Louisa Flander

Factors in childhood as predictors of asthma in adult life

Abstract Objective: To determine which factors measured in childhood predict asthma in adult life. Design: Prospective study over 25 years of a birth cohort initially studied at the age of 7. Setting: Tasmania, Australia. Subjects—1494 men and women surveyed in 1991-3 when aged 29 to 32 (75% of a random stratified sample from the 1968 Tasmanian asthma survey of children born in 1961 and at school in Tasmania). Main outcome measures: Self reported asthma or wheezy breathing in the previous 12 months (current asthma). Results: Of the subjects with asthma or wheezy breathing by the age of 7, as reported by their parents 25.6% (190/741) reported current asthma as an adult compared with 10.8% (81/753) of subjects without parent reported childhood asthma (P<0.001). Factors measured at the age of 7 that independently predicted current asthma as an adult were being female (odds ratio 1.57; 95% confidence interval 1.19 to 2.08); having a history of eczema (1.45; 1.04 to 2.03); having a low mild forced expiratory flow rate (interquartile odds ratio 1.40; 1.15 to 1.71); having a mother or father with a history of asthma (1.74 (1.23 to 2.47) and 1.68 (1.18 to 2.38) respectively); and having childhood asthma (1.59; 1.10 to 2.29) and, if so, having the first attack after the age of 2 (1.66; 1.17 to 2.36) or having had more than 10 attacks (1.70; 1.17 to 2.48). Conclusion—Children with asthma reported by their parents in 1968 were more likely than not to be free of symptoms as adults. The subjects who had more severe asthma (especially if it developed after the age of 2 and was associated with reduced expiratory flow), were female, or had parents who had asthma were at an increased risk of having asthma as an adult. These findings have implications for the treatment and prognosis of childhood asthma, targeting preventive and educational strategies, and understanding the onset of asthma in adult life.

Reducing overconfidence in the interval judgments of experts.

Elicitation of expert opinion is important for risk analysis when only limited data are available. Expert opinion is often elicited in the form of subjective confidence intervals; however, these are prone to substantial overconfidence. We investigated the influence of elicitation question format, in particular the number of steps in the elicitation procedure. In a 3-point elicitation procedure, an expert is asked for a lower limit, upper limit, and best guess, the two limits creating an interval of some assigned confidence level (e.g., 80%). In our 4-step interval elicitation procedure, experts were also asked for a realistic lower limit, upper limit, and best guess, but no confidence level was assigned; the fourth step was to rate their anticipated confidence in the interval produced. In our three studies, experts made interval predictions of rates of infectious diseases (Study 1, n = 21 and Study 2, n = 24: epidemiologists and public health experts), or marine invertebrate populations (Study 3, n = 34: ecologists and biologists). We combined the results from our studies using meta-analysis, which found average overconfidence of 11.9%, 95% CI [3.5, 20.3] (a hit rate of 68.1% for 80% intervals)-a substantial decrease in overconfidence compared with previous studies. Studies 2 and 3 suggest that the 4-step procedure is more likely to reduce overconfidence than the 3-point procedure (Cohens d = 0.61, [0.04, 1.18]).

Expert status and performance.

Expert judgements are essential when time and resources are stretched or we face novel dilemmas requiring fast solutions. Good advice can save lives and large sums of money. Typically, experts are defined by their qualifications, track record and experience [1], [2]. The social expectation hypothesis argues that more highly regarded and more experienced experts will give better advice. We asked experts to predict how they will perform, and how their peers will perform, on sets of questions. The results indicate that the way experts regard each other is consistent, but unfortunately, ranks are a poor guide to actual performance. Expert advice will be more accurate if technical decisions routinely use broadly-defined expert groups, structured question protocols and feedback.

Parity and decreased use of oral contraceptives as predictors of asthma in young women

Background Asthma is more prevalent among males in childhood, but females report higher rates in adulthood. The reasons are unknown; although it has been hypothesized that hormonal factors may explain this sex‐dependent risk of adult‐onset asthma.

Are we missing the boat? Current uses of long-term biological monitoring data in the evaluation and management of marine protected areas

Protected area management agencies are increasingly using management effectiveness evaluation (MEE) to better understand, learn from and improve conservation efforts around the globe. Outcome assessment is the final stage of MEE, where conservation outcomes are measured to determine whether management objectives are being achieved. When quantitative monitoring data are available, best-practice examples of outcome assessments demonstrate that data should be assessed against quantitative condition categories. Such assessments enable more transparent and repeatable integration of monitoring data into MEE, which can promote evidence-based management and improve public accountability and reporting. We interviewed key informants from marine protected area (MPA) management agencies to investigate how scientific data sources, especially long-term biological monitoring data, are currently informing conservation management. Our study revealed that even when long-term monitoring results are available, management agencies are not using them for quantitative condition assessment in MEE. Instead, many agencies conduct qualitative condition assessments, where monitoring results are interpreted using expert judgment only. Whilst we found substantial evidence for the use of long-term monitoring data in the evidence-based management of MPAs, MEE is rarely the sole mechanism that facilitates the knowledge transfer of scientific evidence to management action. This suggests that the first goal of MEE (to enable environmental accountability and reporting) is being achieved, but the second and arguably more important goal of facilitating evidence-based management is not. Given that many MEE approaches are in their infancy, recommendations are made to assist management agencies realize the full potential of long-term quantitative monitoring data for protected area evaluation and evidence-based management.

Screening practices of unaffected people at familial risk of colorectal cancer.

