Lloyd Mulenga

A Pilot Study of Food Supplementation to Improve Adherence to Antiretroviral Therapy Among Food-Insecure Adults in Lusaka, Zambia

Background:The provision of food supplementation to food-insecure patients initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) may improve adherence to medications. Methods:A home-based adherence support program at 8 government clinics assessed patients for food insecurity. Four clinics provided food supplementation, and 4 acted as controls. The analysis compared adherence (assessed by medication possession ratio), CD4, and weight gain outcomes among food-insecure patients enrolled at the food clinics with those enrolled at the control clinics. Results:Between May 1, 2004, and March 31, 2005, 636 food- insecure adults were enrolled. Food supplementation was associated with better adherence to therapy. Two hundred fifty-eight of 366 (70%) patients in the food group achieved a medication possession ratio of 95% or greater versus 79 of 166 (48%) among controls (relative risk = 1.5; 95% confidence interval: 1.2 to 1.8). This finding was unchanged after adjustment for sex, age, baseline CD4 count, baseline World Health Organization stage, and baseline hemoglobin. We did not observe a significant effect of food supplementation on weight gain or CD4 cell response. Conclusions:This analysis suggests that providing food to food-insecure patients initiating ART is feasible and may improve adherence to medication. A large randomized study of the clinical benefits of food supplementation to ART patients is urgently needed to inform international policy.

Baseline renal insufficiency and risk of death among HIV-infected adults on antiretroviral therapy in Lusaka, Zambia

Objective:To examine the association between baseline renal insufficiency and mortality among adults initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) in an urban African setting. Design:Open cohort evaluation. Methods:We examined mortality according to baseline renal function among adults initiating ART in Lusaka, Zambia. Renal function was assessed by the Cockcroft–Gault method, the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease equation, and serum creatinine. Results:From April 2004 to September 2007, 25 779 individuals started ART with an available creatinine measurement at baseline. When creatinine clearance was calculated by the Cockcroft–Gault method, 8456 (33.5%) had renal insufficiency: 73.5% were mild (60–89 ml/min), 23.4% moderate (30–59 ml/min), and 3.1% severe (<30 ml/min). Risk for mortality at or before 90 days was elevated for those with mildly [adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) = 1.7; 95% confidence interval (95% CI) = 1.5–1.9], moderately (AHR = 2.3; 95% CI = 2.0–2.7), and severely (AHR = 4.3; 95% CI = 3.1–5.5) reduced creatinine clearance. Mild (AHR = 1.4; 95% CI = 1.2–1.6), moderate (AHR = 1.9; 95% CI = 1.5–2.3), and severe (AHR = 3.6; 95% CI = 2.4–5.5) insufficiency were also associated with increased mortality after 90 days, when compared with those with normal renal function. Trends were similar when renal function was estimated with Modification of Diet in Renal Disease or serum creatinine. Conclusion:Renal insufficiency at time of ART initiation was prevalent and associated with increased mortality risk among adults in this population. These results have particular relevance for settings like Zambia, where tenofovir – a drug with known nephrotoxicity – has been adopted as part of first-line therapy. This emphasizes the need for resource-appropriate screening algorithms for renal disease, both as part of ART eligibility and pretreatment assessment.

Adherence to first-line antiretroviral therapy affects non-virologic outcomes among patients on treatment for more than 12 months in Lusaka, Zambia

Background High-level adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) is associated with favourable patient outcomes. In resource-constrained settings, however, there are few validated measures. We examined the correlation between clinical outcomes and the medication possession ratio (MPR), a pharmacy-based measure of adherence. Methods We analysed data from a large programmatic cohort across 18 primary care centres providing ART in Lusaka, Zambia. Patients were stratified into three categories based on MPR-calculated adherence over the first 12 months: optimal (≥95%), suboptimal (80–94%) and poor (<80%). Results Overall, 27 115 treatment-naïve adults initiated and continued ART for ≥12 months: 17 060 (62.9%) demonstrated optimal adherence, 7682 (28.3%) had suboptimal adherence and 2373 (8.8%) had poor adherence. When compared with those with optimal adherence, post-12-month mortality risk was similar among patients with sub-optimal adherence [adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) = 1.0; 95% CI: 0.9–1.2] but higher in patients with poor adherence (AHR = 1.7; 95% CI: 1.4–2.2). Those <80% MPR also appeared to have an attenuated CD4 response at 18 months (185 cells/µl vs 217 cells/µl; P < 0.001), 24 months (213 cells/µl vs 246 cells/µl; P < 0.001), 30 months (226 cells/µl vs 261 cells/µl; P < 0.001) and 36 months (245 cells/µl vs 275 cells/µl; P < 0.01) when compared with those above this threshold. Conclusions MPR was predictive of clinical outcomes and immunologic response in this large public sector antiretroviral treatment program. This marker may have a role in guiding programmatic monitoring and clinical care in resource-constrained settings.

