Luis Garrote

Physical and economic consequences of climate change in Europe

Quantitative estimates of the economic damages of climate change usually are based on aggregate relationships linking average temperature change to loss in gross domestic product (GDP). However, there is a clear need for further detail in the regional and sectoral dimensions of impact assessments to design and prioritize adaptation strategies. New developments in regional climate modeling and physical-impact modeling in Europe allow a better exploration of those dimensions. This article quantifies the potential consequences of climate change in Europe in four market impact categories (agriculture, river floods, coastal areas, and tourism) and one nonmarket impact (human health). The methodology integrates a set of coherent, high-resolution climate change projections and physical models into an economic modeling framework. We find that if the climate of the 2080s were to occur today, the annual loss in household welfare in the European Union (EU) resulting from the four market impacts would range between 0.2–1%. If the welfare loss is assumed to be constant over time, climate change may halve the EUs annual welfare growth. Scenarios with warmer temperatures and a higher rise in sea level result in more severe economic damage. However, the results show that there are large variations across European regions. Southern Europe, the British Isles, and Central Europe North appear most sensitive to climate change. Northern Europe, on the other hand, is the only region with net economic benefits, driven mainly by the positive effects on agriculture. Coastal systems, agriculture, and river flooding are the most important of the four market impacts assessed.

A regional comparison of the effects of climate change on agricultural crops in Europe

The effects of climate change will be felt by most farmers in Europe over the next decades. This study provides consistent results of the impact of climate change on arable agriculture in Europe by using high resolution climate data, socio-economic data, and impact assessment models, including farmer adaptation. All scenarios are consistent with the spatial distribution of effects, exacerbating regional disparities and current vulnerability to climate. Since the results assume no restrictions on the use of water for irrigation or on the application of agrochemicals, they may be considered optimistic from the production point of view and somewhat pessimistic from the environmental point of view. The results provide an estimate of the regional economic impact of climate change, as well as insights into the importance of mitigation and adaptation policies.

From climate change impacts to the development of adaptation strategies: Challenges for agriculture in Europe

This study links climate change impacts to the development of adaptation strategies for agriculture in Europe. Climate change is expected to intensify the existing risks, particularly in southern regions, and create new opportunities in some northern areas. These risks and opportunities are characterised and interpreted across European regions by analysing over 300 highly relevant publications that appeared in the last decade. The result is a synthesis of the reasons for concern for European agricultural regions. The need to respond to these risks and opportunities is addressed by evaluating the costs and benefits of a number of technical and policy actions. The results highlight the importance of enhanced water use efficiency as a critical response to climate risks and the need for a more effective extension service. These results aim to assist stakeholders as they take up the adaptation challenge and develop measures to reduce the vulnerability of the sector to climate change.

Climate change impacts in Europe. Final report of the PESETA research project

The PESETA research project integrates a set of high-resolution climate change projections and physical models into an economic modelling framework to quantify the impacts of climate change on vulnerable aspects of Europe. Four market impact categories are considered (agriculture, river floods, coastal systems, and tourism) and one non-market category (human health). Considering the market impacts, without public adaptation and if the climate of the 2080s occurred today, the EU annual welfare loss would be in the range of 0.2% to 1%, depending on the climate scenario. However, there is large variation across different climate futures, EU regions and impact categories. Scenarios with warmer temperatures and higher sea level rise result in more severe economic damage for the EU. Southern Europe, the British Isles and Central Europe North appear to be the most sensitive regions to climate change. Northern Europe is the only region with net economic benefits, mainly driven by the positive effects in agriculture. Concerning the contribution to the overall effects, coastal systems, agriculture and river flooding are the most important ones.

