Lučka Kajfež-Bogataj

Impact of Climate Change on Developmental Dynamics of Thrips tabaci (Thysanoptera: Thripidae): Can It Be Quantified?

Abstract We attempt to quantify the impact of future climate change on the developmental dynamics of onion thrips in Slovenia. Monthly averaged results of simulations of future climate from four different general circulation models (GCMs) were projected to local scale by empirical downscaling. The GCM simulations were based on two emission scenarios (IPCC SRES A2 and B2). Local estimates of monthly averaged air temperatures for five locations in Slovenia were adjusted for an additional four emission scenarios (SRES A1T, A1F1, A1B, and B1) using a pattern scaling technique. They were further transferred to a daily scale using a first-order autoregressive model. A simple degree-day model, based on data reported in the literature, was used to relate the development of onion thrips to temperature. Potential changes in the period with favorable developmental conditions for onion thrips (i.e., temperatures above the lower developmental threshold) and in the number of generations per season were estimated with regard to the expected future climate change in Slovenia. The changes are influenced by the magnitude of temperature increase, its asymmetry within the year, and present climate conditions. Using this approach, one can obtain quantitative estimates of the impact of climate change on the developmental dynamics of an insect pest, but one must be fully cognizant of all the assumptions made in the procedure, which introduce uncertainties in the final results. Further research is needed to evaluate the plausibility of such simplified projections.

Modelling drainage fluxes in managed and natural forests in the Dinaric karst: a model comparison study

Two models for calculating the forest water balance were applied to different development stages of managed and non-managed forests in the Dinaric Karst for two hydrologically contrasting growing seasons. A simple model WATBAL, which calculates water balance on a monthly basis, and the BROOK90 model, which calculates water balance on daily basis, were used. Differences between calculated drainage fluxes between the models were less pronounced in the drier growing season and were lower in the forest stands compared to forest gaps. Average calculated drainage fluxes of the two growing seasons were highest in the gaps and lowest in the stand in the virgin forest remnant, followed by the mature stand in the managed forest. According to model fitting, testing the calibration robustness and sensitivity analysis the BROOK90 model was considered best at simulating the water balance of the various research sites. The difference in model behaviour is considered to be mainly the result of the difference in model time step and the inclusion of macropore flow in BROOK90. The greater complexity of the BROOK90 model meant it could be parameterized to describe more fully the complexity of the horizontal and vertical structure of forest stand and soil properties. A disadvantage of the BROOK90 model is the greater need of input data. WATBAL, however, was useful for obtaining rougher estimates of the water balance components and can be applied to areas where there is less data available. Choice of model is therefore determined by data availability.

Influence of daily individual meteorological parameters on the incidence of acute coronary syndrome.

Background: A nationwide study was conducted to explore the short term association between daily individual meteorological parameters and the incidence of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) treated with coronary emergency catheter interventions in the Republic of Slovenia, a south-central European country. Method: We linked meteorological data with daily ACS incidence for the entire population of Slovenia, for the population over 65 years of age and for the population under 65 years of age. Data were collected daily for a period of 4 years from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2011. In line with existing studies, we used a main effect generalized linear model with a log-link-function and a Poisson distribution of ACS. Results and Conclusions: Three of the studied meteorological factors (daily average temperature, atmospheric pressure and relative humidity) all have relevant and significant influences on ACS incidences for the entire population. However, the ACS incidence for the population over 65 is only affected by daily average temperature, while the ACS incidence for the population under 65 is affected by daily average pressure and humidity. In terms of ambient temperature, the overall findings of our study are in line with the findings of the majority of contemporary European studies, which also note a negative correlation. The results regarding atmospheric pressure and humidity are less in line, due to considerable variations in results. Additionally, the number of available European studies on atmospheric pressure and humidity is relatively low. The fourth studied variable—season—does not influence ACS incidence in a statistically significant way.

Do variations in leaf phenology affect radial growth variations in Fagus sylvatica

We used a dendrochronological and leaf phenology network of European beech (Fagus sylvatica) in Slovenia, a transitional area between Mediterranean, Alpine and continental climatic regimes, for the period 1955–2007 to test whether year to year variations in leaf unfolding and canopy duration (i.e. time between leaf unfolding and colouring) influence radial growth (annual xylem production and tree ring widths) and if such influences are more pronounced at higher altitudes. We showed that variability in leaf phenology has no significant effect on variations in radial growth. The results are consistent in the entire region, irrespective of the climatic regime or altitude, although previous studies have shown that leaf phenology and tree ring variation depend on altitude. The lack of relationship between year to year variability in leaf phenology and radial growth may suggest that earlier leaf unfolding—as observed in a previous study—probably does not cause increased tree growth rates in beech in Slovenia.