Livio Di Matteo

Evidence on the determinants of Canadian provincial government health expenditures: 1965-1991

Abstract Real per capita provincial government expenditures on health care over the period 1965–1991 are examined using pooled time-series cross-section regression analysis. Key determinants of real per capita provincial government expenditures on health care over the period 1965–1991 are real provincial per capita income, the proportion of the provincial population over age 65 and real provincial per capita federal transfer revenues. Established program financing had a negative and significant impact on real per capita provincial government health expenditures in Newfoundland and Quebec. An income elasticity of 0.77 implies that health care is not a luxury good.

An analysis of Canadian cross-border travel.

Abstract Cross-border shopping by Canadians in the United States is examined for the seven Canadian provinces bordering the United States. Data on same day automobile trips and expenditures obtained from Statistics Canada, International Travel Section are analyzed using multiple regression techniques. New Brunswick, British Columbia and Ontario demonstrated the most cross-border shopping activity as measured by per capita same day automobile trips and real per capita same day automobile trip expenditures. Across the provinces, cross-border trips and expenditures were driven by per capita income, the appreciation of the Canadian dollar, the ratio of Canadian to US gasoline prices, and the onset of the Goods and Services Tax (GST). There were regional differences in the determinants of cross-border shopping. The exchange rate was most sensitive on per capita trips in Ontario, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan; while per capita income was most sensitive in New Brunswick, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan. The gasoline price variable was most sensitive in British Columbia, while the GST had its strongest impact in Alberta.

The determinants of the public–private mix in Canadian health care expenditures: 1975–1996

Abstract The health care policy issue regarding the balance between public and private health spending is examined. An empirical model of the determinants of the public–private mix in Canadian health care expenditures over the period 1975–1996 is estimated for total health care expenditures as well as separate expenditure categories such as hospitals, physicians and drugs. The results find that the key determinants of the split are per capita income, government transfer variables and the share of individual income held by the top quintile of the income distribution. Much of the public–private split is determined by long term economic forces. However, the importance of the federal health transfer variables and the variables representing shifts in fiscal transfer regimes suggest the increase in the private share of health spending since 1975 is also partly the result of the policy choice to reduce federal health transfers.

The Determinants of Expenditures by Canadian Visitors to the United States

The quarterly expenditures of Canadian visitors to the United States over the period 1979 to 1989 are analyzed using regression analysis. Both real per capita same day and one or more nights trip expenditures are positively and significantly related to real per capita income and negatively and significantly related to the real exchange rate expressed as Canadian dollars per U.S. dollars. Both same-day and one or more night expenditures demonstrate strong seasonal variation. Only one or more nights automobile trip expendi tures are positively and significantly related to the exchange rate adjusted ratio of Canadian to U.S. gasoline prices. The exchange rate is a key determinant of expenditures by Canadians visiting the United States. Same-day automobile trip expenditures, which can be taken as a proxy for cross-border shopping, exhibit a real exchange rate elasticity of -2.31%.The quarterly expenditures of Canadian visitors to the United States over the period 1979 to 1989 are analyzed using regression analysis. Both real per capita same day and one or more nights trip expenditures are positively and significantly related to real per capita income and negatively and significantly related to the real exchange rate expressed as Canadian dollars per U.S. dollars. Both same-day and one or more night expenditures demonstrate strong seasonal variation. Only one or more nights automobile trip expendi tures are positively and significantly related to the exchange rate adjusted ratio of Canadian to U.S. gasoline prices. The exchange rate is a key determinant of expenditures by Canadians visiting the United States. Same-day automobile trip expenditures, which can be taken as a proxy for cross-border shopping, exhibit a real exchange rate elasticity of -2.31%.

The Determinants of the Wealth and Asset Holding in Nineteenth-Century Canada: Evidence from Microdata

Wealth and asset holding in late-nineteenth-century Ontario are examined using a new data set of census-linked probated decedents. Hump-shaped wealth-age profiles are found, supporting the importance of demographic and life cycle forces in late-nineteenth-century financial asset accumulation. With financial asset holding more pronounced in Ontario than Quebec, the implication for Canadian economic development is that the differences in capital formation and industrialization across Ontario and Quebec are partly rooted in saving behavior. The results show that urbanization, occupational status, literacy, the number of children, and region of residence are important determinants of wealth and asset holding.

