Luciano Javier Avila

Erosion of lizard diversity by climate change and altered thermal niches

Demise of the Lizards Despite pessimistic forecasts from recent studies examining the effects of global climate change on species, and observed extinctions in local geographic areas, there is little evidence so far of global-scale extinctions. Sinervo et al. (p. 894; see the Perspective by Huey et al.) find that extinctions resulting from climate change are currently reducing global lizard diversity. Climate records during the past century were synthesized with detailed surveys of Mexican species at 200 sites over the past 30 years. Temperature change has been so rapid in this region that rates of adaptation have not kept pace with climate change. The models were then extended to all families of lizards at >1000 sites across the globe, and suggest that climate change-induced extinctions are currently affecting worldwide lizard assemblages. A historical record of lizard populations in Mexico is used to parameterize models that predict global effects of climate change. It is predicted that climate change will cause species extinctions and distributional shifts in coming decades, but data to validate these predictions are relatively scarce. Here, we compare recent and historical surveys for 48 Mexican lizard species at 200 sites. Since 1975, 12% of local populations have gone extinct. We verified physiological models of extinction risk with observed local extinctions and extended projections worldwide. Since 1975, we estimate that 4% of local populations have gone extinct worldwide, but by 2080 local extinctions are projected to reach 39% worldwide, and species extinctions may reach 20%. Global extinction projections were validated with local extinctions observed from 1975 to 2009 for regional biotas on four other continents, suggesting that lizards have already crossed a threshold for extinctions caused by climate change.

Species delimitation with ABC and other coalescent-based methods: a test of accuracy with simulations and an empirical example with lizards of the Liolaemus darwinii complex (Squamata: Liolaemidae).

Species delimitation is a major research focus in evolutionary biology because accurate species boundaries are a prerequisite for the study of speciation. New species delimitation methods (SDMs) can accommodate nonmonophyletic species and gene tree discordance as a result of incomplete lineage sorting via the coalescent model, but do not explicitly accommodate gene flow after divergence. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) can incorporate gene flow and estimate other relevant parameters of the speciation process while testing alternative species delimitation hypotheses. We evaluated the accuracy of BPP, SpeDeSTEM, and ABC for delimiting species using simulated data and applied these methods to empirical data from lizards of the Liolaemus darwinii complex. Overall, BPP was the most accurate, ABC showed an intermediate accuracy, and SpeDeSTEM was the least accurate under most simulated conditions. All three SDMs showed lower accuracy when speciation occurred despite gene flow, as found in previous studies, but ABC was the method with the smallest decrease in accuracy. All three SDMs consistently supported the distinctness of southern and northern lineages within L. darwinii. These SDMs based on genetic data should be complemented with novel SDMs based on morphological and ecological data to achieve truly integrative and statistically robust approaches to species discovery.

PHYLOGENY AND PHYLOGEOGRAPHY OF THE LIOLAEMUS DARWINII COMPLEX (SQUAMATA: LIOLAEMIDAE): EVIDENCE FOR INTROGRESSION AND INCOMPLETE LINEAGE SORTING

Abstract Although mitochondrial DNA markers have several properties that make them suitable for phylogeographic studies, they are not free of difficulties. Phylogeographic inferences within and between closely related species can be mislead by introgression and retention of ancestral polymorphism. Here we combine different phylogenetic, phylogeographic, and population genetic methods to extract the maximum information from the Liolaemus darwinii complex. We estimate the phylogeographic structure ofL. darwinii across most of its distributional range, and we then estimate relationships between L. darwinii and the syntopic species L. laurenti and L. grosseorum. Our results suggest that range expansion of these lineages brought them into secondary contact in areas where they are presently in syntopy. Here we present the first evidence for introgression in lizards from temperate South America (ofL. darwinii mitochondrial DNA into L. laurenti and L. grosseorum), and for incomplete lineage sorting (between L. darwinii and L. laurenti). We show that a combination of methods can provide additional support for inferences derived from any single method and thus provide more robust interpretations and narrow the range of plausible hypotheses about mechanisms and processes of divergence. Additional studies are needed in this group of lizards and in other codis‐tributed groups to determine if Pleistocene climatic changes could be a general factor influencing the evolutionary history of a regional biota.

