital declined 95% by day 45, 38, and 45; daily change in risk of death declined 95% by day 21, 19, and 21. After hospitalization for heart failure, acute myocardial infarction, or pneumonia, the magnitude of the relative risk for hospital admission over the first 90 days was 8, 6, and 6 times greater than that of the general older population; the relative risk of death was 11, 8, and 10 times greater. Conclusions Risk declines slowly for older patients after hospitalization for heart failure, acute myocardial infarction, or pneumonia and is increased for months. Specific risk trajectories vary by discharge diagnosis and outcome. Patients should remain vigilant for deterioration in health for an extended time after discharge. Health providers can use knowledge of absolute risks and their changes over time to better align interventions designed to reduce adverse outcomes after discharge with the highest risk periods for patients.

National Patterns of Risk-Standardized Mortality and Readmission After Hospitalization for Acute Myocardial Infarction, Heart Failure, and Pneumonia: Update on Publicly Reported Outcomes Measures Based on the 2013 Release

ABSTRACTBACKGROUNDThe Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services publicly reports risk-standardized mortality rates (RSMRs) within 30-days of admission and, in 2013, risk-standardized unplanned readmission rates (RSRRs) within 30-days of discharge for patients hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction (AMI), heart failure (HF), and pneumonia. Current publicly reported data do not focus on variation in national results or annual changes.OBJECTIVEDescribe U.S. hospital performance on AMI, HF, and pneumonia mortality and updated readmission measures to provide perspective on national performance variation.DESIGNTo identify recent changes and variation in national hospital-level mortality and readmission for AMI, HF, and pneumonia, we performed cross-sectional panel analyses of national hospital performance on publicly reported measures.PARTICIPANTSFee-for-service Medicare and Veterans Health Administration beneficiaries, 65 years or older, hospitalized with principal discharge diagnoses of AMI, HF, or pneumonia between July 2009 and June 2012. RSMRs/RSRRs were calculated using hierarchical logistic models risk-adjusted for age, sex, comorbidities, and patients’ clustering among hospitals.ResultsMedian (range) RSMRs for AMI, HF, and pneumonia were 15.1% (9.4–21.0%), 11.3% (6.4–17.9%), and 11.4% (6.5–24.5%), respectively. Median (range) RSRRs for AMI, HF, and pneumonia were 18.2% (14.4–24.3%), 22.9% (17.1–30.7%), and 17.5% (13.6–24.0%), respectively. Median RSMRs declined for AMI (15.5% in 2009–2010, 15.4% in 2010–2011, 14.7% in 2011–2012) and remained similar for HF (11.5% in 2009–2010, 11.9% in 2010–2011, 11.7% in 2011–2012) and pneumonia (11.8% in 2009–2010, 11.9% in 2010–2011, 11.6% in 2011–2012). Median hospital-level RSRRs declined: AMI (18.5% in 2009–2010, 18.5% in 2010–2011, 17.7% in 2011–2012), HF (23.3% in 2009–2010, 23.1% in 2010–2011, 22.5% in 2011–2012), and pneumonia (17.7% in 2009–2010, 17.6% in 2010–2011, 17.3% in 2011–2012).ConclusionsWe report the first national unplanned readmission results demonstrating declining rates for all three conditions between 2009–2012. Simultaneously, AMI mortality continued to decline, pneumonia mortality was stable, and HF mortality experienced a small increase.

Number of Persons With Symptomatic Knee Osteoarthritis in the US: Impact of Race and Ethnicity, Age, Sex, and Obesity.

The prevalence of symptomatic knee osteoarthritis (OA) has been increasing over the past several decades in the US, concurrent with an aging population and the growing obesity epidemic. We quantify the impact of these factors on the number of persons with symptomatic knee OA in the early decades of the 21st century.

