Lisbeth Flindt Jørgensen

Nitrate reduction in geologically heterogeneous catchments--a framework for assessing the scale of predictive capability of hydrological models.

In order to fulfil the requirements of the EU Water Framework Directive nitrate load from agricultural areas to surface water in Denmark needs to be reduced by about 40%. The regulations imposed until now have been uniform, i.e. the same restrictions for all areas independent of the subsurface conditions. Studies have shown that on a national basis about 2/3 of the nitrate leaching from the root zone is reduced naturally, through denitrification, in the subsurface before reaching the streams. Therefore, it is more cost-effective to identify robust areas, where nitrate leaching through the root zone is reduced in the saturated zone before reaching the streams, and vulnerable areas, where no subsurface reduction takes place, and then only impose regulations/restrictions on the vulnerable areas. Distributed hydrological models can make predictions at grid scale, i.e. at much smaller scale than the entire catchment. However, as distributed models often do not include local scale hydrogeological heterogeneities, they are typically not able to make accurate predictions at scales smaller than they are calibrated. We present a framework for assessing nitrate reduction in the subsurface and for assessing at which spatial scales modelling tools have predictive capabilities. A new instrument has been developed for airborne geophysical measurements, Mini-SkyTEM, dedicated to identifying geological structures and heterogeneities with horizontal and lateral resolutions of 30-50 m and 2m, respectively, in the upper 30 m. The geological heterogeneity and uncertainty are further analysed by use of the geostatistical software TProGS by generating stochastic geological realisations that are soft conditioned against the geophysical data. Finally, the flow paths within the catchment are simulated by use of the MIKE SHE hydrological modelling system for each of the geological models generated by TProGS and the prediction uncertainty is characterised by the variance between the predictions of the different models.

Leaching of azoxystrobin and its degradation product R234886 from Danish agricultural field sites.

The objective was to estimate leaching of the fungicide azoxystrobin (methyl (αE)-2-[[6-(2-cyanophenoxy)-4-pyrimidinyl]oxy]-α-(methoxymethylene)benzene-acetate) and one of its primary degradation products R234886 ([(E)-2-(2-[6-cyanophenoxy)-pyrimidin-4-yloxyl]-phenyl-3-methoxyacrylic acid], major fraction) at four agricultural research fields (one sandy and three loamy) in Denmark. Water was sampled from tile drains, suction cups and groundwater wells for a minimum period of two years after application of azoxystrobin. Neither azoxystrobin nor R234886 were detected at the sandy site, but did leach through loamy soils. While azoxystrobin was generally only detected during the first couple of months following application, R234886 leached for a longer period of time and at higher concentrations (up to 2.1μgL(-1)). Azoxystrobin is classified as very toxic to aquatic organisms and R234886 as very harmful. Our study shows that azoxystrobin and R234886 can leach through loamy soils for a long period of time following application of the pesticide and thereby pose a potential threat to vulnerable aquatic environments and drinking water resources. We thus recommend the inclusion of azoxystrobin and R234886 in pesticide monitoring programmes and further investigation of their long-term ecotoxicological effects.

Association of Lithium in Drinking Water With the Incidence of Dementia

Importance Results from animal and human studies suggest that lithium in therapeutic doses may improve learning and memory and modify the risk of developing dementia. Additional preliminary studies suggest that subtherapeutic levels, including microlevels of lithium, may influence human cognition. Objective To investigate whether the incidence of dementia in the general population covaries with long-term exposure to microlevels of lithium in drinking water. Design, Setting, and Participants This Danish nationwide, population-based, nested case-control study examined longitudinal, individual geographic data on municipality of residence and data from drinking water measurements combined with time-specific data from all patients aged 50 to 90 years with a hospital contact with a diagnosis of dementia from January 1, 1970, through December 31, 2013, and 10 age- and sex-matched control individuals from the Danish population. The mean lithium exposure in drinking water since 1986 was estimated for all study individuals. Data analysis was performed from January 1, 1995, through December 31, 2013. Main Outcomes and Measures A diagnosis of dementia in a hospital inpatient or outpatient contact. Diagnoses of Alzheimer disease and vascular dementia were secondary outcome measures. In primary analyses, distribution of lithium exposure was compared between patients with dementia and controls. Results A total of 73 731 patients with dementia and 733 653 controls (median age, 80.3 years; interquartile range, 74.9-84.6 years; 44 760 female [60.7%] and 28 971 male [39.3%]) were included in the study. Lithium exposure was statistically significantly different between patients with a diagnosis of dementia (median, 11.5 µg/L; interquartile range, 6.5-14.9 µg/L) and controls (median, 12.2 µg/L; interquartile range, 7.3-16.0 µg/L; P < .001). A nonlinear association was observed. Compared with individuals exposed to 2.0 to 5.0 µg/L, the incidence rate ratio (IRR) of dementia was decreased in those exposed to more than 15.0 µg/L (IRR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.81-0.85; P < .001) and 10.1 to 15.0 µg/L (IRR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.96-1.01; P = .17) and increased with 5.1 to 10.0 µg/L (IRR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.19-1.25; P < .001). Similar patterns were found with Alzheimer disease and vascular dementia as outcomes. Conclusions and Relevance Long-term increased lithium exposure in drinking water may be associated with a lower incidence of dementia in a nonlinear way; however, confounding from other factors associated with municipality of residence cannot be excluded.

