Luke O'Connor

Quantification of frequency-dependent genetic architectures and action of negative selection in 25 UK Biobank traits

Understanding the role of rare variants is important in elucidating the genetic basis of human diseases and complex traits. It is widely believed that negative selection can cause rare variants to have larger per-allele effect sizes than common variants. Here, we develop a method to estimate the minor allele frequency (MAF) dependence of SNP effect sizes. We use a model in which per-allele effect sizes have variance proportional to [p(1−p)]α, where p is the MAF and negative values of α imply larger effect sizes for rare variants. We estimate α by maximizing its profile likelihood in a linear mixed model framework using imputed genotypes, including rare variants (MAF >0.07%). We applied this method to 25 UK Biobank diseases and complex traits (N = 113,851). All traits produced negative α estimates with 20 significantly negative, implying larger rare variant effect sizes. The inferred best-fit distribution of true α values across traits had mean −0.38 (s.e. 0.02) and standard deviation 0.08 (s.e. 0.03), with statistically significant heterogeneity across traits (P = 0.0014). Despite larger rare variant effect sizes, we show that for most traits analyzed, rare variants (MAF <1%) explain less than 10% of total SNP-heritability. Using evolutionary modeling and forward simulations, we validated the α model of MAF-dependent trait effects and estimated the level of coupling between fitness effects and trait effects. Based on this analysis an average genome-wide negative selection coefficient on the order of 10−4 or stronger is necessary to explain the α values that we inferred.

Estimating the proportion of disease heritability mediated by gene expression levels

Disease risk variants identified by GWAS are predominantly noncoding, suggesting that gene regulation plays an important role. eQTL studies in unaffected individuals are often used to link disease-associated variants with the genes they regulate, relying on the hypothesis that noncoding regulatory effects are mediated by steady-state expression levels. To test this hypothesis, we developed a method to estimate the proportion of disease heritability mediated by the cis-genetic component of assayed gene expression levels. The method, gene expression co-score regression (GECS regression), relies on the idea that, for a gene whose expression level affects a phenotype, SNPs with similar effects on the expression of that gene will have similar phenotypic effects. In order to distinguish directional effects mediated by gene expression from non-directional pleiotropic or tagging effects, GECS regression operates on pairs of cis SNPs in linkage equilibrium, regressing pairwise products of disease effect sizes on products of cis-eQTL effect sizes. We verified that GECS regression produces robust estimates of mediated effects in simulations. We applied the method to eQTL data in 44 tissues from the GTEx consortium (average NeQTL = 158 samples) in conjunction with GWAS summary statistics for 30 diseases and complex traits (average NGWAS = 88K) with low pairwise genetic correlation, estimating the proportion of SNP-heritability mediated by the cis-genetic component of assayed gene expression in the union of the 44 tissues. The mean estimate was 0.21 (s.e. = 0.01) across 30 traits, with a significantly positive estimate (p < 0.001) for every trait. Thus, assayed gene expression in bulk tissues mediates a statistically significant but modest proportion of disease heritability, motivating the development of additional assays to capture regulatory effects and the use of our method to estimate how much disease heritability they mediate.

Quantification of genetic components of population differentiation in UK Biobank traits reveals signals of polygenic selection

The genetic architecture of most human complex traits is highly polygenic, motivating efforts to detect polygenic selection involving a large number of loci. In contrast to previous work relying on top GWAS loci, we developed a method that uses genome-wide association statistics and linkage disequilibrium patterns to estimate the genome-wide genetic component of population differentiation of a complex trait along a continuous gradient, enabling powerful inference of polygenic selection. We analyzed 43 UK Biobank traits and focused on PC1 and North-South and East-West birth coordinates across 337K unrelated British-ancestry samples, for which our method produced close to unbiased estimates of genetic components of population differentiation and high power to detect polygenic selection in simulations across different trait architectures. For PC1, we identified signals of polygenic selection for height (74.5±16.7% of 9.3% total correlation with PC1 attributable to genome-wide genetic effects; P = 8.4×10−6) and red hair pigmentation (95.9±24.7% of total correlation with PC1 attributable to genome-wide genetic effects; P = 1.1×10−4); the bulk of the signal remained when removing genome-wide significant loci, even though red hair pigmentation includes loci of large effect. We also detected polygenic selection for height, systolic blood pressure, BMI and basal metabolic rate along North-South birth coordinate, and height and systolic blood pressure along East-West birth coordinate. Our method detects polygenic selection in modern human populations with very subtle population structure and elucidates the relative contributions of genetic and non-genetic components of trait population differences.