Coping with Drought Risk in Agriculture and Water Supply Systems

Foreword Part I Challenges to drought management in Mediterranean countries 1. Drought Monitoring as a Component of Drought Preparedness Planning Donald A. Wilhite 2. Soft law principles for improving drought management in Mediterranean countries Esther Lopez-Barrero and Ana Iglesias 3. A checklist for drought policy development Nicos X. Tsiourtis 4. An environmental focus on drought: the Water Framework Directive Abel La Calle Marcos 5. Guidelines to develop drought management plans Ana Iglesias, Luis Garrote and Antonino Cancelliere Part II Methods and approaches for drought management 6. Drought characterisation in the Mediterranean George Tsakiris and Dialekti Pangalou 7. A Paradigm for Applying Risk and Hazard Concepts in Proactive Planning George Tsakiris 8. Assessment of drought risk in water supply systems Antonino Cancelliere, Vincenzo Nicolosi and Giuseppe Rossi 9. Mathematical models for reservoir operation in Tunisia Mohammed Hedi Louati and Fethi Lebdi 10. Risk management instruments supporting drought planning and policy Alberto Garrido, Almudena Gomez-Ramos 11. Methods for evaluating social vulnerability to drought Ana Iglesias, Marta Moneo and Sonia Quiroga 12. Methods for social participation and conflict resolution Ignacio Celaya, Antonio Rodriguez Perea and Xavi Carbonell Part III Learning from the Case studies 13. Development of drought management plans in Spain Luis Garrote, Ana Iglesias and Francisco Flores 14. Characterizing drought risk in a Sicilian river basin Giuseppe Rossi, Brunella Bonaccorso, Vincenzo Nicolosi and Antonino Cancelliere 15. The role of groundwater during drought Maria Casado, Francisco Flores and Roberto Gil 16. Drought severity thresholds and drought management in Greece Dialekti Pangalou, Dimitris Tigkas, Harris Vangelis, George Tsakiris and Aikaterini Nanou-Giannarou 17. Using and testing drought indicators Luis Garcia, Alejandro Carrasco and Juan Carlos Ibanez 18. Drought management in the urban water supply system of Canal de Isabel II, Spain Francisco Cubillo 19. The role of non-conventional and lower quality water for the satisfaction of the domestic needs in drought management plans Nicos X. Tsiourtis Annex 1. Glossary of terms and concepts

Diagnosing Causes of Water Scarcity in Complex Water Resources Systems and Identifying Risk Management Actions

From the water management perspective, water scarcity is an unacceptable risk of facing water shortages to serve water demands in the near future. Water scarcity may be temporary and related to drought conditions or other accidental situation, or may be permanent and due to deeper causes such as excessive demand growth, lack of infrastructure for water storage or transport, or constraints in water management. Diagnosing the causes of water scarcity in complex water resources systems is a precondition to adopt effective drought risk management actions. In this paper we present four indices which have been developed to evaluate water scarcity. We propose a methodology for interpretation of index values that can lead to conclusions about the reliability and vulnerability of systems to water scarcity, as well as to diagnose their possible causes and to propose solutions. The described methodology was applied to the Ebro river basin, identifying existing and expected problems and possible solutions. System diagnostics, based exclusively on the analysis of index values, were compared with the known reality as perceived by system managers, validating the conclusions in all cases.

Smoothed particle hydrodynamics model applied to hydraulic structures: a hydraulic jump test case

The capability of Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) to reproduce a mobile hydraulic jump was investigated.A similar case was used to generate different upstream Froude numbers to obtain several jump shapes. A physical model was then constructed in a test flume to check the SPH outcomes. The results showed good agreement for Froude numbers <5. Higher Froude numbers require more sophisticated turbulence closure models to obtain better results. Good outcomes can be achieved with k-ε models, but the computational cost is higher than for basic SPH. Instead, a simple method was implemented to increase the viscosity in areas of higher vorticity. In this case, the main difference is related to the dependence of the viscosity on the vorticity. This approach yielded better adjustment. Finally, it was found that SPH provides correct estimates of the average pressures at the boundaries, but exhibits large dispersion for instantaneous water height values. This problem was considerably attenuated by introduction of a turbulence model.

