Luis Moreno-Izquierdo

Economic crisis and tourism competitiveness in Spain: permanent effects or transitory shocks?

This paper considers the influence of business cycles and economic crises on Spains tourism competitiveness. This competitiveness is measured by its share in world tourism. Analysing the presence of unit roots in the market share series from 1958 to 2010, the permanent effects of economic crises on competitiveness are evaluated. The evidence from standard linear unit root tests indicates that crises on Spanish market shares are highly persistent. When we account for endogenously determined structural breaks, we obtain greater support for stationarity, but breakpoints are identified with major economic crises. Therefore the main conclusion obtained is that the effects of the economic shocks are not neutral on competitiveness, with the negative effects being more persistent in highly intensive crises. These crises reinforce a natural downward trend of the Spanish world tourism market share caused by the natural emergence of new competing destinations and by the maturity of the Spains principal tourism product.

The impact of the internet on the pricing strategies of the European low cost airlines

This study seeks to analyse the price determination of low cost airlines in Europe and the effect that Internet has on this strategy. The outcomes obtained reveal that both users and companies benefit from the use of ICTs in the purchase and sale of airline tickets: the Internet allows consumers to increase their bargaining power comparing different airlines and choosing the most competitive flight, while companies can easily check the behaviour of users to adapt their pricing strategies using internal information.

Winners and losers in the Arab uprisings: a Mediterranean tourism perspective

This paper analyses the effects of the recent Arab uprisings on tourism destinations located along the Mediterranean coastline. It uses time-series analysis to model international tourist arrivals. First, autoregressive integrated moving average models are estimated for the period 1980–2009 and predicted for 2010–2014 to establish suitable country controls. Second, Bayesian structural time-series models – designed primarily to determine causal impacts in on-line marketing campaigns – are used to establish the effects of the events in Tunisia, Egypt, Morocco, Turkey, Spain and Greece. The main conclusion is that the models clearly capture the negative impact of the uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt and their positive impacts on Morocco and Turkey. However, the effects on Spain and Greece are less clear and depend crucially on the set of controls used in the analysis.

Differences in the economic performance of hotel-based and residential tourist destinations measured by their retail activity. Evidence from Spain

This paper compares the economic performance of holiday and residential tourism destinations in Spain, as measured by the level of retail activity, from a quantitative perspective. Differences between destinations are explored. A positive association between the economic development of destinations and their retail index was expected. However, no significant differences were found between residential/second-home tourism and holiday/leisure tourism destinations. The results obtained contradict the conventional assumptions that holiday destinations perform better economically than residential ones due to a higher level of tourist spending of people accommodated in hotels.

Pricing Strategies of the European Low-Cost Carriers Explained Using Porter's Five Forces Model:

In recent decades, the air transport sector has experienced major changes, including the emergence of the low-cost airlines. The strategies adopted by these new companies have given rise to a revitalization of the sector, particularly in Europe and the USA. This article analyses the pricing strategy followed by the low-cost carriers based on Porters analysis. The research is based on the study of a total of 90 traditional tourist routes between the UK and Spain. As in previous studies, the high level of concentration and advance purchase of fares are the most important components explaining the price dispersion. However, the methodology used (principal component analysis + panel) has generated another series of highly interesting results regarding the role of the Internet and tourism in price setting which require further in-depth study.

Economic crises and market performance—A machine learning approach

This note analyzes the relationship between economic crises and tourism performance in Spain during the period 1970–2013 using machine learning techniques. Specifically, a regression tree is estimated to confirm that, although the dynamics of Spanish tourism performance is influenced by the general variables established by the literature, the crisis periods disrupt the natural functioning of these dynamics, provoking disturbances that affect the tourism market position of destinations to a greater extent than expected. Conversely, to other econometric techniques, machine learning approach allows us to achieve greater flexibility and enriches the information, estimating the interrelations and thresholds operating in this context.