Luís Palma

From local monitoring to a broad-scale viability assessment: a case study for the Bonelli's Eagle in western Europe

Population viability analysis (PVA) has become a basic tool of current conservation practice. However, if not accounted for properly, the uncertainties inherent to PVA predictions can decrease the reliability of this type of analysis. In the present study, we performed a PVA of the whole western European population (France, Portugal, and Spain) of the endangered Bonellis Eagle (Aquila fasciata), in which we thoroughly explored the consequences of uncertainty in population processes and parameters on PVA predictions. First, we estimated key vital rates (survival, fertility, recruitment, and dispersal rates) using monitoring, ringing, and bibliographic data from the period 1990-2009 from 12 populations found throughout the studied geographic range. Second, we evaluated the uncertainty about model structure (i.e., the assumed processes that govern individual fates and population dynamics) by comparing the observed growth rates of the studied populations with model predictions for the same period. Third, using the model structures suggested in the previous step, we assessed the viability of both the local populations and the overall population. Finally, we analyzed the effects of model and parameter uncertainty on PVA predictions. Our results strongly support the idea that all local populations in western Europe belong to a single, spatially structured population operating as a source- sink system, whereby the populations in the south of the Iberian Peninsula act as sources and, thanks to dispersal, sustain all other local populations, which would otherwise decline. Predictions regarding population dynamics varied considerably, and models assuming more constrained dispersal predicted more pessimistic population trends than models assuming greater dispersal. Model predictions accounting for parameter uncertainty revealed a marked increase in the risk of population declines over the next 50 years. Sensitivity analyses indicated that adult and pre-adult survival are the chief vital rates regulating these populations, and thus, the conservation efforts aimed at improving these survival rates should be strengthened in order to guarantee the long-term viability of the European populations of this endangered species. Overall, the study provides a framework for the implementation of multi-site PVAs and highlights the importance of dispersal processes in shaping the population dynamics of long-lived birds distributed across heterogeneous landscapes.

Application of indicator kriging to the complementary use of bioindicators at three trophic levels.

The use of biological indicators is widespread in environmental monitoring, although it has long been recognised that each bioindicator is generally associated with a range of potential limitations and shortcomings. To circumvent this problem, this study adopted the complementary use of bioindicators representing different trophic levels and providing different type of information, in an innovative approach to integrate knowledge and to estimate the overall health state of ecosystems. The approach is illustrated using mercury contamination in primary producers (mosses), primary consumers (domestic pigeons and red-legged partridges) and top predators (Bonellis eagles) in southern Portugal. Indicator kriging geostatistics was used to identify the areas where mercury concentration was higher than the median for each species, and to produce an index that combines mercury contamination across trophic levels. Spatial patterns of mercury contamination were consistent across species. The combined index provided a new level of information useful in incorporating measures of overall environmental contamination into pollution studies.

Limitations of methods to test density‐dependent fecundity hypothesis

1. Two main hypotheses are usually invoked to explain density dependence in fecundity: the habitat heterogeneity hypothesis (HHH) and the individual adjustment hypothesis (IAH). Although simple methods have been proposed to discriminate between the two hypotheses, their adequacy was tested for only a limited set of real and model populations. 2. In a computer simulation study based on a stochastic territory-based approach, Ferrer, Newton & Casado (2006, Journal of Animal Ecology, 75, 111-117) argued that a strong negative relationship between mean fecundity and its skewness in stable or increasing populations provides critical support for HHH, as this relationship should be lacking under IAH. A negative relationship between mean fecundity and its coefficient of variation (CV) was predicted under both hypotheses, although with a lower slope under IAH. 3. We used a comparable simulation approach, with model populations parameterized from an increasing Bonellis eagle Hieraaetus fasciatus population (1992-2006), to show that both HHH and IAH can produce indistinguishable relationships between mean fecundity and both its CV and its skewness. 4. Strong negative correlations between the mean and both its CV and its skewness can emerge as statistical artifacts under biologically plausible assumptions, and so they may be largely inadequate to infer mechanisms underlying density dependence in demographic parameters.

