Luis E. Escobar

Ecology and Geography of Transmission of Two Bat-Borne Rabies Lineages in Chile

Rabies was known to humans as a disease thousands of years ago. In America, insectivorous bats are natural reservoirs of rabies virus. The bat species Tadarida brasiliensis and Lasiurus cinereus, with their respective, host-specific rabies virus variants AgV4 and AgV6, are the principal rabies reservoirs in Chile. However, little is known about the roles of bat species in the ecology and geographic distribution of the virus. This contribution aims to address a series of questions regarding the ecology of rabies transmission in Chile. Analyzing records from 1985–2011 at the Instituto de Salud Pública de Chile (ISP) and using ecological niche modeling, we address these questions to help in understanding rabies-bat ecological dynamics in South America. We found ecological niche identity between both hosts and both viral variants, indicating that niches of all actors in the system are undifferentiated, although the viruses do not necessarily occupy the full geographic distributions of their hosts. Bat species and rabies viruses share similar niches, and our models had significant predictive power even across unsampled regions; results thus suggest that outbreaks may occur under consistent, stable, and predictable circumstances.

A global map of suitability for coastal Vibrio cholerae under current and future climate conditions.

Vibrio cholerae is a globally distributed water-borne pathogen that causes severe diarrheal disease and mortality, with current outbreaks as part of the seventh pandemic. Further understanding of the role of environmental factors in potential pathogen distribution and corresponding V. cholerae disease transmission over time and space is urgently needed to target surveillance of cholera and other climate and water-sensitive diseases. We used an ecological niche model (ENM) to identify environmental variables associated with V. cholerae presence in marine environments, to project a global model of V. cholerae distribution in ocean waters under current and future climate scenarios. We generated an ENM using published reports of V. cholerae in seawater and freely available remotely sensed imagery. Models indicated that factors associated with V. cholerae presence included chlorophyll-a, pH, and sea surface temperature (SST), with chlorophyll-a demonstrating the greatest explanatory power from variables selected for model calibration. We identified specific geographic areas for potential V. cholerae distribution. Coastal Bangladesh, where cholera is endemic, was found to be environmentally similar to coastal areas in Latin America. In a conservative climate change scenario, we observed a predicted increase in areas with environmental conditions suitable for V. cholerae. Findings highlight the potential for vulnerability maps to inform cholera surveillance, early warning systems, and disease prevention and control.

Potential Geographic Distribution of Hantavirus Reservoirs in Brazil

Hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome is an emerging zoonosis in Brazil. Human infections occur via inhalation of aerosolized viral particles from excreta of infected wild rodents. Necromys lasiurus and Oligoryzomys nigripes appear to be the main reservoirs of hantavirus in the Atlantic Forest and Cerrado biomes. We estimated and compared ecological niches of the two rodent species, and analyzed environmental factors influencing their occurrence, to understand the geography of hantavirus transmission. N. lasiurus showed a wide potential distribution in Brazil, in the Cerrado, Caatinga, and Atlantic Forest biomes. Highest climate suitability for O. nigripes was observed along the Brazilian Atlantic coast. Maximum temperature in the warmest months and annual precipitation were the variables that most influence the distributions of N. lasiurus and O. nigripes, respectively. Models based on occurrences of infected rodents estimated a broader area of risk for hantavirus transmission in southeastern and southern Brazil, coinciding with the distribution of human cases of hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome. We found no demonstrable environmental differences among occurrence sites for the rodents and for human cases of hantavirus. However, areas of northern and northeastern Brazil are also apparently suitable for the two species, without broad coincidence with human cases. Modeling of niches and distributions of rodent reservoirs indicates potential for transmission of hantavirus across virtually all of Brazil outside the Amazon Basin.

Advances and Limitations of Disease Biogeography Using Ecological Niche Modeling.

