Luis Muga

The Momentum Effect in Latin American Emerging Markets

We find that momentum strategies yield profits in Latin American emerging markets. Both stock type and country play a major role in explaining the momentum effect in these markets, but stock type is much more important. For risk-averse investors, winner portfolios stochastically dominate loser portfolios in these markets, implying that there are no asset-pricing models consistent with risk-averse investors that can rationalize the momentum effect. The results obtained via the bootstrap procedure without replacement also uphold this conclusion.

The momentum effect: omitted risk factors or investor behaviour? Evidence from the Spanish stock market

In this paper we use generally applicable non-parametric methods in an attempt to sort out the possible sources of momentum in stock markets (behavioural theories or omitted risk factors). Specifically, we present the results of bootstrap analysis and stochastic dominance tests for the Spanish stock market. Our results from the bootstrap analysis are found to depend on the resampling method used (with or without replacement). Nevertheless, the various stochastic dominance techniques applied lead us to the same conclusion, namely that the winner portfolio stochastically dominates the loser portfolio, which is not consistent with the general asset-pricing models developed for risk-averse investors. This promotes interest in analysing theories that relax the unbounded rationality assumptions that support many of the classical asset-pricing models.

The Effect of US Holidays on the European Markets: When the Cat's Away…

type=main xml:lang=en> This paper presents evidence of the existence of a return effect on European stock markets coinciding with New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) holidays, which is particularly marked after positive closing returns on the NYSE the previous day. The effect is large enough to be exploited by trading index futures. This anomaly cannot be explained by seasonal effects, such as the day of the week effect, the January effect or the pre-holiday effect, nor is it consistent with behavioural finance models that predict positive correlation between trading volume and returns. However, examination of factors such as information volume or investor mix provides a reasonable explanation.

New Economy Firms and Momentum

This article evaluates how “new economy” stocks may contribute to the momentum effect. Our results reveal that, by virtue of their distinct characteristics, these assets are more likely to generate momentum returns, and thus to increase the concentration of momentum traders. The combination of these two factors makes the momentum effect stronger in the new economy than in other industries.

The Stock Market Crisis and Momentum: Some Evidence for the Spanish Stock Market During the 1990s

In this article, we test the momentum effect in the Spanish stock market during the 1990s. Though there is evidence of momentum, it disappears after the 1997 crisis. While momentum profits are associated with both size and turnover effects, neither of these factors is a determinant in explaining the momentum effect. The turn of the year effect also lacks sufficient explanatory power to account either for the appearance or disappearance of this effect. An important role is played in this puzzle by the winner portfolio, particularly when it is constructed from small, high turnover stocks. Analysis of the characteristics and evolution of this portfolio may, therefore, help to explain the momentum effect.

Persistence in Mutual Funds in Latin American Emerging Markets The Case of Mexico

We find persistence in mutual fund performance both over consecutive time periods and in a multi-period setting. There is significant spread, persisting for at least two or three years, between the portfolio with funds from the top past return quintile and those from the bottom past return quintile. This spread remains unexplained by conventional risk factors. Finally, investors are observed to use information on persistence, since a significant positive relationship is shown to exist between fund flows and past returns, though this is a convex relationship, which is weaker in the region of bad returns.

Game, Set and Match: The Favorite-Long Shot Bias in Tennis Betting Exchanges

ABSTRACT We test for the existence of Favourite-Longshot Bias (FLB) in tennis betting exchanges. Despite these being order-driven markets, with no direct participation from bookmakers, we have found very similar results to those obtained by Lahvička (2014) for bookmakers’ betting markets: the bias is stronger in matches between lower-ranked players, in later round matches and in high profile tournaments. This suggests that bookmakers’ adjustments to respond to informed betting are not the main driver of FLB. The varying magnitude of the bias across different types of event in the main market also weakens arguments linking FLB to gamblers’ risk preferences, and suggests the need to consider the microstructure features of the market together with the cognitive biases highlighted in the behavioural finance literature.

Is default risk the hidden factor in momentum returns? Some empirical results

type=main xml:id=acfi12021-abs-0001 xml:lang=en> This paper analyzes the role of default risk in the momentum effect focusing on data from four developed European stock markets (France, Germany, Spain and the United Kingdom). Using a market-based measure of default risk, we show that it is not the hidden factor behind this effect. While the loser portfolio is characterized by high default risk, small size, high book-to-market and illiquidity, characterization of the winner portfolio is somewhat more complex. Given that the momentum strategy is the return differential between the winners and the losers, factors such as the stock market cycle or the evolution of momentum portfolios against their reference point make momentum profits difficult to forecast.

Es el efecto momentum exclusivo de empresas insolventes

RESUMEN El artículo analiza el papel del riesgo de insolvencia en la explicación del efecto momentum. De acuerdo con la evidencia reciente, se ha encontrado que el efecto momentum es mayor entre las empresas con alto nivel de insolvencia. Sin embargo, las carteras neutrales al riesgo de insolvencia muestran rentabilidades similares a las carteras de momentum ordinarias, por lo que no podemos concluir que los beneficios de las estrategias de momentum obedezcan a una compensación por el riesgo de insolvencia. Por último, aunque el riesgo de insolvencia es una característica importante de las carteras de momentum, no es la única característica relevante puesto que hemos detectado efecto momentum significativo en empresas de pequeño tamaño independientemente de su nivel de insolvencia.

Market penetration strategies and the fee–performance relationship: the case of Spanish money mutual funds

This article shows that market penetration strategies are common practice during the product introduction stage in the money mutual funds in Spain. During this stage there is no relation between fees and performance because this strategy is optimal. In order to analyse this relationship during the other stages of the product life cycle, funds under three years old were omitted from the analysis. Among the remaining funds, those with the highest fees are found to present a higher gross return than the low-fee funds, although the difference is not statistically significant. Nevertheless, in terms of net returns, low-fee funds are observed to stochastically dominate high-fee funds for any risk-averse investor. These findings hold for any managerial skill level or segmentation by the mutual fund family type.