Genes with high network connectivity are enriched for disease heritability

Recent studies have highlighted the role of gene networks in disease biology. To formally assess this, we constructed a broad set of pathway, network, and pathway+network annotations and applied stratified LD score regression to 42 independent diseases and complex traits (average N=323K) to identify enriched annotations. First, we constructed annotations from 18,119 biological pathways, including 100kb windows around each gene. We identified 156 pathway-trait pairs whose disease enrichment was statistically significant (FDR < 5%) after conditioning on all genes and on annotations from the baseline-LD model, a stringent step that greatly reduced the number of pathways detected; most of the significant pathway-trait pairs were previously unreported. Next, for each of four published gene networks, we constructed probabilistic annotations based on network connectivity using closeness centrality, a measure of how close a gene is to other genes in the network. For each gene network, the network connectivity annotation was strongly significantly enriched. Surprisingly, the enrichments were fully explained by excess overlap between network annotations and regulatory annotations from the baseline-LD model, validating the informativeness of the baseline-LD model and emphasizing the importance of accounting for regulatory annotations in gene network analyses. Finally, for each of the 156 enriched pathway-trait pairs, for each of the four gene networks, we constructed pathway+network annotations by annotating genes with high network connectivity to the input pathway. For each gene network, these pathway+network annotations were strongly significantly enriched for the corresponding traits. Once again, the enrichments were largely explained by the baseline-LD model. In conclusion, gene network connectivity is highly informative for disease architectures, but the information in gene networks may be subsumed by regulatory annotations, such that accounting for known annotations is critical to robust inference of biological mechanisms.

Polygenicity of complex traits is explained by negative selection

Complex traits and common disease are highly polygenic: thousands of common variants are causal, and their effect sizes are almost always small. Polygenicity could be explained by negative selection, which constrains common-variant effect sizes and may reshape their distribution across the genome. We refer to this phenomenon as flattening, as genetic signal is flattened relative to the underlying biology. We introduce a mathematical definition of polygenicity, the effective number of associated SNPs, and a robust statistical method to estimate it. This definition of polygenicity differs from the number of causal SNPs, a standard definition; it depends strongly on SNPs with large effects. In analyses of 33 complex traits (average N=361k), we determined that common variants are ∼4x more polygenic than low-frequency variants, consistent with pervasive flattening. Moreover, functionally important regions of the genome have increased polygenicity in proportion to their increased heritability, implying that heritability enrichment reflects differences in the number of associations rather than their magnitude (which is constrained by selection). We conclude that negative selection constrains the genetic signal of biologically important regions and genes, reshaping genetic architecture.

Leveraging molecular QTL to understand the genetic architecture of diseases and complex traits

There is increasing evidence that many GWAS risk loci are molecular QTL for gene ex-pression (eQTL), histone modification (hQTL), splicing (sQTL), and/or DNA methylation (meQTL). Here, we introduce a new set of functional annotations based on causal posterior prob-abilities (CPP) of fine-mapped molecular cis-QTL, using data from the GTEx and BLUEPRINT consortia. We show that these annotations are very strongly enriched for disease heritability across 41 independent diseases and complex traits (average N = 320K): 5.84x for GTEx eQTL, and 5.44x for eQTL, 4.27-4.28x for hQTL (H3K27ac and H3K4me1), 3.61x for sQTL and 2.81x for meQTL in BLUEPRINT (all P ≤ 1.39e-10), far higher than enrichments obtained using stan-dard functional annotations that include all significant molecular cis-QTL (1.17-1.80x). eQTL annotations that were obtained by meta-analyzing all 44 GTEx tissues generally performed best, but tissue-specific blood eQTL annotations produced stronger enrichments for autoimmune dis-eases and blood cell traits and tissue-specific brain eQTL annotations produced stronger enrich-ments for brain-related diseases and traits, despite high cis-genetic correlations of eQTL effect sizes across tissues. Notably, eQTL annotations restricted to loss-of-function intolerant genes from ExAC were even more strongly enriched for disease heritability (17.09x; vs. 5.84x for all genes; P = 4.90e-17 for difference). All molecular QTL except sQTL remained significantly enriched for disease heritability in a joint analysis conditioned on each other and on a broad set of functional annotations from previous studies, implying that each of these annotations is uniquely informative for disease and complex trait architectures.

Functional partitioning of local and distal gene expression regulation in multiple human tissues

Studies of the genetics of gene expression have served as a key tool for linking genetic variants to phenotypes. Large-scale eQTL mapping studies have identified a large number of local eQTLs, but the molecular mechanism of how genetic variants regulate expression is still unclear, particularly for distal eQTLs, which these studies are not well-powered to detect. In this study, we use a heritability partitioning approach to dissect the functional components of gene regulation. We make use of an existing method, stratified LD score regression, that leverages all variants (not just those that pass stringent significance thresholds) to partition heritability across functional categories, and we extend this method to partition local and distal gene expression heritability in 15 human tissues. The top enriched functional categories in local regulation of peripheral blood gene expression included super enhancers (5.18x), coding regions (3.73x), conserved regions (2.33x) and four histone marks (p<3x10-7 for all enrichments); local enrichments were similar across the 15 tissues. We also observed substantial enrichments for distal regulation of peripheral blood gene expression: super enhancers (1.91x), coding regions (4.47x), conserved regions (4.51x) and two histone marks (p<3x10-7 for all enrichments). Analyses of the genetic correlation of gene expression across tissues showed that local gene expression regulation is largely shared across tissues, but distal gene expression regulation is highly tissue-specific. Our results elucidate the functional components of the genetic architecture of local and distal gene expression regulation.