The sustainability of public health expenditures: evidence from the Canadian federation

The fiscal sustainability of government health expenditures is defined as the gap between growth rates of spending and measures of the resource base. The results show that over the period 1965–2008, real per capita Canadian provincial government health spending has grown at rates that exceed growth in basic measures of the resource base such as per capita gross domestic product (GDP), per capita federal transfers and per capita provincial government revenues. Forecasts of future spending to 2035 using determinant regression and growth rate extrapolation techniques show that Canadian provincial government health spending is projected to continue rising in the future and its share of provincial GDP will rise. While the amount spent on health is ultimately a public policy choice, provincial government health spending also cannot continue growing faster than the resource base indefinitely.The fiscal sustainability of government health expenditures is defined as the gap between growth rates of spending and measures of the resource base. The results show that over the period 1965–2008, real per capita Canadian provincial government health spending has grown at rates that exceed growth in basic measures of the resource base such as per capita gross domestic product (GDP), per capita federal transfers and per capita provincial government revenues. Forecasts of future spending to 2035 using determinant regression and growth rate extrapolation techniques show that Canadian provincial government health spending is projected to continue rising in the future and its share of provincial GDP will rise. While the amount spent on health is ultimately a public policy choice, provincial government health spending also cannot continue growing faster than the resource base indefinitely.

Wealth and the demand for life insurance: evidence from Ontario, 1892

Abstract Our analysis of the life insurance holdings of male probated decedents in Ontario in 1892 demonstrates a negative correlation between the level of personal wealth and the demand for life insurance. Consistent with the theoretical literature on the demand for life insurance, and counter to the findings in much of the empirical literature, self-insurance was a substitute for market purchases of life insurance where self-insurance capabilities are a by-product of wealth accumulation. Our evidence suggests that households primarily demanded life insurance when they lacked accumulated reserves, or wealth, for self-insurance, often early in the life cycle. The growth of the life insurance industry reflected the growth of urban population relative to farming and an increased dependence on the head of household’s earnings.

Public Homecare Expenditures in Canada

An examination of Canadian provincial government homecare expenditures finds wide differences in real per capita public homecare expenditures. The key determinants of real per capita provincial public homecare expenditures are real provincial per capita income, variables representing the proportion of the provincial population aged 65 and older, real per capita federal health transfers and the proportion of provincial GDP devoted to health expenditures. Public homecare expenditures are income elastic and sensitive to the growth of the elderly population and are projected to increase substantially by 2005. The evidence suggests that increasing federal transfers to the provinces would not be the most effective means to boost public homecare expenditures given different provincial homecare program responses.

Policy choice or economic fundamentals: what drives the public–private health expenditure balance in Canada?

The public share of Canadian total health expenditure declined between 1975 and 2005 but categories such as physicians stayed constant while drugs, other institutions, and capital spending saw increases. Regressions find the key determinants of the public share to be: the relative price of health care, per capita income, federal transfers, proportion of population over age 65, provincial dummy variables, political parties, the onset of the Canada Health Act and the Canada Health and Social Transfer (CHST), and a time trend invoking technological change. Increasing income inequality is not a factor eroding the public share. Moreover, provinces governed by center-left parties are associated with lower public shares in the physician and other health professional categories. The significance of variables like the Canada Health and Social Transfer, the Canada Health Act and provincial differences suggest the increase in the private share of health spending since 1975 is partly the result of policy choices. As the public share has only declined from approximately 76% to 70% over 30 years, it appears the shift towards private care is one of marginal increments. Canadians remain in conflict over their health care system as they appear willing to tolerate only marginal accretions in the overall private share of health spending but accept larger changes across health expenditure categories and provincial systems.The public share of Canadian total health expenditure declined between 1975 and 2005 but categories such as physicians stayed constant while drugs, other institutions, and capital spending saw increases. Regressions find the key determinants of the public share to be: the relative price of health care, per capita income, federal transfers, proportion of population over age 65, provincial dummy variables, political parties, the onset of the Canada Health Act and the Canada Health and Social Transfer (CHST), and a time trend invoking technological change. Increasing income inequality is not a factor eroding the public share. Moreover, provinces governed by center-left parties are associated with lower public shares in the physician and other health professional categories. The significance of variables like the Canada Health and Social Transfer, the Canada Health Act and provincial differences suggest the increase in the private share of health spending since 1975 is partly the result of policy choices. As the public share has only declined from approximately 76% to 70% over 30 years, it appears the shift towards private care is one of marginal increments. Canadians remain in conflict over their health care system as they appear willing to tolerate only marginal accretions in the overall private share of health spending but accept larger changes across health expenditure categories and provincial systems.

The Wealth of the Irish in Nineteenth-Century Ontario

This article examines a new set of historical microdata for insights on the wealth of the Irish in late-nineteenth-century Ontario. Regression analysis is used to determine whether or not the wealth of the Irish-born differed significantly from that of the Canadian-born and other birthplace groups. The traditional view has been that the Irish in nineteenth-century North America were impoverished and economically disadvantaged.1 In the American literature, certainly, Irish immigrants have been viewed as penniless,