Quantitative Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerability of Irrigation Demands in Mediterranean Europe

This paper presents an analysis of water resources management under climate change in Southern European River Basin Districts. The analysis is based on the Water Availability and Adaptation Policy Analysis (WAAPA) model, which focuses on the quantitative evaluation of maximum potential water withdrawal for different types of demands. The Water Availability and Adaptation Policy Analysis model performs the simulation of water resources systems at the monthly time scale and allows the estimation of the demand-reliability curve in every subbasin of the river network. Over sixty River Basin Districts of Southern Europe have been analyzed, taking basic information from publicly available databases: basin topology from the Hydro1K database, average runoff from the University of New Hampshire Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) composite runoff field, population from the Global Rural–urban Mapping Project (GRUMP) and irrigation area from the Global Map of Irrigated Area dataset. Streamflow monthly time series were obtained from the results of the ENSEMBLES project in four climate scenarios for time horizon 2070–2100. Climate change vulnerability of irrigation demands is estimated from changes in maximum potential water withdrawals for irrigation in current and future scenarios. Maximum potential water withdrawal for irrigation was computed as the largest value of irrigation demand that could be supplied with a given reliability requirement once the existing urban demand is adequately satisfied. The results show significant regional disparities in vulnerability to climate change in the irrigation sector across Europe. The greatest vulnerabilities have been obtained for Southwest Europe (Iberian Peninsula) and some basins in Italy and Greece.

Impacts of climate change in agriculture in Europe. PESETA-Agriculture study

The objective of the study is to provide a European assessment of the potential effects of climate change on agricultural crop production and monetary estimates of these impacts for the European agricultural sector. The future scenarios incorporate socio economic projections derived from several SRES scenarios and climate projections obtained from global climate models and regional climate models. The work links biophysical and statistical models in a rigorous and testable methodology, based on current understanding of processes of crop growth and development, to quantify crop responses to changing climate conditions. European crop yield changes were modeled under the HadCM3/HIRHAM A2 and B2 scenarios for the period 2071 - 2100 and for the ECHAM4/RCA3 A2 scenario for the period 2011 - 2040. The yield changes include the direct positive effects of CO2 on the crops, the rainfed and irrigated simulations in each district. Although each scenario projects different results, all three scenarios are consistent in the spatial distribution of effects. Crop suitability and productivity increases in Northern Europe are caused by lengthened growing season, decreasing cold effects on growth, and extension of the frost-free period. Crop productivity decreases in Southern Europe are caused by shortening of the growing period, with subsequent negative effects on grain filling. It is very important to notice that the simulations considered no restrictions in water availability for irrigation due to changes in policy. In all cases, the simulations did not include restrictions in the application of nitrogen fertilizer. Therefore the results should be considered optimistic from the production point and pessimistic from the environmental point of view.

A probabilistic model to support reservoir operation decisions during flash floods

Abstract A probabilistic model to assist decision makers in selecting the best reservoir operation strategy during flash floods is presented, based on Bayesian networks calibrated with the results of a rainfall—runoff model coupled with a reservoir operation model. During real-time operation, rainfall recorded in the basin is used to make probabilistic predictions of inflow discharge into the reservoir with a rainfall—runoff Bayesian network. The reservoir Bayesian network takes these probabilistic discharge values as input data and gives the probabilistic outflow discharge and water level at future time steps for the different operation strategies considered. From these probabilistic results, the best strategy for the operation of the floodgate can be selected in terms of the probability of maximum discharge downstream of the reservoir and risk of damage to the dam. Two data sets of 4000 inflow hydrographs were obtained through Monte Carlo simulation with a rainfall—runoff model and a reservoir management model. The Bayesian networks learned from the first data set and were validated with the second one. The methodology was tested successfully for one reservoir located in the south of Spain with observed data recorded during a recent flood event, checking its usefulness as a decision-making tool in real-time reservoir management.