Loris Foresti

Kernel-Based Mapping of Orographic Rainfall Enhancement in the Swiss Alps as Detected by Weather Radar

In this paper, we develop a data-driven methodology to characterize the likelihood of orographic precipitation enhancement using sequences of weather radar images and a digital elevation model (DEM). Geographical locations with topographic characteristics favorable to enforce repeatable and persistent orographic precipitation such as stationary cells, upslope rainfall enhancement, and repeated convective initiation are detected by analyzing the spatial distribution of a set of precipitation cells extracted from radar imagery. Topographic features such as terrain convexity and gradients computed from the DEM at multiple spatial scales as well as velocity fields estimated from sequences of weather radar images are used as explanatory factors to describe the occurrence of localized precipitation enhancement. The latter is represented as a binary process by defining a threshold on the number of cell occurrences at particular locations. Both two-class and one-class support vector machine classifiers are tested to separate the presumed orographic cells from the nonorographic ones in the space of contributing topographic and flow features. Site-based validation is carried out to estimate realistic generalization skills of the obtained spatial prediction models. Due to the high class separability, the decision function of the classifiers can be interpreted as a likelihood or susceptibility of orographic precipitation enhancement. The developed approach can serve as a basis for refining radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates and short-term forecasts or for generating stochastic precipitation ensembles conditioned on the local topography.

Extreme precipitation modelling using geostatistics and machine learning algorithms

The paper presents an approach for mapping of precipitation data. The main goal is to perform spatial predictions and simulations of precipitation fields using geostatistical methods (ordinary kriging, kriging with external drift) as well as machine learning algorithms (neural networks). More practically, the objective is to reproduce simultaneously both the spatial patterns and the extreme values. This objective is best reached by models integrating geostatistics and machine learning algorithms. To demonstrate how such models work, two case studies have been considered: first, a 2-day accumulation of heavy precipitation and second, a 6-day accumulation of extreme orographic precipitation. The first example is used to compare the performance of two optimization algorithms (conjugate gradients and Levenberg-Marquardt) of a neural network for the reproduction of extreme values. Hybrid models, which combine geostatistical and machine learning algorithms, are also treated in this context. The second dataset is used to analyze the contribution of radar Doppler imagery when used as external drift or as input in the models (kriging with external drift and neural networks). Model assessment is carried out by comparing independent validation errors as well as analyzing data patterns.

Multiple Kernel Learning of Environmental Data. Case Study: Analysis and Mapping of Wind Fields

The paper presents the Multiple Kernel Learning (MKL) approach as a modelling and data exploratory tool and applies it to the problem of wind speed mapping. Support Vector Regression (SVR) is used to predict spatial variations of the mean wind speed from terrain features (slopes, terrain curvature, directional derivatives) generated at different spatial scales. Multiple Kernel Learning is applied to learn kernels for individual features and thematic feature subsets, both in the context of feature selection and optimal parameters determination. An empirical study on real-life data confirms the usefulness of MKL as a tool that enhances the interpretability of data-driven models.