Lisa Stolzenberg

Racial Threat and Social Control: A Test of The Political, Economic, and Threat of Black Crime Hypotheses

The often observed association between the size of the black population and the amount of social control imposed on blacks has been interpreted as consistent with one of three conceptually distinct perspectives: (1) the political threat hypothesis, (2) the economic threat hypothesis, and (3) the threat of black crime hypothesis. Although these three hypotheses advance differing conceptualizations of threat, adjudicating between them has proven difficult. The current study uses county-level data drawn from South Carolinas National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS), race-specific voting data, and demographic data to investigate the validity of each of these racial threat hypotheses. Results from a pooled cross-sectional time-series analysis show that black-on-white crime has a substantive positive effect on black arrest levels. In contrast, no such effect is observed for black-on-black crime. These findings taken together furnish strong support for the threat of black crime hypothesis. The curvilinear relationship between the ratio of black-to-white votes cast in a general election and black arrest levels hypothesized by the political threat hypothesis does not hold for the data analyzed. Additionally, we find no empirical support for the economic threat hypothesis. The implications of these findings are discussed.

Co-Offending and the Age-Crime Curve

It is proffered rather frequently that co-offending is the dominate form of criminal offending among juveniles because of the enhanced salience of peer pressure during adolescence, and that this enhanced propensity to co-offend is pivotal for understanding the age-crime curve. Using National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) data for 2002, the authors conduct an analysis of 466,311 criminal arrests drawn from seven states. Their findings indicate that co-offending patterns by age are not noteworthy in elucidating why participation in illegal activities rises in adolescence, peaks in early adulthood, and then declines thereafter. Once co-offending is differentiated from solo offending, with solo offending representing the bulk of criminal activity among all age groups, including juveniles, a curvilinear relationship remains between age and solo-offending and between age and co-offending. These nonlinear associations are not conditioned by an offenders sex, race, or by offense type. The authors also analyzed co-offending crimes reported to police. In many types of crimes, offenders and victims come into contact, thus allowing for the estimation of the perpetrators age notwithstanding whether an arrest was made. The findings generated in this supplemental analysis are similar to those produced using the arrest data. The results of this study have consequential theoretical implications not only because they cast doubt on the assertion that differences in co-offending levels between juveniles and adults account for the age-crime curve, but they also contravene the widely held belief that most juvenile offenses are perpetrated in the company of others rather than by individuals acting alone. Based on the new data reported here it appears that group offending is merely incidental in circumstance and thus of little etiological significance.

Race and the Probability of Arrest

Although blacks are arrested disproportionately for most types of violent crimes, disagreement persists as to the extent to which official arrest data are indicative of differential offending behavior or selection bias on the part of law enforcement personnel. Using data from the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS), we assess the effect of an offenders race on the probability of arrest for 335,619 incidents of forcible rape, robbery, and assault in 17 states during 1999. The baseline model for these comparisons is the equiprobability hypothesis that relative to violation frequency as reported by crime victims, the likelihood of arrest for white and black offenders is roughly equal. Multivariate logistic regression results show that the odds of arrest for white offenders is approximately 22% higher for robbery, 13% higher for aggravated assault, and 9% higher for simple assault than they are for black offenders. An offenders race plays no noteworthy role in the likelihood of arrest for the crime of forcible rape. These findings suggest that the disproportionately high arrest rate for black citizens is most likely attributable to differential involvement in reported crime rather than to racially biased law enforcement practices.

Police organizational factors, the racial composition of the police, and the probability of arrest

While past research has considered the effects of police organizational characteristics on various outcomes, including arrest rates, relatively little research has explored the role of the racial composition of the police and its association with race‐specific arrest rates. Furthermore, no research has explored the association between arrest probabilities for Black and White offenders and police organizational factors. Using data from the 2000 National Incident‐Based Reporting System (NIBRS), the 2000 Law Enforcement Management and Administrative Statistics (LEMAS), and the 2000 decennial Census, the present exploratory study employs multilevel modeling to examine the association between police organizational factors including the percentage of the police force that is Black and arrest probabilities for offenders involved in 19,099 aggravated assaults and 100,859 simple assaults across 105 small cities. Results show that for simple assaults, the relative size of the Black police force is associated with the risk of arrest for both Black and White offenders. Furthermore, departments with relatively more Black police officers are found to have the largest gap in the arrest probabilities for White and Black offenders, although Whites are more likely to be arrested for assaults than Blacks, regardless of the racial composition of the police. Results also show those departments with more written policy directives, relatively larger administrative component, a higher educational‐level requirement, and centralized police departments have the highest arrest probabilities. Implications of these findings and recommendations for further research are discussed.