Mapping disease transmission risk is crucial in public and animal health for evidence based decision-making. Ecology and epidemiology are highly related disciplines that may contribute to improvements in mapping disease, which can be used to answer health related questions. Ecological niche modeling is increasingly used for understanding the biogeography of diseases in plants, animals, and humans. However, epidemiological applications of niche modeling approaches for disease mapping can fail to generate robust study designs, producing incomplete or incorrect inferences. This manuscript is an overview of the history and conceptual bases behind ecological niche modeling, specifically as applied to epidemiology and public health; it does not pretend to be an exhaustive and detailed description of ecological niche modeling literature and methods. Instead, this review includes selected state-of-the-science approaches and tools, providing a short guide to designing studies incorporating information on the type and quality of the input data (i.e., occurrences and environmental variables), identification and justification of the extent of the study area, and encourages users to explore and test diverse algorithms for more informed conclusions. We provide a friendly introduction to the field of disease biogeography presenting an updated guide for researchers looking to use ecological niche modeling for disease mapping. We anticipate that ecological niche modeling will soon be a critical tool for epidemiologists aiming to map disease transmission risk, forecast disease distribution under climate change scenarios, and identify landscape factors triggering outbreaks.

The history of rabies in the Western Hemisphere

Before the introduction of control programs in the 20th century, rabies in domestic dogs occurred throughout the Western Hemisphere. However, historical records and phylogenetic analysis of multiple virus isolates indicate that, before the arrival of the first European colonizers, rabies virus was likely present only in bats and skunks. Canine rabies was either rare or absent among domestic dogs of Native Americans, and first arrived when many new dog breeds were imported during the period of European colonization. The introduction of the cosmopolitan dog rabies lyssavirus variant and the marked expansion of the dog population provided ideal conditions for the flourishing of enzootic canine rabies. The shift of dog-maintained viruses into gray foxes, coyotes, skunks and other wild mesocarnivores throughout the Americas and to mongooses in the Caribbean has augmented the risk of human rabies exposures and has complicated control efforts. At the same time, the continued presence of bat rabies poses novel challenges in the absolute elimination of canine and human rabies. This article compiles existing historical and phylogenetic evidence of the origins and subsequent dynamics of rabies in the Western Hemisphere, from the era preceding the arrival of the first European colonizers through the present day. A companion article reviews the current status of canine rabies control throughout the Western Hemisphere and steps that will be required to achieve and maintain its complete elimination (Velasco-Villa et al., in press).

Realized niche shift associated with the Eurasian charophyte Nitellopsis obtusa becoming invasive in North America

Nitellopsis obtusa (starry stonewort) is a dioecious green alga native to Europe and Asia that has emerged as an aquatic invasive species in North America. Nitellopsis obtusa is rare across large portions of its native range, but has spread rapidly in northern-tier lakes in the United States, where it can interfere with recreation and may displace native species. Little is known about the invasion ecology of N. obtusa, making it difficult to forecast future expansion. Using ecological niche modeling we investigated environmental variables associated with invasion risk. We used species records, climate data, and remotely sensed environmental variables to characterize the species’ multidimensional distribution. We found that N. obtusa is exploiting novel ecological niche space in its introduced range, which may help explain its invasiveness. While the fundamental niche of N. obtusa may be stable, there appears to have been a shift in its realized niche associated with invasion in North America. Large portions of the United States are predicted to constitute highly suitable habitat for N. obtusa. Our results can inform early detection and rapid response efforts targeting N. obtusa and provide testable estimates of the physiological tolerances of this species as a baseline for future empirical research.

Forecasting Chikungunya spread in the Americas via data-driven empirical approaches

BackgroundChikungunya virus (CHIKV) is endemic to Africa and Asia, but the Asian genotype invaded the Americas in 2013. The fast increase of human infections in the American epidemic emphasized the urgency of developing detailed predictions of case numbers and the potential geographic spread of this disease.MethodsWe developed a simple model incorporating cases generated locally and cases imported from other countries, and forecasted transmission hotspots at the level of countries and at finer scales, in terms of ecological features.ResultsBy late January 2015, >1.2xa0M CHIKV cases were reported from the Americas, with country-level prevalences between nil and more than 20xa0%. In the early stages of the epidemic, exponential growth in case numbers was common; later, however, poor and uneven reporting became more common, in a phenomenon we term surveillance fatigue. Economic activity of countries was not associated with prevalence, but diverse social factors may be linked to surveillance effort and reporting.ConclusionsOur model predictions were initially quite inaccurate, but improved markedly as more data accumulated within the Americas. The data-driven methodology explored in this study provides an opportunity to generate descriptive and predictive information on spread of emerging diseases in the short-term under simple models based on open-access tools and data that can inform early-warning systems and public health intelligence.

Potential distribution of the viral haemorrhagic septicaemia virus in the Great Lakes region.