Changes in intrapopulation resource use patterns of an endangered raptor in response to a disease‐mediated crash in prey abundance

1. A long-standing question in ecology is how natural populations respond to a changing environment. Emergent optimal foraging theory-based models for individual variation go beyond the population level and predict how its individuals would respond to disturbances that produce changes in resource availability. 2. Evaluating variations in resource use patterns at the intrapopulation level in wild populations under changing environmental conditions would allow to further advance in the research on foraging ecology and evolution by gaining a better idea of the underlying mechanisms explaining trophic diversity. 3. In this study, we use a large spatio-temporal scale data set (western continental Europe, 1968-2006) on the diet of Bonellis Eagle Aquila fasciata breeding pairs to analyse the predator trophic responses at the intrapopulation level to a prey population crash. In particular, we borrow metrics from studies on network structure and intrapopulation variation to understand how an emerging infectious disease [the rabbit haemorrhagic disease (RHD)] that caused the density of the eagles primary prey (rabbit Oryctolagus cuniculus) to dramatically drop across Europe impacted on resource use patterns of this endangered raptor. 4. Following the major RHD outbreak, substantial changes in Bonellis Eagles diet diversity and organisation patterns at the intrapopulation level took place. Dietary variation among breeding pairs was larger after than before the outbreak. Before RHD, there were no clusters of pairs with similar diets, but significant clustering emerged after RHD. Moreover, diets at the pair level presented a nested pattern before RHD, but not after. 5. Here, we reveal how intrapopulation patterns of resource use can quantitatively and qualitatively vary, given drastic changes in resource availability. 6. For the first time, we show that a pathogen of a prey species can indirectly impact the intrapopulation patterns of resource use of an endangered predator.

Diet of Breeding Ospreys in the Cape Verde Archipelago, Northwestern Africa

Abstract We studied the diet of breeding Ospreys (Pandion haliaetus) in the Cape Verde archipelago during 2006, using prey remains recovered at 21 nests and perches on the islands of São Vicente, Santiago, Santa Luzia, Boavista, Branco, and Raso. We identified a total of 1264 individual fish prey items of 35 species. Diet was dominated (>80%) by only six fish species, including Trachinotus ovatus, Exocoetus volitans, Aulostomus strigosus, Sparisoma cretense, Sardinella maderensis, and Tylosurus acus. Dominant prey species varied among islands, but diet similarity was greater between nearby islands. Pelagic species were consumed most frequently (>60%) in Boavista and Santa Luzia, whereas demersal reef fish dominated (>50%) in the other islands. The fish consumed were generally large, though there was wide variation in estimated length (20.7–62.2 cm) and weight (49–1117 g). A comparison of Osprey diet with Cape Verde fisheries suggested that the potential for conflict is low, due to minimal overlap in the primary species caught. Changes in marine productivity associated with the ongoing moderate warming of the Canary Current System may represent a threat, though there is considerable uncertainty about the type and magnitude of these effects. Monitoring of Osprey numbers, breeding success, and diet is required to detect any changes associated with availability of food sources, and such monitoring may also provide a relatively simple and inexpensive method to track long-term changes in littoral fish assemblages.

The role of conservative versus innovative nesting behavior on the 25-year population expansion of an avian predator.

Abstract Species ranges often change in relation to multiple environmental and demographic factors. Innovative behaviors may affect these changes by facilitating the use of novel habitats, although this idea has been little explored. Here, we investigate the importance of behavior during range change, using a 25‐year population expansion of Bonellis eagle in southern Portugal. This unique population is almost exclusively tree nesting, while all other populations in western Europe are predominantly cliff nesting. During 1991–2014, we surveyed nest sites and estimated the year when each breeding territory was established. We approximated the boundaries of 84 territories using Dirichlet tessellation and mapped topography, land cover, and the density of human infrastructures in buffers (250, 500, and 1,000 m) around nest and random sites. We then compared environmental conditions at matching nest and random sites within territories using conditional logistic regression, and used quantile regression to estimate trends in nesting habitats in relation to the year of territory establishment. Most nests (>85%, n = 197) were in eucalypts, maritime pines, and cork oaks. Nest sites were farther from the nests of neighboring territories than random points, and they were in areas with higher terrain roughness, lower cover by agricultural and built‐up areas, and lower road and powerline densities. Nesting habitat selection varied little with year of territory establishment, although nesting in eucalypts increased, while cliff nesting and cork oak nesting, and terrain roughness declined. Our results suggest that the observed expansion of Bonellis eagles was facilitated by the tree nesting behavior, which allowed the colonization of areas without cliffs. However, all but a very few breeding pairs settled in habitats comparable to those of the initial population nucleus, suggesting that after an initial trigger possibly facilitated by tree nesting, the habitat selection remained largely conservative. Overall, our study supports recent calls to incorporate information on behavior for understanding and predicting species range shifts.