Community-based follow-up for late patients enrolled in a district-wide programme for antiretroviral therapy in Lusaka Zambia.

Abstract Timely adherence to clinical and pharmacy appointments is well correlated with favourable patient outcomes among HIV-infected individuals on antiretroviral therapy. To date, however, there is little work exploring reasons behind missed visits or evaluating programmatic strategies to recall patients. For this study we implemented community-based follow-up of late patients as part of a large-scale programme for HIV care and treatment in Lusaka, Zambia. Through a network of local home-based care organizations, we attempted home visits to recall patients using locator information provided at time of enrolment. Between May and September 2005, home-based caregivers were dispatched to trace 1,343 patients with missed appointments. Of these, 554 (41%) were untraceable because the provided address was invalid, the patient had moved or no one was at the home. Of the remaining 789, 359 (46%) were reported to have died. Only 430 (54% of those traced, 32% overall) were contacted directly and encouraged to return for care. The likelihood of patient return was higher among traced patients in crude analysis (relative risk [RR] = 2.5; 95%CI = 1.9–3.2) and in multivariable analysis controlling for baseline body mass index, sex and CD4 + count ≤ 50/µL (adjusted RR = 2.3; 95%CI = 1.7–3.2). However, the process was inefficient: one late patient returned for every 18 home visits that were made. Reasons for missed visits were provided in 271 of 430 (63%) of the patients who were successfully traced. Common reasons included feeling too sick to come to the clinic, travelling away from home and being too busy. Despite the availability of free ART in Lusaka, patients face significant barriers to attending scheduled clinical visits. Cost-effective and feasible strategies are urgently needed to improve timely patient follow-up.

Simple Adherence Assessments to Predict Virologic Failure among HIV-Infected Adults with Discordant Immunologic and Clinical Responses to Antiretroviral Therapy

We evaluated the association between two antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence measurements--the medication possession ratio (MPR) and patient self-report--and detectable HIV viremia in the setting of rapid service scale-up in Lusaka, Zambia. Drug adherence and outcomes were assessed in a subset of patients suspected of treatment failure based on discordant clinical and immunologic responses to ART. A total of 913 patients were included in this analysis, with a median time of 744 days (Q1, Q3: 511, 919 days) from ART initiation to viral load (VL) measurement. On aggregate over the period of follow-up, 531 (58%) had optimal adherence (MPR > or =95%), 306 (34%) had suboptimal adherence (MPR 80-94%), and 76 (8%) had poor adherence (MPR <80%). Of the 913 patients, 238 (26%) had VL > or =400 copies/ml when tested. When compared to individuals with optimal adherence, there was increasing risk for virologic failure in those with suboptimal adherence [adjusted relative risk (ARR): 1.3; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.0, 1.6] and those with poor adherence (ARR: 1.7; 95% CI: 1.3, 2.4) based on MPR. During the antiretroviral treatment course, 676 patients (74%) reported no missed doses. The proportion of patients with virologic failure did not differ significantly among those reporting any missed dose from those reporting perfect adherence (26% vs. 26%, p = 0.97). Among patients with suspected treatment failure, a lower MPR was associated with higher rates of detectable viremia. However, the suboptimal sensitivity and specificity of MPR limit its utility as a sole predictor of virologic failure.

Early clinical and programmatic outcomes with tenofovir-based antiretroviral therapy in Zambia.

Background:In July 2007, amid some controversy over cost, Zambia was the first African country to introduce tenofovir (TDF) as a component of first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) on a wide scale. Methods:We compared drug substitutions, mortality, and “programmatic failure” among adults starting TDF-, zidovudine (ZDV)-, and stavudine (d4T)-containing ART. Programmatic failure was defined as death, withdrawal, or loss to follow-up. Results:Between July 2007 and January 2009, 10,485 adults initiated ART (66% on TDF, 23% on ZDV, 11% on d4T), with a median follow-up time of 239 (interquartile range 98, 385) days. Those starting TDF were more likely to be male and more likely to have indicators of severe disease at baseline. In adjusted Cox proportional hazards models, ZDV- (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR] = 2.74, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.30-3.28) and d4T-based regimens (AHR = 1.92, 95% CI = 1.55-2.38) were associated with higher risk for drug substitution when compared with TDF-based regimens. Similar hazards were noted for overall mortality (ZDV: AHR = 0 .81, 95% CI = 0.62-1.06; d4T: AHR = 1.03, 95% CI = 0.74-1.43) and programmatic failure (ZDV: AHR = 0.99, 95% CI = 0.88-1.11; d4T: AHR = 1.11, 95% CI = 0.96-1.28) when compared with TDF. Conclusions:TDF is associated with similar clinical and programmatic outcomes as ZDV and d4T but appears to be better tolerated. Although further evaluation is needed, these results are encouraging and support Zambias policy decision.