Viral haemorrhagic septicaemia virus (VHSV) genotype IVb has been responsible for large-scale fish mortality events in the Great Lakes of North America. Anticipating the areas of potential VHSV occurrence is key to designing epidemiological surveillance and disease prevention strategies in the Great Lakes basin. We explored the environmental features that could shape the distribution of VHSV, based on remote sensing and climate data via ecological niche modelling. Variables included temperature measured during the day and night, precipitation, vegetation, bathymetry, solar radiation and topographic wetness. VHSV occurrences were obtained from available reports of virus confirmation in laboratory facilities. We fit a Maxent model using VHSV-IVb reports and environmental variables under different parameterizations to identify the best model to determine potential VHSV occurrence based on environmental suitability. VHSV reports were generated from both passive and active surveillance. VHSV occurrences were most abundant near shore sites. We were, however, able to capture the environmental signature of VHSV based on the environmental variables employed in our model, allowing us to identify patterns of VHSV potential occurrence. Our findings suggest that VHSV is not at an ecological equilibrium and more areas could be affected, including areas not in close geographic proximity to past VHSV reports.

Successful strategies implemented towards the elimination of canine rabies in the Western Hemisphere

Abstract Almost all cases of human rabies result from dog bites, making the elimination of canine rabies a global priority. During recent decades, many countries in the Western Hemisphere have carried out large‐scale dog vaccination campaigns, controlled their free‐ranging dog populations and enforced legislation for responsible pet ownership. This article reviews progress in eliminating canine rabies from the Western Hemisphere. After briefly summarizing the history of control efforts and describing the approaches listed above, we note that programs in some countries have been hindered by societal attitudes and severe economic disparities, which underlines the need to discuss measures that will be required to complete the elimination of canine rabies throughout the region. We also note that there is a constant threat for dog‐maintained epizootics to re‐occur, so as long as dog‐maintained rabies “hot spots” are still present, free‐roaming dog populations remain large, herd immunity becomes low and dog‐derived rabies lyssavirus (RABLV) variants continue to circulate in close proximity to rabies‐naïve dog populations. The elimination of dog‐maintained rabies will be only feasible if both dog‐maintained and dog‐derived RABLV lineages and variants are permanently eliminated. This may be possible by keeping dog herd immunity above 70% at all times, fostering sustained laboratory‐based surveillance through reliable rabies diagnosis and RABLV genetic typing in dogs, domestic animals and wildlife, as well as continuing to educate the population on the risk of rabies transmission, prevention and responsible pet ownership. Complete elimination of canine rabies requires permanent funding, with governments and people committed to make it a reality. An accompanying article reviews the history and epidemiology of canine rabies in the Western Hemisphere, beginning with its introduction during the period of European colonization, and discusses how spillovers of viruses between dogs and various wild carnivores will affect future eradication efforts (Velasco‐Villa et al., 2017). HighlightsRecognition of dog‐maintained rabies as a public health problem allowed establishment of effective control programs.Mass dog vaccination campaigns coupled with population management strategies have been critical for rabies control.Maintaining adequate herd immunity in the dog population is critical to prevent the return of dog‐derived rabies variants.Operation of a revolving fund for the acquisition of rabies biologics has reduced vaccination disparities in Latin America.Consistent and comprehensive laboratory‐based monitoring of rabies virus variants is required to certify rabies‐free areas.

Declining Prevalence of Disease Vectors Under Climate Change

More than half of the world population is at risk of vector-borne diseases including dengue fever, chikungunya, zika, yellow fever, leishmaniasis, chagas disease, and malaria, with highest incidences in tropical regions. In Ecuador, vector-borne diseases are present from coastal and Amazonian regions to the Andes Mountains; however, a detailed characterization of the distribution of their vectors has never been carried out. We estimate the distribution of 14 vectors of the above vector-borne diseases under present-day and future climates. Our results consistently suggest that climate warming is likely threatening some vector species with extinction, locally or completely. These results suggest that climate change could reduce the burden of specific vector species. Other vector species are likely to shift and constrain their geographic range to the highlands in Ecuador potentially affecting novel areas and populations. These forecasts show the need for development of early prevention strategies for vector species currently absent in areas projected as suitable under future climate conditions. Informed interventions could reduce the risk of human exposure to vector species with distributional shifts, in response to current and future climate changes. Based on the mixed effects of future climate on human exposure to disease vectors, we argue that research on vector-borne diseases should be cross-scale and include climatic, demographic, and landscape factors, as well as forces facilitating disease transmission at fine scales.