Loreto Núñez

Estimación de riesgo de enfermedad coronaria mediante la función de Framingham adaptada para la población chilena

The Framingham function was adapted for a populationaged 35 to 74 years, based on an estimate of Chilean incidence of coronary heart disease and theprevalence of coronary heart disease risk factors such as age, sex, total cholesterol, high-densitylipoprotein cholesterol, blood pressure, diabetes and smoking.

Factores asociados a la consulta odontológica en niños/as y jóvenes de Talca (Chile) e inmigrantes chilenos de Montreal (Canadá)

OBJECTIVE To identify the factors that influence the use of dental services in 4-7-year-olds and in 10-13-year-olds resident in the cities of Talca (Chile) and Montreal (Canada). METHODS A nonprobabilistic cross-sectional study was carried out in 147 boys and girls in Talca and in 94 boys and girls in Montreal between 2009 and 2011. Sociodemographic variables were recorded in parents and children, including age and sex. Data were also gathered on parental education, family composition, and proximity to health centers within neighborhoods. The data were analyzed with Fishers exact test and the robust Cox regression model (with constant time) with a significance level of 0,05. RESULTS In Talca, parental education was significantly associated with dental care visits at least twice a year. The children of parents with university education were 2.20 times more likely to consult a dentist (95% CI: 1.30-3.73). Children whose parents perceived their childrens health positively were 53% (OR = 0,47; 95% CI: 0,28-0,77) less likely to consult a dentist. In Montreal, the children of parents with university education were 2.10 times more likely to consult a dentist (95%CI: 1.17-3.76), while older children (10-13 years) were 2.11 (95% CI: 1.15-3.88) times more likely to consult a dentist. CONCLUSIONS In both cities, parental education level was associated with the use of dental services.

Lung cancer mortality trends in Chile and six-year projections using Bayesian dynamic linear models.

The objectives were to analyze lung cancer mortality trends in Chile from 1990 to 2009, and to project the rates six years forward. Lung cancer mortality data were obtained from the Chilean Ministry of Health. To obtain mortality rates, population projections were used, based on the 2002 National Census. Rates were adjusted using the world standard population as reference. Bayesian dynamic linear models were fitted to estimate trends from 1990 to 2009 and to obtain projections for 2010-2015. During the period under study, there was a 19.9% reduction in the lung cancer mortality rate in men. In women, there was increase of 28.4%. The second-order model showed a better fit for men, and the first-order model a better fit for women. Between 2010 and 2015 the downward trend continued in men, while a trend to stabilization was projected for lung cancer mortality in women in Chile. This analytical approach could be useful implement surveillance systems for chronic non-communicable disease and to evaluate preventive strategies.El objetivo fue analizar la tendencia de la tasa de mortalidad por cancer de pulmon en Chile, durante el periodo 1990-2009 y proyectar estas tasas a seis anos. La informacion de mortalidad fue obtenida del Ministerio de Salud de Chile. Para calcular las tasas se utilizaron las proyecciones de poblacion segun el Censo de 2002. Las tasas se estandarizaron usando la poblacion mundial como referencia. Se ajustaron modelos lineales dinamicos bayesianos para estimar la tendencia entre 1990-2009 y proyectar el periodo 2010-2015. Durante el periodo se observa una reduccion del 19,9% de la tasa de mortalidad en hombres, mientras que en mujeres, la tendencia es creciente con aumento de 28,4%. El modelo de segundo orden entrego un mejor ajuste en hombres y el de primer orden en mujeres. Entre 2010 y 2015, se mantiene la tendencia decreciente en hombres, en cambio se proyecta una estabilizacion en la tendencia de mortalidad por cancer pulmonar en mujeres en Chile. Este tipo de analisis es util para implementar sistemas de vigilancia epidemiologica y evaluar estrategias.

Mortalidad por cáncer pulmonar en Chile: tendencia y proyección a seis años con modelos lineales dinámicos bayesianos

The objectives were to analyze lung cancer mortality trends in Chile from 1990 to 2009, and to project the rates six years forward. Lung cancer mortality data were obtained from the Chilean Ministry of Health. To obtain mortality rates, population projections were used, based on the 2002 National Census. Rates were adjusted using the world standard population as reference. Bayesian dynamic linear models were fitted to estimate trends from 1990 to 2009 and to obtain projections for 2010-2015. During the period under study, there was a 19.9% reduction in the lung cancer mortality rate in men. In women, there was increase of 28.4%. The second-order model showed a better fit for men, and the first-order model a better fit for women. Between 2010 and 2015 the downward trend continued in men, while a trend to stabilization was projected for lung cancer mortality in women in Chile. This analytical approach could be useful implement surveillance systems for chronic non-communicable disease and to evaluate preventive strategies.El objetivo fue analizar la tendencia de la tasa de mortalidad por cancer de pulmon en Chile, durante el periodo 1990-2009 y proyectar estas tasas a seis anos. La informacion de mortalidad fue obtenida del Ministerio de Salud de Chile. Para calcular las tasas se utilizaron las proyecciones de poblacion segun el Censo de 2002. Las tasas se estandarizaron usando la poblacion mundial como referencia. Se ajustaron modelos lineales dinamicos bayesianos para estimar la tendencia entre 1990-2009 y proyectar el periodo 2010-2015. Durante el periodo se observa una reduccion del 19,9% de la tasa de mortalidad en hombres, mientras que en mujeres, la tendencia es creciente con aumento de 28,4%. El modelo de segundo orden entrego un mejor ajuste en hombres y el de primer orden en mujeres. Entre 2010 y 2015, se mantiene la tendencia decreciente en hombres, en cambio se proyecta una estabilizacion en la tendencia de mortalidad por cancer pulmonar en mujeres en Chile. Este tipo de analisis es util para implementar sistemas de vigilancia epidemiologica y evaluar estrategias.

