Louise Mair

Explaining Spatial Variation in the Recording Effort of Citizen Science Data across Multiple Taxa.

The collation of citizen science data in open-access biodiversity databases makes temporally and spatially extensive species’ observation data available to a wide range of users. Such data are an invaluable resource but contain inherent limitations, such as sampling bias in favour of recorder distribution, lack of survey effort assessment, and lack of coverage of the distribution of all organisms. Any technical assessment, monitoring program or scientific research applying citizen science data should therefore include an evaluation of the uncertainty of its results. We use ‘ignorance’ scores, i.e. spatially explicit indices of sampling bias across a study region, to further understand spatial patterns of observation behaviour for 13 reference taxonomic groups. The data is based on voluntary observations made in Sweden between 2000 and 2014. We compared the effect of six geographical variables (elevation, steepness, population density, log population density, road density and footpath density) on the ignorance scores of each group. We found substantial variation among taxonomic groups in the relative importance of different geographic variables for explaining ignorance scores. In general, road access and logged population density were consistently important variables explaining bias in sampling effort, indicating that access at a landscape-scale facilitates voluntary reporting by citizen scientists. Also, small increases in population density can produce a substantial reduction in ignorance score. However the between-taxa variation in the importance of geographic variables for explaining ignorance scores demonstrated that different taxa suffer from different spatial biases. We suggest that conservationists and researchers should use ignorance scores to acknowledge uncertainty in their analyses and conclusions, because they may simultaneously include many correlated variables that are difficult to disentangle.

Evaluating citizen science data for forecasting species responses to national forest management

Abstract The extensive spatial and temporal coverage of many citizen science datasets (CSD) makes them appealing for use in species distribution modeling and forecasting. However, a frequent limitation is the inability to validate results. Here, we aim to assess the reliability of CSD for forecasting species occurrence in response to national forest management projections (representing 160,366 km2) by comparison against forecasts from a model based on systematically collected colonization–extinction data. We fitted species distribution models using citizen science observations of an old‐forest indicator fungus Phellinus ferrugineofuscus. We applied five modeling approaches (generalized linear model, Poisson process model, Bayesian occupancy model, and two MaxEnt models). Models were used to forecast changes in occurrence in response to national forest management for 2020‐2110. Forecasts of species occurrence from models based on CSD were congruent with forecasts made using the colonization–extinction model based on systematically collected data, although different modeling methods indicated different levels of change. All models projected increased occurrence in set‐aside forest from 2020 to 2110: the projected increase varied between 125% and 195% among models based on CSD, in comparison with an increase of 129% according to the colonization–extinction model. All but one model based on CSD projected a decline in production forest, which varied between 11% and 49%, compared to a decline of 41% using the colonization–extinction model. All models thus highlighted the importance of protected old forest for P. ferrugineofuscus persistence. We conclude that models based on CSD can reproduce forecasts from models based on systematically collected colonization–extinction data and so lead to the same forest management conclusions. Our results show that the use of a suite of models allows CSD to be reliably applied to land management and conservation decision making, demonstrating that widely available CSD can be a valuable forecasting resource.

Forest management could counteract distribution retractions forced by climate change

Climate change is expected to drive the distribution retraction of northern species. However, particularly in regions with a history of intensive exploitation, changes in habitat management could facilitate distribution expansions counter to expectations under climate change. Here, we test the potential for future forest management to facilitate the southward expansion of an old-forest species from the boreal region into the boreo-nemoral region, contrary to expectations under climate change. We used an ensemble of species distribution models based on citizen science data to project the response of Phellinus ferrugineofuscus, a red-listed old-growth indicator, wood-decaying fungus, to six forest management and climate change scenarios. We projected change in habitat suitability across the boreal and boreo-nemoral regions of Sweden for the period 2020-2100. Scenarios varied in the proportion of forest set aside from production, the level of timber extraction, and the magnitude of climate change. Habitat suitabilities for the study species were projected to show larger relative increases over time in the boreo-nemoral region compared to the boreal region, under all scenarios. By 2100, mean suitabilities in set-aside forest in the boreo-nemoral region were similar to the suitabilities projected for set-aside forest in the boreal region in 2020, suggesting that occurrence in the boreo-nemoral region could be increased. However, across all scenarios, consistently higher projected suitabilities in set-aside forest in the boreal region indicated that the boreal region remained the species stronghold. Furthermore, negative effects of climate change were evident in the boreal region, and projections suggested that climatic changes may eventually counteract the positive effects of forest management in the boreo-nemoral region. Our results suggest that the current rarity of this old-growth indicator species in the boreo-nemoral region may be due to the history of intensive forestry. Forest management therefore has the potential to compensate for the negative effects of climate change. However, increased occurrence at the southern range edge would depend on the dispersal and colonization ability of the species. An increase in the amount of set-aside forest across both the boreal and boreo-nemoral regions is therefore likely to be required to prevent the decline of old-forest species under climate change.

Biological traits explain bryophyte species distributions and responses to forest fragmentation and climatic variation

Forest ecosystems have been subjected to intensive exploitation, and on top of these land use-driven habitat alterations, there is an ongoing and rapid climate change. Understanding why environmental responses differ across species and how differences are mediated by species’ traits is crucial for predicting the complex effects of global change on forest biodiversity. We used (1) single-species distribution models and (2) multispecies predictive fourth-corner models of varying complexity to identify critical response traits of dead wood inhabiting bryophytes and to quantify species’ relationships with climatic and forest landscape variation. We hypothesized that reproductive and life-history traits would be mainly linked with forest connectivity, whereas morphological traits would mostly relate to (micro-)climatic variation. The inferred trait–environment relationships based on the different fourth-corner models were consistent. Unexpectedly, reproduction modes were more closely linked to climatic and habitat factors than to forest connectivity. Sexual reproduction was positively related to high temperatures and broadleaf trees, but negatively to high amounts of precipitation. The opposite was true for species which predominantly, or additionally, reproduce asexually. Bryophyte life-forms were related to both habitat and climatic conditions. The positive relationship of shoot length with both high temperatures and high amounts of precipitation suggested that competitive exclusion is important in determining trailing edges of dead wood inhabiting bryophytes. Synthesis. Differences in physiological tolerances obviously play a much greater role in shaping the distributional pattern of bryophyte species with different reproductive systems than previously thought. Evidence suggests that current geographic ranges were primarily determined by physiological tolerances and competitive abilities. Species’ relationships with forest connectivity were complex and determined by the combination of reproductive traits with other critical species’ properties. Given the different species’ relationships with climatic gradients, and the varying species’ dispersal and competitive capacities, we expect clear changes in metacommunity composition following climate change and an overall decrease in the diversity of dead wood inhabiting bryophytes in Sweden.