An Empirical Approach to Defining Loss to Follow-up Among Patients Enrolled in Antiretroviral Treatment Programs

In many programs providing antiretroviral therapy (ART), clinicians report substantial patient attrition; however, there are no consensus criteria for defining patient loss to follow-up (LTFU). Data on a multisite human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment cohort in Lusaka, Zambia, were used to determine an empirical “days-late” definition of LTFU among patients on ART. Cohort members were classified as either “in care” or LTFU as of December 31, 2007, according to a range of days-late intervals. The authors then looked forward in the database to determine which patients actually returned to care at any point over the following year. The interval that best minimized LTFU misclassification was described as “best-performing.” Overall, 33,704 HIV-infected adults on ART were included. Nearly one-third (n = 10,196) were at least 1 day late for an appointment. The best-performing LTFU definition was 56 days after a missed visit, which had a sensitivity of 84.1% (95% confidence interval (CI): 83.2, 85.0), specificity of 97.5% (95% CI: 97.3, 97.7), and misclassification of 5.1% (95% CI: 4.8, 5.3). The 60-day threshold performed similarly well, with only a marginal difference (<0.1%) in misclassification. This analysis suggests that ≥60 days since the last appointment is a reasonable definition of LTFU. Standardization to empirically derived definitions of LTFU will permit more reliable comparisons within and across programs.

Estimating Loss to Follow-Up in HIV-Infected Patients on Antiretroviral Therapy: The Effect of the Competing Risk of Death in Zambia and Switzerland

Background Loss to follow-up (LTFU) is common in antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes. Mortality is a competing risk (CR) for LTFU; however, it is often overlooked in cohort analyses. We examined how the CR of death affected LTFU estimates in Zambia and Switzerland. Methods and Findings HIV-infected patients aged ≥18 years who started ART 2004–2008 in observational cohorts in Zambia and Switzerland were included. We compared standard Kaplan-Meier curves with CR cumulative incidence. We calculated hazard ratios for LTFU across CD4 cell count strata using cause-specific Cox models, or Fine and Gray subdistribution models, adjusting for age, gender, body mass index and clinical stage. 89,339 patients from Zambia and 1,860 patients from Switzerland were included. 12,237 patients (13.7%) in Zambia and 129 patients (6.9%) in Switzerland were LTFU and 8,498 (9.5%) and 29 patients (1.6%), respectively, died. In Zambia, the probability of LTFU was overestimated in Kaplan-Meier curves: estimates at 3.5 years were 29.3% for patients starting ART with CD4 cells <100 cells/µl and 15.4% among patients starting with ≥350 cells/µL. The estimates from CR cumulative incidence were 22.9% and 13.6%, respectively. Little difference was found between naïve and CR analyses in Switzerland since only few patients died. The results from Cox and Fine and Gray models were similar: in Zambia the risk of loss to follow-up and death increased with decreasing CD4 counts at the start of ART, whereas in Switzerland there was a trend in the opposite direction, with patients with higher CD4 cell counts more likely to be lost to follow-up. Conclusions In ART programmes in low-income settings the competing risk of death can substantially bias standard analyses of LTFU. The CD4 cell count and other prognostic factors may be differentially associated with LTFU in low-income and high-income settings.

Taking ART to scale: determinants of the cost and cost-effectiveness of antiretroviral therapy in 45 clinical sites in Zambia.

Background We estimated the unit costs and cost-effectiveness of a government ART program in 45 sites in Zambia supported by the Centre for Infectious Disease Research Zambia (CIDRZ). Methods We estimated per person-year costs at the facility level, and support costs incurred above the facility level and used multiple regression to estimate variation in these costs. To estimate ART effectiveness, we compared mortality in this Zambian population to that of a cohort of rural Ugandan HIV patients receiving co-trimoxazole (CTX) prophylaxis. We used micro-costing techniques to estimate incremental unit costs, and calculated cost-effectiveness ratios with a computer model which projected results to 10 years. Results The program cost

Impact of Baseline Renal Function on Tenofovir-containing Antiretroviral Therapy Outcomes in Zambia

69.7 million for 125,436 person-years of ART, or