Lizards from the end of the world: Phylogenetic relationships of the Liolaemus lineomaculatus section (Squamata: Iguania: Liolaemini)

The Liolaemus lineomaculatus section is a geographically widely distributed group of lizards from the Patagonian region of southern South America, and includes 18 described species representing the most southerly distributed Liolaemus taxa (the genus includes 228 species and extends from Tierra del Fuego north to south-central Peru). Despite high species diversity, the phylogenetic relationships of this section are unknown. In the present work we sampled all described species in the L. lineomaculatus section as well as currently undescribed candidate species to reconstruct the first complete phylogenetic hypothesis for the clade. Our data set included four anonymous nuclear loci, three nuclear protein-coding loci, and two mitochondrial genes. We compared results obtained with three different phylogenetic methods for the concatenated data set (Maximum Parsimony, Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian Inference) with a coalescent-based species tree approach (BEST), and recovered congruent, strongly-supported topological arrangements across all methods. We identified four main clades within the L. lineomaculatus section: the lineomaculatus, magellanicus, somuncurae, and kingii+archeforus groups, for which we estimated divergence times. We discuss the taxonomic implications of these results and how the future integration of phylogeographic, niche modeling and morphological approaches will allow testing biogeographical hypotheses in this clade.

PHYLOGENETIC RELATIONSHIPS OF LIZARDS OF THE LIOLAEMUS PETROPHILUS GROUP (SQUAMATA, LIOLAEMIDAE), WITH DESCRIPTION OF TWO NEW SPECIES FROM WESTERN ARGENTINA

We describe two new species of lizards of the genus Liolaemus from western Argentina. Both species belong to the petrophilus group and are easily distinguished from other members by a combination of chromatic and squamation characters. We used sequences of the mitochondrial cyt–b, 12S, and ND4 and the nuclear C–mos genes to infer the phylogeny of described species of the group. We found evidence for a monophyletic petrophilus group within the L. elongatus–kriegi complex. The petrophilus group includes Liolaemus petrophilus and two strongly supported clades, one containing the species distributed in the north, which includes one of the new species, L. talampaya; the second clade includes the species distributed in the south, including the new species, L. gununakuna.

Evidence of hybridization in the Argentinean lizards Liolaemus gracilis and Liolaemus bibronii (IGUANIA: LIOLAEMINI): An integrative approach based on genes and morphology

The lizard genus Liolaemus is endemic to temperate South America and includes more than 225 species. Liolaemus gracilis and L. bibronii are closely related species that have large and overlapping geographic distributions, and the objective of this work is to further investigate the L. bibronii-L. gracilis mtDNA paraphyletic pattern previously detected, using an integrative approach, based on mtDNA, nuclear DNA and morphological characters. We identified eight morphological L. bibronii introgressed with L. gracilis mtDNAs, and the reciprocal for one L. gracilis, from six localities in the region of sympatry overlap. The morphological identity of these introgressed individuals was confirmed by diagnostic nuclear markers, and this represents the first well-documented case of interspecific hybridization in the lizard genus Liolaemus. Of the three most likely hypotheses for these observed patterns, we suggest that asymmetrical mtDNA introgression as a result of recent or ongoing hybridization between L. bibronii and L. gracilis is the most likely. This may be due to size selection by L. gracilis female preference for the larger L. bibroni males in sympatry, but this requires experimental confirmation.

A molecular phylogeny of the lizard genus Phymaturus (Squamata, Liolaemini): Implications for species diversity and historical biogeography of southern South America

