Loeske E. B. Kruuk

Statistical confidence for likelihood-based paternity inference in natural populations

Paternity inference using highly polymorphic codominant markers is becoming common in the study of natural populations. However, multiple males are often found to be genetically compatible with each offspring tested, even when the probability of excluding an unrelated male is high. While various methods exist for evaluating the likelihood of paternity of each nonexcluded male, interpreting these likelihoods has hitherto been difficult, and no method takes account of the incomplete sampling and error‐prone genetic data typical of large‐scale studies of natural systems. We derive likelihood ratios for paternity inference with codominant markers taking account of typing error, and define a statistic Δ for resolving paternity. Using allele frequencies from the study population in question, a simulation program generates criteria for Δ that permit assignment of paternity to the most likely male with a known level of statistical confidence. The simulation takes account of the number of candidate males, the proportion of males that are sampled and gaps and errors in genetic data. We explore the potentially confounding effect of relatives and show that the method is robust to their presence under commonly encountered conditions. The method is demonstrated using genetic data from the intensively studied red deer (Cervus elaphus) population on the island of Rum, Scotland. The Windows‐based computer program, CERVUS , described in this study is available from the authors. CERVUS can be used to calculate allele frequencies, run simulations and perform parentage analysis using data from all types of codominant markers.

Adaptive Phenotypic Plasticity in Response to Climate Change in a Wild Bird Population

Rapid climate change has been implicated as a cause of evolution in poorly adapted populations. However, phenotypic plasticity provides the potential for organisms to respond rapidly and effectively to environmental change. Using a 47-year population study of the great tit (Parus major) in the United Kingdom, we show that individual adjustment of behavior in response to the environment has enabled the population to track a rapidly changing environment very closely. Individuals were markedly invariant in their response to environmental variation, suggesting that the current response may be fixed in this population. Phenotypic plasticity can thus play a central role in tracking environmental change; understanding the limits of plasticity is an important goal for future research.

An ecologist's guide to the animal model.

1. Efforts to understand the links between evolutionary and ecological dynamics hinge on our ability to measure and understand how genes influence phenotypes, fitness and population dynamics. Quantitative genetics provides a range of theoretical and empirical tools with which to achieve this when the relatedness between individuals within a population is known. 2. A number of recent studies have used a type of mixed-effects model, known as the animal model, to estimate the genetic component of phenotypic variation using data collected in the field. Here, we provide a practical guide for ecologists interested in exploring the potential to apply this quantitative genetic method in their research. 3. We begin by outlining, in simple terms, key concepts in quantitative genetics and how an animal model estimates relevant quantitative genetic parameters, such as heritabilities or genetic correlations. 4. We then provide three detailed example tutorials, for implementation in a variety of software packages, for some basic applications of the animal model. We discuss several important statistical issues relating to best practice when fitting different kinds of mixed models. 5. We conclude by briefly summarizing more complex applications of the animal model, and by highlighting key pitfalls and dangers for the researcher wanting to begin using quantitative genetic tools to address ecological and evolutionary questions.

ANTLER SIZE IN RED DEER: HERITABILITY AND SELECTION BUT NO EVOLUTION

Abstract We present estimates of the selection on and the heritability of a male secondary sexual weapon in a wild population: antler size in red deer. Male red deer with large antlers had increased lifetime breeding success, both before and after correcting for body size, generating a standardized selection gradient of 0.44 (±0.18 SE). Despite substantial age- and environment-related variation, antler size was also heritable (heritability of antler mass = 0.33 ± 0.12). However the observed selection did not generate an evolutionary response in antler size over the study period of nearly 30 years, and there was no evidence of a positive genetic correlation between antler size and fitness nor of a positive association between breeding values for antler size and fitness. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that a heritable trait under directional selection will not evolve if associations between the measured trait and fitness are determined by environmental covariances: In red deer males, for example, both antler size and success in the fights for mates may be heavily dependent on an individuals nutritional state.

Population density affects sex ratio variation in red deer.

Many mammal populations show significant deviations from an equal sex ratio at birth, but these effects are notoriously inconsistent. This may be because more than one mechanism affects the sex ratio and the action of these mechanisms depends on environmental conditions. Here we show that the adaptive relationship between maternal dominance and offspring sex ratio previously demonstrated in red deer (Cervus elaphus),, where dominant females produced more males, disappeared at high population density. The proportion of males born each year declined with increasing population density and with winter rainfall, both of which are environmental variables associated with nutritional stress during pregnancy. These changes in the sex ratio corresponded to reductions in fecundity, suggesting that they were caused by differential fetal loss. In contrast, the earlier association with maternal dominance is presumed to have been generated pre-implantation. The effects of one source of variation superseded the other within about two generations. Comparison with other ungulate studies indicates that positive associations between maternal quality and the proportion of male offspring born have only been documented in populations below carrying capacity.

Sexually antagonistic genetic variation for fitness in red deer.

Evolutionary theory predicts the depletion of genetic variation in natural populations as a result of the effects of selection, but genetic variation is nevertheless abundant for many traits that are under directional or stabilizing selection. Evolutionary geneticists commonly try to explain this paradox with mechanisms that lead to a balance between mutation and selection. However, theoretical predictions of equilibrium genetic variance under mutation–selection balance are usually lower than the observed values, and the reason for this is unknown. The potential role of sexually antagonistic selection in maintaining genetic variation has received little attention in this debate, surprisingly given its potential ubiquity in dioecious organisms. At fitness-related loci, a given genotype may be selected in opposite directions in the two sexes. Such sexually antagonistic selection will reduce the otherwise-expected positive genetic correlation between male and female fitness. Both theory and experimental data suggest that males and females of the same species may have divergent genetic optima, but supporting data from wild populations are still scarce. Here we present evidence for sexually antagonistic fitness variation in a natural population, using data from a long-term study of red deer (Cervus elaphus). We show that male red deer with relatively high fitness fathered, on average, daughters with relatively low fitness. This was due to a negative genetic correlation between estimates of fitness in males and females. In particular, we show that selection favours males that carry low breeding values for female fitness. Our results demonstrate that sexually antagonistic selection can lead to a trade-off between the optimal genotypes for males and females; this mechanism will have profound effects on the operation of selection and the maintenance of genetic variation in natural populations.