Lithium in Drinking Water and Incidence of Suicide: A Nationwide Individual-Level Cohort Study with 22 Years of Follow-Up

Suicide is a major public health concern. High-dose lithium is used to stabilize mood and prevent suicide in patients with affective disorders. Lithium occurs naturally in drinking water worldwide in much lower doses, but with large geographical variation. Several studies conducted at an aggregate level have suggested an association between lithium in drinking water and a reduced risk of suicide; however, a causal relation is uncertain. Individual-level register-based data on the entire Danish adult population (3.7 million individuals) from 1991 to 2012 were linked with a moving five-year time-weighted average (TWA) lithium exposure level from drinking water hypothesizing an inverse relationship. The mean lithium level was 11.6 μg/L ranging from 0.6 to 30.7 μg/L. The suicide rate decreased from 29.7 per 100,000 person-years at risk in 1991 to 18.4 per 100,000 person-years in 2012. We found no significant indication of an association between increasing five-year TWA lithium exposure level and decreasing suicide rate. The comprehensiveness of using individual-level data and spatial analyses with 22 years of follow-up makes a pronounced contribution to previous findings. Our findings demonstrate that there does not seem to be a protective effect of exposure to lithium on the incidence of suicide with levels below 31 μg/L in drinking water.

Lithium in drinking water and the incidence of bipolar disorder: A nation‐wide population‐based study

Animal data suggest that subtherapeutic doses, including micro doses, of lithium may influence mood, and lithium levels in drinking water have been found to correlate with the rate of suicide. It has never been investigated whether consumption of lithium may prevent the development of bipolar disorder (primary prophylaxis). In a nation‐wide population‐based study, we investigated whether long‐term exposure to micro levels of lithium in drinking water correlates with the incidence of bipolar disorder in the general population, hypothesizing an inverse association in which higher long‐term lithium exposure is associated with lower incidences of bipolar disorder.

Climate change impacts on groundwater hydrology – where are the main uncertainties and can they be reduced?

ABSTRACT This paper assesses how various sources of uncertainty propagate through the uncertainty cascade from emission scenarios through climate models and hydrological models to impacts, with a particular focus on groundwater aspects from a number of coordinated studies in Denmark. Our results are similar to those from surface water studies showing that climate model uncertainty dominates the results for projections of climate change impacts on streamflow and groundwater heads. However, we found uncertainties related to geological conceptualization and hydrological model discretization to be dominant for projections of well field capture zones, while the climate model uncertainty here is of minor importance. How to reduce the uncertainties on climate change impact projections related to groundwater is discussed, with an emphasis on the potential for reducing climate model biases through the use of fully coupled climate–hydrology models. Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor not assigned

Groundwater management and protection in Denmark: a review of pre-conditions, advances and challenges

Abstract Denmark is making continuous efforts to attain sustainable groundwater management. With groundwater constituting virtually the only resource for all water uses, groundwater management was addressed early on and has progressed over the last century. This article gives an overview of the advances, along with past and present challenges in securing sustainable groundwater utilization. The objective is to document comprehensively the Danish case and to highlight some of the unique conditions and principles that have shaped and facilitated groundwater management in the country.