Our objective was to determine screening practices of unaffected people in the general population at moderately increased and potentially high risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) because of their family history of the disease. A total of 1,627 participants in the Australasian Colorectal Cancer Family Registry study were classified into two CRC risk categories, according to the strength of their family history of the disease. We calculated the proportion of participants that adhered to national CRC screening guidelines by age group and for each familial risk category. We carried out a multinomial logistic regression analysis to evaluate the associations between screening and sociodemographic factors. Of the 1,236 participants at moderately increased risk of CRC, 70 (6%) reported having undergone guideline-defined “appropriate” screening, 251 (20%) reported some, but less than appropriate screening, and 915 (74%) reported never having had any CRC screening test. Of the 392 participants at potentially high risk of CRC, three (1%) reported appropriate screening, 140 (36%) reported some, but less than appropriate screening, and 249 (64%) reported never having had any CRC screening test. On average, those of middle age, higher education, and who had resided in Australia longer were more likely to have had screening for CRC. The uptake of recommended screening by unaffected people at the highest familial risk of developing CRC is extremely low. Guidelines for CRC screening are not being implemented in the population. More research is needed to identify the reasons so as to enable development of strategies to improve participation in screening. Cancer Prev Res; 5(2); 240–7. ©2011 AACR.

Tumor testing to identify lynch syndrome in two Australian colorectal cancer cohorts

Tumor testing of colorectal cancers (CRC) for mismatch repair (MMR) deficiency is an effective approach to identify carriers of germline MMR gene mutation (Lynch syndrome). The aim of this study was to identify MMR gene mutation carriers in two cohorts of population‐based CRC utilizing a combination of tumor and germline testing approaches.

Quantifying the utility of single nucleotide polymorphisms to guide colorectal cancer screening

AIM To determine whether single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) can be used to identify people who should be screened for colorectal cancer. METHODS We simulated one million people with and without colorectal cancer based on published SNP allele frequencies and strengths of colorectal cancer association. We estimated 5-year risks of colorectal cancer by number of risk alleles. RESULTS We identified 45 SNPs with an average 1.14-fold increase colorectal cancer risk per allele (range: 1.05-1.53). The colorectal cancer risk for people in the highest quintile of risk alleles was 1.81-times that for the average person. CONCLUSION We have quantified the extent to which known susceptibility SNPs can stratify the population into clinically useful colorectal cancer risk categories.

Towards quantitative condition assessment of biodiversity outcomes: Insights from Australian marine protected areas

Protected area management effectiveness (PAME) evaluation is increasingly undertaken to evaluate governance, assess conservation outcomes and inform evidence-based management of protected areas (PAs). Within PAME, quantitative approaches to assess biodiversity outcomes are now emerging, where biological monitoring data are directly assessed against quantitative (numerically defined) condition categories (termed quantitative condition assessments). However, more commonly qualitative condition assessments are employed in PAME, which use descriptive condition categories and are evaluated largely with expert judgement that can be subject to a range of biases, such as linguistic uncertainty and overconfidence. Despite the benefits of increased transparency and repeatability of evaluations, quantitative condition assessments are rarely used in PAME. To understand why, we interviewed practitioners from all Australian marine protected area (MPA) networks, which have access to long-term biological monitoring data and are developing or conducting PAME evaluations. Our research revealed that there is a desire within management agencies to implement quantitative condition assessment of biodiversity outcomes in Australian MPAs. However, practitioners report many challenges in transitioning from undertaking qualitative to quantitative condition assessments of biodiversity outcomes, which are hampering progress. Challenges include a lack of agency capacity (staff numbers and money), knowledge gaps, and diminishing public and political support for PAs. We point to opportunities to target strategies that will assist agencies overcome these challenges, including new decision support tools, approaches to better finance conservation efforts, and to promote more management relevant science. While a single solution is unlikely to achieve full evidence-based conservation, we suggest ways for agencies to target strategies and advance PAME evaluations toward best practice.

The characteristics of acute non-fatal medication-related events attended by ambulance services in the Melbourne Metropolitan Area 1998-2002

INTRODUCTION AND AIMS To describe the characteristics of non-fatal medication-related ambulance attendances in Melbourne. DESIGN AND METHODS A retrospective analysis of 16 705 patient care records completed by ambulance paramedics in Melbourne where medications had a causal role in the attendance. RESULTS A single medication only was implicated in 11 765 cases (70% of the total). Of these, 85% involved one of six types of medication: benzodiazepines (52%), paracetamol (15%), selective serotonin re-uptake inhibitors (6.5%), combination paracetamol and opioids (4%), phenothiazines (3.4%) and tricyclic antidepressants (TCA) (3.7%). Cases involving benzodiazepines were significantly (P < 0.001) older (Average = 37 years) than those involving paracetamol (Average = 30 years). Thirty-four per cent of cases involved concurrent alcohol use, and this varied according to drug type (paracetamol 26%, benzodiazepines 40%, selective serotonin re-uptake inhibitors 35%, paracetamol and opioids 35%). An abnormal Glasgow Coma Scale score was found in 19% of cases, again varying according to drug type (paracetamol 10%, TCA 39%, benzodiazepines 21%, paracetamol and opioids 17%, phenothiazines 15%). Ten per cent of cases were not transported to hospital ranging from 3% for TCA to 13% for benzodiazepines. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS The majority of non-fatal medication events attended by ambulance paramedics involve one of six substances. Benzodiazepines were most commonly implicated and, as management may require only simple supportive treatment, significant numbers are not transported to hospital. The unique clinical population is identified in this study and the ongoing medical and psychiatric treatment of these patients not transported to hospital in the study period needs to be considered.