How to separate genetic and environmental causes of similarity between relatives

Related individuals often have similar phenotypes, but this similarity may be due to the effects of shared environments as much as to the effects of shared genes. We consider here alternative approaches to separating the relative contributions of these two sources to phenotypic covariances, comparing experimental approaches such as cross‐fostering, traditional statistical techniques and more complex statistical models, specifically the ‘animal model’. Using both simulation studies and empirical data from wild populations, we demonstrate the ability of the animal model to reduce bias due to shared environment effects such as maternal or brood effects, especially where pedigrees contain multiple generations and immigration rates are low. However, where common environment effects are strong, a combination of both cross‐fostering and an animal model provides the best way to avoid bias. We illustrate ways of partitioning phenotypic variance into components of additive genetic, maternal genetic, maternal environment, common environment, permanent environment and temporal effects, but also show how substantial confounding between these different effects may occur. Whilst the flexibility of the mixed model approach is extremely useful for incorporating the spatial, temporal and social heterogeneity typical of natural populations, the advantages will inevitably be restricted by the quality of pedigree information and care needs to be taken in specifying models that are appropriate to the data.

Evolution driven by differential dispersal within a wild bird population

Evolutionary theory predicts that local population divergence will depend on the balance between the diversifying effect of selection and the homogenizing effect of gene flow. However, spatial variation in the expression of genetic variation will also generate differential evolutionary responses. Furthermore, if dispersal is non-random it may actually reinforce, rather than counteract, evolutionary differentiation. Here we document the evolution of differences in body mass within a population of great tits, Parus major, inhabiting a single continuous woodland, over a 36-year period. We show that genetic variance for nestling body mass is spatially variable, that this generates different potential responses to selection, and that this diversifying effect is reinforced by non-random dispersal. Matching the patterns of variation, selection and evolution with population ecological data, we argue that the small-scale differentiation is driven by density-related differences in habitat quality affecting settlement decisions. Our data show that when gene flow is not homogeneous, evolutionary differentiation can be rapid and can occur over surprisingly small spatial scales. Our findings have important implications for questions of the scale of adaptation and speciation, and challenge the usual treatment of dispersal as a force opposing evolutionary differentiation.

Costs of resistance: genetic correlations and potential trade‐offs in an insect immune System

Theory predicts that natural selection will erode additive genetic variation in fitness‐related traits. However, numerous studies have found considerable heritable variation in traits related to immune function, which should be closely linked to fitness. This could be due to trade‐offs maintaining variation in these traits. We used the Egyptian cotton leafworm, Spodoptera littoralis, as a model system to examine the quantitative genetics of insect immune function. We estimated the heritabilities of several different measures of innate immunity and the genetic correlations between these immune traits and a number of life history traits. Our results provide the first evidence for a potential genetic trade‐off within the insect immune system, with antibacterial activity (lysozyme‐like) exhibiting a significant negative genetic correlation with haemocyte density, which itself is positively genetically correlated with both haemolymph phenoloxidase activity and cuticular melanization. We speculate on a potential trade‐off between defence against parasites and predators, mediated by larval colour, and its role in maintaining genetic variation in traits under natural selection.

NATURAL SELECTION AND INHERITANCE OF BREEDING TIME AND CLUTCH SIZE IN THE COLLARED FLYCATCHER

Abstract Many characteristics of organisms in free‐living populations appear to be under directional selection, possess additive genetic variance, and yet show no evolutionary response to selection. Avian breeding time and clutch size are often‐cited examples of such characters. We report analyses of inheritance of, and selection on, these traits in a long‐term study of a wild population of the collared flycatcher Ficedula albicollis. We used mixed model analysis with REML estimation (“animal models”) to make full use of the information in complex multigenerational pedigrees. Heritability of laying date, but not clutch size, was lower than that estimated previously using parent‐offspring regressions, although for both traits there was evidence of substantial additive genetic variance (h2= 0.19 and 0.29, respectively). Laying date and clutch size were negatively genetically correlated (rA=–0.41 ± 0.09), implying that selection on one of the traits would cause a correlated response in the other, but there was little evidence to suggest that evolution of either trait would be constrained by correlations with other phenotypic characters. Analysis of selection on these traits in females revealed consistent strong directional fecundity selection for earlier breeding at the level of the phenotype (β=–0.28 ± 0.03), but little evidence for stabilising selection on breeding time. We found no evidence that clutch size was independently under selection. Analysis of fecundity selection on breeding values for laying date, estimated from an animal model, indicated that selection acts directly on additive genetic variance underlying breeding time (β=–0.20 ± 0.04), but not on clutch size (β= 0.03 ± 0.05). In contrast, selection on laying date via adult female survival fluctuated in sign between years, and was opposite in sign for selection on phenotypes (negative) and breeding values (positive). Our data thus suggest that any evolutionary response to selection on laying date is partially constrained by underlying life‐history trade‐offs, and illustrate the difficulties in using purely phenotypic measures and incomplete fitness estimates to assess evolution of life‐history trade‐offs. We discuss some of the difficulties associated with understanding the evolution of laying date and clutch size in natural populations.