The lizard genus Phymaturus is widely distributed in Argentina and along the eastern edge of Chile between 25° and 45° south. We sampled 27 of the 38 currently recognized species plus 22 candidate species using two mitochondrial genes (cytb and 12S), four protein coding nuclear genes and seven anonymous nuclear loci, and present the first comprehensive molecular phylogenetic hypothesis for the clade. We recovered two large clades (the palluma or northern group and patagonicus or southern group) previously recognized on the basis of morphological and mitochondrial sequence evidence, and compared results obtained from concatenated-gene analyses with results of a coalescent-based species-tree approach (BEST). With both methods we identified four main clades within the palluma group (mallimaccii, roigorum, verdugo, and vociferator) and five main clades within the patagonicus group (calcogaster, indistinctus, payuniae, somuncurensis, and spurcus). We found several instances of non-monophyly with cytb and cases of incongruence between mitochondrial vs nuclear data for which we discuss alternative hypotheses. Although with lower support values, combined BEST results are more congruent with concatenated nuclear data than with combined concatenated analyses, suggesting that BEST is less influenced by demographic processes than combined concatenated analyses. We discuss the taxonomic, biogeographic and conservation implications of these results and how the future integration of phylogeographic and morphological approaches will allow the further testing of demographic and biogeographic hypotheses.

Quaternary range and demographic expansion of Liolaemus darwinii (Squamata: Liolaemidae) in the Monte Desert of Central Argentina using Bayesian phylogeography and ecological niche modelling

Until recently, most phylogeographic approaches have been unable to distinguish between demographic and range expansion processes, making it difficult to test for the possibility of range expansion without population growth and vice versa. In this study, we applied a Bayesian phylogeographic approach to reconstruct both demographic and range expansion in the lizard Liolaemus darwinii of the Monte Desert in Central Argentina, during the Late Quaternary. Based on analysis of 14 anonymous nuclear loci and the cytochrome b mitochondrial DNA gene, we detected signals of demographic expansion starting at ~55 ka based on Bayesian Skyline and Skyride Plots. In contrast, Bayesian relaxed models of spatial diffusion suggested that range expansion occurred only between ~95 and 55 ka, and more recently, diffusion rates were very low during demographic expansion. The possibility of population growth without substantial range expansion could account for the shared patterns of demographic expansion during the Last Glacial Maxima (OIS 2 and 4) in fish, small mammals and other lizards of the Monte Desert. We found substantial variation in diffusion rates over time, and very high rates during the range expansion phase, consistent with a rapidly advancing expansion front towards the southeast shown by palaeo‐distribution models. Furthermore, the estimated diffusion rates are congruent with observed dispersal rates of lizards in field conditions and therefore provide additional confidence to the temporal scale of inferred phylogeographic patterns. Our study highlights how the integration of phylogeography with palaeo‐distribution models can shed light on both demographic and range expansion processes and their potential causes.

New Species of the Iguanian Lizard Genus Liolaemus (Squamata, Iguania, Liolaemini) from Central Patagonia, Argentina

Abstract We describe a new species of lizard of the genus Liolaemus from northwestern Chubut Province, Argentina. This new species belongs to the fitzingerii group and is easily distinguished from other members of the group by a combination of morphological and genetic characters. The new species is diagnosable in showing the following combination of characters: dorsal pattern with a conspicuous vertebral band, presence of pre- and postscapular spots, prominent neck folds, and analysis of DNA sequence data from 810 base pairs of the cytochrome b gene (∼4% sequence divergence from its sister taxa Liolaemus fitzingerii). The fitzingerii complex now includes three described species, all restricted to Patagonia, and the new species described here is endemic to a small lowland area in central Patagonia.

Early stages of divergence: phylogeography, climate modeling, and morphological differentiation in the South American lizard Liolaemus petrophilus (Squamata: Liolaemidae)

This study examines the phylogeographic structure within the Patagonian lizard Liolaemus petrophilus and tests for patterns of between-clade morphological divergence and sexual dimorphism, as well as demographic and niche changes associated with Pleistocene climate changes. We inferred intraspecific relationships, tested hypotheses for historical patterns of population expansion, and incorporated ecological niche modeling (ENM) with standard morphological and geometric morphometric analyses to examine between-clade divergence as indirect evidence for adaptation to different niches. The two inferred haploclades diverged during the early Pleistocene with the Southern clade depicting the genetic signature of a recent population increase associated with expanding niche envelope, whereas the Northern clade shows stable populations in a shrinking niche envelope. The combination of molecular evidence for postisolation demographic change and ENM, suggest that the two haploclades have responded differently to Pleistocene climatic events.