Hospital readmission performance and patterns of readmission: retrospective cohort study of Medicare admissions

Objectives To determine whether high performing hospitals with low 30 day risk standardized readmission rates have a lower proportion of readmissions from specific diagnoses and time periods after admission or instead have a similar distribution of readmission diagnoses and timing to lower performing institutions. Design Retrospective cohort study. Setting Medicare beneficiaries in the United States. Participants Patients aged 65 and older who were readmitted within 30 days after hospital admission for heart failure, acute myocardial infarction, or pneumonia in 2007-09. Main outcome measures Readmission diagnoses were classified with a modified version of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services’ condition categories, and readmission timing was classified by day (0-30) after hospital discharge. Hospital 30 day risk standardized readmission rates over the three years of study were calculated with public reporting methods of the US federal government, and hospitals were categorized with bootstrap analysis as having high, average, or low readmission performance for each index condition. High and low performing hospitals had ≥95% probability of having an interval estimate respectively less than or greater than the national 30 day readmission rate over the three year period of study. All remaining hospitals were considered average performers. Results For readmissions in the 30 days after the index admission, there were 320 003 after 1 291 211 admissions for heart failure (4041 hospitals), 102 536 after 517 827 admissions for acute myocardial infarction (2378 hospitals), and 208 438 after 1 135 932 admissions for pneumonia (4283 hospitals). The distribution of readmissions by diagnosis was similar across categories of hospital performance for all three conditions. High performing hospitals had fewer readmissions for all common diagnoses. Median time to readmission was similar by hospital performance for heart failure and acute myocardial infarction, though was 1.4 days longer among high versus low performing hospitals for pneumonia (P<0.001). Findings were unchanged after adjustment for other hospital characteristics potentially associated with readmission patterns. Conclusions High performing hospitals have proportionately fewer 30 day readmissions without differences in readmission diagnoses and timing, suggesting the possible benefit of strategies that lower risk of readmission globally rather than for specific diagnoses or time periods after hospital stay.

Variation in hospital-level risk-standardized complication rates following elective primary total hip and knee arthroplasty

BACKGROUND Little is known about the variation in complication rates among U.S. hospitals that perform elective total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA) procedures. The purpose of this study was to use National Quality Forum (NQF)-endorsed hospital-level risk-standardized complication rates to describe variations in, and disparities related to, hospital quality for elective primary THA and TKA procedures performed in U.S. hospitals. METHODS We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of national Medicare Fee-for-Service data. The study cohort included 878,098 Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries, sixty-five years or older, who underwent elective THA or TKA from 2008 to 2010 at 3479 hospitals. Both medical and surgical complications were included in the composite measure. Hospital-specific complication rates were calculated from Medicare claims with use of hierarchical logistic regression to account for patient clustering and were risk-adjusted for age, sex, and patient comorbidities. We determined whether hospitals with higher proportions of Medicaid patients and black patients had higher risk-standardized complication rates. RESULTS The crude rate of measured complications was 3.6%. The most common complications were pneumonia (0.86%), pulmonary embolism (0.75%), and periprosthetic joint infection or wound infection (0.67%). The median risk-standardized complication rate was 3.6% (range, 1.8% to 9.0%). Among hospitals with at least twenty-five THA and TKA patients in the study cohort, 103 (3.6%) were better and seventy-five (2.6%) were worse than expected. Hospitals with the highest proportion of Medicaid patients had slightly higher but similar risk-standardized complication rates (median, 3.6%; range, 2.0% to 7.1%) compared with hospitals in the lowest decile (3.4%; 1.7% to 6.2%). Findings were similar for the analysis involving the proportion of black patients. CONCLUSIONS There was more than a fourfold difference in risk-standardized complication rates across U.S. hospitals in which elective THA and TKA are performed. Although hospitals with higher proportions of Medicaid and black patients had rates similar to those of hospitals with lower proportions, there is a continued need to monitor for disparities in outcomes. These findings suggest there are opportunities for quality improvement among hospitals in which elective THA and TKA procedures are performed.

The number of persons with symptomatic knee osteoarthritis in the United States: Impact of race/ethnicity, age, sex, and obesity

The prevalence of symptomatic knee osteoarthritis (OA) has been increasing over the past several decades in the US, concurrent with an aging population and the growing obesity epidemic. We quantify the impact of these factors on the number of persons with symptomatic knee OA in the early decades of the 21st century.

Role of magnetic resonance imaging in the diagnosis and prognosis of rheumatoid arthritis.

To systematically evaluate the literature addressing the role of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in the diagnosis and prognosis of early undifferentiated inflammatory arthritis and rheumatoid arthritis (RA).