Lubov I. Kizhner

Measurement-calculation complex for monitoring and forecasting meteorological situations at airports

We describe the measurement and calculation complex for monitoring and forecasting the meteorological situation at airports, which comprises MTP-5PE meteorological temperature profiler, WXT520 Vaisala Weather Transmitter, main and remote terminals for managing the complex, network data storage, two high-resolution meteorological models, server, and SKIF Cyberia cluster at Tomsk State University. The paper presents the results of monitoring and forecasting the atmospheric temperature profile and surface wind speed and direction, pressure, humidity, and temperature for the previous winter, when different extreme weather events were observed in Bogashevo airport. It is shown that the measured and calculated vertical temperature profiles in the lower part of the atmospheric boundary layer show high level of qualitative and quantitative agreement of results.

Application of MTP-5PE meteorological temperature profiler in an airport for determining spatial zones of possible aircraft Icing

We present the results of applying the MTP-5PE meteorological temperature profiler for determining the spatial zones of possible aircraft icing in Tomsk airport on March 17, 2013. The spatial zones were determined using the RAP-algorithm, the Godske formula, as well as the AMIS-RF data for retrieving the humidity profile. The RAP algorithm and the Godske formula are shown to predict similar locations of spatial zones of possible aircraft icing. However, the RAP results are closer to the actual icing reports available from aircraft crews.

Forecast of precipitation in the area of Bogashevo airport using the WRF model

Numerical simulation results obtained for meteorological conditions in the area of Bogashevo airport and the city of Tomsk using the Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale system are presented. The main attention is paid to choosing the parameterization of microphysical processes adequate for conditions of Western Siberia with the aim to obtain a reliable forecast of intense rainfalls. The performed comparison of predicted and factual data on precipitation and cloudiness demonstrated good possibilities of the model for forecasting precipitation and dangerous events for aviation. The ETA microphysics parameterization yielded the best results.

Some characteristics of inversions in Tomsk according to MTP-5 temperature profiler

Data on temperature inversions in the vicinity of Tomsk on the basis of MTP-5PE profiler data carried out at the IMCES SB RAS were summarized. It is shown that during persistent long-lived powerful anticyclones there is high recurrence of temperature inversions - they occur every day, or 90% of the time. A few characteristics of inversions observed in the region of the Bogashevo airport are presented.

Forecast of icing zones using possibilities of hydrodynamic simulation for the atmospheric boundary layer

This paper presents the results of the analysis and forecast of meteorological conditions that promote icing of aircrafts in the atmospheric boundary layer. The forecasting results were obtained using the mesoscale meteorological model TSU-NM3. The Godske method, the NCEP method, and the statistical method of the Hydro-meteorological Centre of Russia were used as the criteria of aircraft icing probability during take-off or landing. The numeric forecast results were compared with pilot reports. The forecast accuracy rates, the probability of false detection, and the Peirces skill score confirm the prospects of the proposed approach for the sphere of forecasting aircraft icing zones. On the basis of this technology, a regional method for forecasting aircraft icing can be developed.

Satellite data assimilation in global numerical weather prediction model using Kalman filter

This paper examines the application of the Kalman filter for assimilation of satellite soil moisture measurement data into the SL-AV global numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. This technique allows to consider soil moisture data in areas with available satellite observations. Single-assimilation numerical experiments based on the Kalman filter revealed a reduction of errors in the initial surface layer soil moisture data.

Meteorological optical range predictability with the use of high resolution mesoscale models

The report describes and argues in favor of the data base for numerical experiments with hydrodynamic and photochemical atmospheric models with the purpose of the meteorological visibility forecast. The obtained results demonstrate methodological potential of this approach.

Evaluation of satellite data on soil moisture in the southwest region of the Baikal

The present paper presents characteristics of correlation between soil moisture observations obtained from a satellite and direct observations during the warm period of 2011 and 2012 in the area of the Tunka Basin. The factors influencing the relationship are considered. It is shown that the updated satellite data on moisture of the upper soil layer and those of direct observations at a depth of 15 cm have a satisfactory relationship.

Forecast of extreme weather conditions that promote aircraft icing during take-off or landing

This work presents the results of forecasting meteorological conditions that promote aircrafts icing in the atmospheric boundary layer; the forecasting results were obtained based on mesoscale meteorological model TSU-NM3. Godske formula which is based on the calculation of saturation temperature above ice, NCEP method, and statistical method of Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia were used as criteria of probability of aircraft icing during take-off or landing. Numeric forecast results were compared with physical observations made in the atmospheric boundary layer in October 2012 at the Tomsk airport. A good agreement obtained provided an opportunity to be certain about the above approach viability.

Filtration and assimilation of soil moisture satellite data

This paper presents two data filtration methods. These methods are used for filtration of satellite soil moisture measurement data. A comparison with in-situ soil moisture measurement data shows an improvement in data quality after application of the filters. First results of satellite data assimilation with a global model of numerical weather forecasting are given.