Race and Cumulative Discrimination in the Prosecution of Criminal Defendants

Most research investigates the effect of a defendant’s race on severity of imposed legal sanction at only one of several decision points that comprise the criminal justice system. This myopic focus on what can be termed episodic discrimination is problematic because racial discrimination evinced at one decision point may be amplified, negated, or even reversed at other decision points. Here we synthesize estimates of a defendant’s race on the severity of imposed legal sanction at each of the decision points encountered by a defendant as he or she progresses through the criminal justice system. Although initial results show that the effect of race on severity of outcome depends on the specific decision point analyzed, a synthesis of these race estimates in a meta-analysis reveals that the odds of receiving a severe sanction is approximately 42% higher for a Black defendant even after controlling for prior record and other legal and extralegal variables. Thus, although the influence of a defendant’s race on the severity of sanction is statistically discernible at just two of the eight criminal justice decision points, a substantive cumulative racial discriminatory effect is evident when all the individual decision points are considered in their totality.

The Effect of Organizational and Environmental Factors on Police Misconduct

This study analyzes the association between police organizational and environmental factors and police misconduct using data derived from the new National Police Misconduct Statistics and Reporting Project (2009–2010). Our use of this data set affords us the opportunity to measure police misconduct with much greater breadth than in previous studies. A negative binomial regression analysis of 497 city police departments shows the following organizational characteristics—organizational size, the presence of a full-time internal affairs unit, and in-service training—salient in predicting police misconduct. The violent crime rate is the only environmental variable that influences police misconduct. These results not only highlight the importance of organizational structure in influencing police officer misconduct but they also suggest that a police department has at its disposal the ability to institute organizational changes that can help attenuate the occurrence of police misconduct.

The effect of racial threat on interracial and intraracial crimes

Abstract Efforts to apply racial threat theory to explain interracial violence in America are restricted to historically dated events such as lynchings or to relatively infrequently occurring events such as race riots, hate crimes or interracial homicides. The present study extends extant research by using county-level data, drawn from South Carolinas National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS), race-specific voting data, and demographic data to investigate the relationship between racial threat and interracial and intraracial violent crimes. Results from a pooled cross-sectional time-series analysis show that one dimension of racial threat, economic competition, has a modest substantive effect on interracial crimes involving white perpetrators and black victims—as economic competition increases between whites and blacks, whites commit more violent crimes against blacks. Political threat has no statistically discernable effect on the white-on-black crime rate. Further, neither measure of racial threat, economic competition nor political threat is associated with the black-on-white crime rate, the white-on-white crime rate or with the black-on-black crime rate. The implications of these findings for racial threat theory are discussed.

Born to be wild. the effect of the repeal of Florida's mandatory motorcycle helmet-use law on serious injury and fatality rates

In response to political pressure, the state of Florida repealed its mandatory motorcycle helmet-use law for all operators and passengers older than the age of 21, effective July 1, 2000. Using monthly data and a multiple time-series design, the authors assessed the effect of this law change on serious injury and fatality rates for motorcycle riders aged 21 and older. Controls for serious injury and fatality rates for motorcycle riders younger than 21 years of age were included in the analyses. Maximum-likelihood results showed that the repeal of the mandatory helmet-use law in Florida had little observable effect on serious injuries or on fatalities that resulted from motorcycle crashes. Policy implications of these findings are discussed, and explanations are given as to why the repeal of the mandatory motorcycle helmet-use law in Florida was inconsequential.

The Effect of Divorce on Domestic Crime

Social scientists remain unsure as to whether divorce acts to alleviate domestic violence or whether ex-spouses become the targets of the displaced violence. Using data from the National Incident-Based Reporting System and the Census, this study investigates the relationship between the divorce rate and the domestic crime rate. The study contributes to the literature by distinguishing between spouse and ex-spouse victimization and by using a comprehensive measure of domestic crime. Results show a strong positive effect of the divorce rate on spouse and ex-spouse victimization. The length of time a married couple must be separated prior to finalizing a divorce was also found to amplify the spouse victimization rate. This finding suggests that mandatory separation periods may need to be eliminated or shortened in length to help attenuate crime between married couples seeking a divorce. Overall, these results support the view that divorce acts to shift domestic strife to ex-spouses.

Is Nonsmoking Dangerous to the Health of Restaurants? The Effect of California’s Indoor Smoking Ban on Restaurant Revenues

The state of California passed the Smoke-Free Workplace Act on January 1, 1995. This legislation effectively banned indoor smoking in all public and private workplaces including restaurants. Many restaurant owners, especially owners of restaurants that served alcohol, opposed the ban for fear that their businesses would be affected adversely because of the loss of patrons who smoked. Using an interrupted times-series autoregressive integrative moving average study design, the authors assess the effect of California’s indoor smoking ban on revenue rates for all restaurants, for non-alcohol-serving restaurants, and for alcohol-serving restaurants. Results showed that revenues for alcohol-serving restaurants dropped by about 4% immediately following the establishment of the indoor smoking ban. However, this reduction was temporary because revenues for alcohol-serving restaurants quickly returned to normal levels. Findings also revealed that the indoor smoking ban had little observable impact on the revenue rate for restaurants overall and for nonalcohol-serving restaurants.