Louise A. Grogan

Alcoholism, Tobacco, and Drug Use in the Countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union

This note reviews recent literature relating to the use of alcohol, tobacco, and intravenous drugs in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. Trends in substance use among subpopulations are discussed in relation to changes in the major population health indicators since 1990. This article summarizes recent work into understanding the role of substance use and misuse in the region in explaining demographic developments in terms of life expectancy and population growth. In 1993, 80% of Russian males drank, and among these, alcohol intake averaged near 600 grams per day. Smoking is much more prevalent among Russian men (61.4%) than among women (10.3%). In 2003, 185.8 per 100 thousand Russian men were drug addicted. High rates of male alcohol abuse, suicide, accidents, violence, and cardiovascular disease appear to be major causes of the large falls in life expectancy and rising gender gaps in life expectancy in the region. Life expectancy at birth in Russia was estimated at 60.5 years for males and 74 years for females in 2005. Russias population is now declining at a rate of 0.37% per annum, and with more than 1% of the population estimated to be HIV positive, it is likely that this population decline will accelerate further in the near future. Many of these population trends are mirrored across the former Soviet Union.

An Economic Examination of the Post-Transition Fertility Decline in Russia

This article uses longitudinal household data to examine the decline in the Total Fertility Rate in Russia from 2.0 in 1989 to 1.3 in 2001. Using individual and community-level panel data spanning the 1994–2001 era, the decline in household income can account for about a 28% decline in yearly birth propensities amongst married couples. The relationship between educational attainment and fertility appears to have changed markedly in the post-Soviet era. More educated individuals now have greater propensities to bear children than their vocationally educated counterparts within marriage. Female labour force participation is not strongly associated with fertility decisions of married women in the post-Soviet era, and local provisions for children also do not have important effects. These results suggest that improving real family incomes will be more important in raising fertility rates than improving child benefits levels or increasing community childcare provisions.

Young Children and Women's Labour Force Participation in Russia, 1992-2004

We document the changing labour force participation patterns of women with young children in Russia during 1992–2004. In this period maternity leave benefits became less generous, and childcare was privatized and became increasingly scarce. Using nationally representative household survey data it is shown that in 1992, there was essentially no association between the probability of a woman being a labour force participant and her having a child under age 3. However, by 2004, having children under age 3 had become associated with significantly reduced participation and employment probabilities, conditional on other observable characteristics of women and their households, and local factors. Several potential explanations for these findings are discussed.

Household Electrification, Fertility and Employment: Evidence from Hydroelectric Dam Construction in Colombia

This paper examines how household electrification in Colombia altered fertility, women’s work behavior, and children’s schooling. Estimation exploits plausibly exogenous variation in the cost of a household electric connection. The time-varying distance between a municipality and the nearest hydroelectric dam is assumed not to directly affect socioeconomic outcomes but to influence electrification rates during 1973–2005. Changes within municipalities in dam distance are used to predict changes in electrification rates in specifications including both department fixed effects with extensive municipal controls and municipal fixed effects. Household electrification is found to have reduced fertility and to have increased young children’s schooling but not to have had measurable self- or waged-employment effects.

Worker Flows in the Russian Economic Transition: Longitudinal Evidence from Four Cities*

This article investigates the movement of workers into new employment and nonemployment from jobs held at the end of the Soviet period and the movement of workers between jobs during the post-Soviet era. Multinomial logit and competing-risks models for transitions to different labor market states are estimated.

Household Electrification and Time Use in Guatemala

This paper examines how obtaining a household electric connection affects the time allocation of rural, indigenous Guatemalans during 2000-2011. Following the end of a thirty-six year civil war, a Rural Electrification Plan substantially expanded electricity access, and subsidized use. This public-private partnership pays companies a fixed fee for connecting households. Causal impacts on time use of individuals are identified using initial geospatial inequalities in public goods provisions within municipalities and this large change in the cost of electrifying households more distant from the electric grid. Women increased time spent working for money by about 2-3 hours per day.

Female Employment and Violence in the Household: Evidence from the Latin American Demographic and Health Surveys

The relationship between female earnings and violence in the household is negative in the US but not in many other contexts. Recent studies from developing countries suggest that, despite greater financial autonomy, rising female employment is associated with more violence. A generally positive conditional correlation between female employment and violence is here documented using available Demographic and Health Surveys from Latin American countries. These surveys do not suggest that violence is associated with women having less say in decisions regarding resource allocation decisions in households. As well, although levels of violence are higher among less educated women, violence is still very prevalent among women with completed secondary school. These stylized facts suggest that bargaining power and earnings potential are only two of several factors important to the explaining the incidence of violence. Historical data from the 1971 Nicaragua census is here combined with survey data to find that a rise of 0.1 in womens employment propensities is associated with an increase in violence propensities of about 0.01-0.04 in both 1998 and in 2011-12. In Nicaragua, this positive association appears to be concentrated among less-educated women. The results are consistent with violence rising with womens employment because of associated changes in the nature of cooperation between spouses in the provision of household public goods.

Peoples of the Enemy? Ukrainians and Russians 1995-2011

This paper tests three hypotheses about the origins of the conflict which begun in 2014 in Ukraine, using the 1995-2011 World Values Surveys. First, a hypothesis that the economic situation of young fighting-age men in Eastern Ukraine worsened relative to that of young men in Russia during 1995-2011 is examined. Second, a hypothesis that the political views of respondents in Eastern Ukraine became more like those of people in neighbouring Russian regions is investigated. Third, a hypothesis that people in Eastern Ukraine became relatively more disillusioned with the quality of their national institutions during this period is tested. None of these three hypotheses is much supported by the data.

Work and Female Health Autonomy: Evidence from the Demographic and Health Surveys

This paper examines the conditional association between women working outside of the household and two outcomes: Contraceptive use amongst those who do not wish to become pregnant, and self-reported autonomy in the taking of health-related decisions. Women who work outside the household are generally more likely to use contraceptives, conditional on household wealth, local fixed effects, and extensive individual and household level controls. In several African countries, women who are working are found to have relatively more say in their own health decisions, ceteris paribus. Across the developing countries included in the Demographic and Health Surveys, labour supply is generally importantly correlated with female health autonomy, even after conditioning on household wealth.

Government Transfers, Work and Social Norms: Evidence from the Russian Old-Age Pension, 1990-2011

Social norms about work evolved substantially in Russia following the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of full employment. However, amongst the subpopulation of older workers, whose views were formed under labour hoarding, ideas about working life remained similar. The resulting environment facilitates a natural experiment. The causal impact of attaining pension age on labour market outcomes is here identified using the World Values Surveys and Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Surveys spanning 1990-2011, and regression discontinuity estimators with individual fixed effects. Older individuals now re- tire earlier with more income and leisure time, but are not necessarily happier.