Epidemiologia de las Muertes Prematuras en Chile en la década 2001-2010

Background: Years of potential life lost (YPLL) is a parameter that allows to analyze premature deaths. Aim: To study the causes, differences by gender, geographic variations and the trend of premature deaths in the last decade in Chile.. Material and methods: Using death databases published by the Ministry of Health, YPLL were calculated for the decade 2001-2010, using the method proposed by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Results: The standardized annual average YPLL rate in Chile in the study period was 4.703 per 100000 inhabitants. Trauma, cancer and cardiovascular diseases accounted for 68% of YPLL. The male / female YPLL ratio was 2.07; for trauma and mental disorders, the male/female ratio for YPLL was over 5; for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases the male/female ratio was over two. Regions with a higher proportion of rural areas had higher YPLL rates. Conclusions: The main causes of YPLL are potentially preventable. Further studies should be carried out to identify risk factors for premature death.

Descripción epidemiológica de la mortalidad por cáncer de mama en mujeres en Chile

BACKGROUND Among women, breast cancer is the leading cause of death due to cancer worldwide. AIM To describe the epidemiology of breast cancer mortality in Chilean women by age, time trend and explore its ecological association with socio-demographic variables. MATERIAL AND METHODS Descriptive study of age specific death rates (2009-2013), and time trend analysis of crude mortality rates (1995-2013) using RiskDiff analysis. Additionally, time trend analysis of age specific death rates was done using Jointpoint regression. The relationship between county mortality risk and socio-demographic variables in the period 2001-2008 was done through an ecological analysis. Socio-demographic variables were: education, income, occupation, housing and living in rural areas. RESULTS Breast cancer mortality in Chilean women increases with age, with a sharp increase from 80 years old on. In the 1995-2013 period the increase in the crude death rate was 21.8%, this increment was due to changes in demographic structure (43.4%) and decrease in risk (21.7%). The county relative risk of breast cancer mortality is positively associated with education level and negatively associated with living in rural areas. CONCLUSIONS The risk of dying from breast cancer in women has decreased in the period 1995-2013. Nonetheless, the crude death rate has increased in the same period. At an ecological level (counties), breast cancer mortality in Chile is associated with a higher socioeconomic status, measured by educational level and living in rural areas.

Mortalidade por câncer de pulmão no Chile: tendência e projeção de seis anos com modelos lineares dinâmicos bayesianos

The objectives were to analyze lung cancer mortality trends in Chile from 1990 to 2009, and to project the rates six years forward. Lung cancer mortality data were obtained from the Chilean Ministry of Health. To obtain mortality rates, population projections were used, based on the 2002 National Census. Rates were adjusted using the world standard population as reference. Bayesian dynamic linear models were fitted to estimate trends from 1990 to 2009 and to obtain projections for 2010-2015. During the period under study, there was a 19.9% reduction in the lung cancer mortality rate in men. In women, there was increase of 28.4%. The second-order model showed a better fit for men, and the first-order model a better fit for women. Between 2010 and 2015 the downward trend continued in men, while a trend to stabilization was projected for lung cancer mortality in women in Chile. This analytical approach could be useful implement surveillance systems for chronic non-communicable disease and to evaluate preventive strategies.El objetivo fue analizar la tendencia de la tasa de mortalidad por cancer de pulmon en Chile, durante el periodo 1990-2009 y proyectar estas tasas a seis anos. La informacion de mortalidad fue obtenida del Ministerio de Salud de Chile. Para calcular las tasas se utilizaron las proyecciones de poblacion segun el Censo de 2002. Las tasas se estandarizaron usando la poblacion mundial como referencia. Se ajustaron modelos lineales dinamicos bayesianos para estimar la tendencia entre 1990-2009 y proyectar el periodo 2010-2015. Durante el periodo se observa una reduccion del 19,9% de la tasa de mortalidad en hombres, mientras que en mujeres, la tendencia es creciente con aumento de 28,4%. El modelo de segundo orden entrego un mejor ajuste en hombres y el de primer orden en mujeres. Entre 2010 y 2015, se mantiene la tendencia decreciente en hombres, en cambio se proyecta una estabilizacion en la tendencia de mortalidad por cancer pulmonar en mujeres en Chile. Este tipo de analisis es util para implementar sistemas de vigilancia epidemiologica y evaluar estrategias.