M. Alvioli

Improving predictive power of physically based rainfall-induced shallow landslide models: a probabilistic approach

Distributed models to forecast the spatial and temporal occurrence of rainfall-induced shallow landslides are based on deterministic laws. These models extend spatially the static stability models adopted in geotechnical engineering, and adopt an infinite-slope geometry to balance the resisting and the driving forces acting on the sliding mass. An infiltration model is used to determine how rainfall changes pore-water conditions, modulating the local stability/instability conditions. A problem with the operation of the existing models lays in the difficulty in obtaining accurate values for the several variables that describe the material properties of the slopes. The problem is particularly severe when the models are applied over large areas, for which sufficient information on the geotechnical and hydrological conditions of the slopes is not generally available. To help solve the problem, we propose a probabilistic Monte Carlo approach to the distributed modeling of rainfall-induced shallow landslides. For the purpose, we have modified the Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability Analysis (TRIGRS) code. The new code (TRIGRS-P) adopts a probabilistic approach to compute, on a cell-by-cell basis, transient pore-pressure changes and related changes in the factor of safety due to rainfall infiltration. Infiltration is modeled using analytical solutions of partial differential equations describing one-dimensional vertical flow in isotropic, homogeneous materials. Both saturated and unsaturated soil conditions can be considered. TRIGRS-P copes with the natural variability inherent to the mechanical and hydrological properties of the slope materials by allowing values of the TRIGRS model input parameters to be sampled randomly from a given probability distribution. [..]

Color fluctuation effects in proton–nucleus collisions

Color fluctuations in hadron–hadron collisions are responsible for the presence of inelastic diffraction and lead to distinctive differences between the Gribov picture of high energy scattering and the low energy Glauber picture. We find that color fluctuations give a larger contribution to the fluctuations of the number of wounded nucleons than the fluctuations of the number of nucleons at a given impact parameter. The two contributions for the impact parameter averaged fluctuations are comparable. As a result, standard procedures for selecting peripheral (central) collisions lead to selection of configurations in the projectile which interact with smaller (larger) than average strength. We suggest that studies of pA collisions with a hard trigger may allow to observe effects of color fluctuations.

Parallelization of the TRIGRS model for rainfall-induced landslides using the message passing interface

We describe a parallel implementation of TRIGRS, the Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability Model for the timing and distribution of rainfall-induced shallow landslides. We have parallelized the four time-demanding execution modes of TRIGRS, namely both the saturated and unsaturated model with finite and infinite soil depth options, within the Message Passing Interface framework. In addition to new features of the code, we outline details of the parallel implementation and show the performance gain with respect to the serial code. Results are obtained both on commercial hardware and on a high-performance multi-node machine, showing the different limits of applicability of the new code. We also discuss the implications for the application of the model on large-scale areas and as a tool for real-time landslide hazard monitoring. TRIGRS is a widely used model for the calculation of the timing and location of occurrence of rainfall triggered shallow landslides.We present a fully parallel version of the code using MPI.The software was tested both on commercial hardware and high-performance machines, showing substantial reduction of the computing time.The new software allows simulations on very large areas and/or multiple parametric simulations in a short time.

A Monte Carlo generator of nucleon configurations in complex nuclei including nucleon–nucleon correlations

We developed a Monte Carlo event generator for production of nucleon configurations in complex nuclei consistently including effects of nucleon–nucleon (NN) correlations. Our approach is based on the Metropolis search for configurations satisfying essential constraints imposed by short- and long-range NN correlations, guided by the findings of realistic calculations of one- and two-body densities for medium-heavy nuclei. The produced event generator can be used for Monte Carlo (MC) studies of pA and AA collisions. We perform several tests of consistency of the code and comparison with previous models, in the case of high energy proton–nucleus scattering on an event-by-event basis, using nucleus configurations produced by our code and Glauber multiple scattering theory both for the uncorrelated and the correlated configurations; fluctuations of the average number of collisions are shown to be affected considerably by the introduction of NN correlations in the target nucleus. We also use the generator to estimate maximal possible gluon nuclear shadowing in a simple geometric model.

Nucleon momentum distributions, their spin-isospin dependence, and short-range correlations

The nucleon momentum distribution nA(k) for A=2, 3, 4, 16, and 40 nuclei is systematically analyzed in terms of wave functions resulting from advanced solutions of the nonrelativistic Schrodinger equation, obtained within different many-body approaches based upon different realistic bare nucleon-nucleon (NN) interactions featuring similar short-range repulsion and tensor interactions. Particular attention is paid to the separation of the momentum distributions into the mean-field and short-range correlation (SRC) contributions. It is shown that although at high values of the momentum k different approaches lead to some quantitative differences, these do not hinder the general conclusion that the high-momentum behavior (k≳1.5–2 fm−1) of all nuclei considered are very similar, exhibiting the well-known scaling behavior with the mass number A, independently of the used many-body approach and the details of the bare NN interaction. To analyze and understand the frequently addressed question concerning the relationships between the nucleus, nA(k), and the deuteron, nD(k), momentum distributions, the spin (S)-isospin (T) structure of few-nucleon systems and complex nuclei is analyzed in terms of realistic NN interactions and many-body approaches. To this end, the number of NN pairs in a given (ST) state, viz., (ST)=(10), (00), (01), and (11), and the contribution of these states to the nucleon momentum distributions are calculated. It is shown that, apart from the (00) state, which has very small effects, all other spin-isospin states contribute to the momentum distribution in a wide range of momenta. It is shown that for all nuclei considered the momentum distributions in the states T=0 and T=1 exhibit at k≳1.5–2 fm−1 very similar behaviors, which represents strong evidence of the A-independent character of SRCs. The ratio nA(k)/nD(k) is analyzed in detail, stressing that in the SRC region it always increases with the momentum and the origin of such an increase is discussed and elucidated. The relationships between the one- and two-body momentum distributions, considered in a previous paper, are discussed and clarified, pointing out the relevant role played by the center-of-mass motion of a correlated pair in the (10) state. Eventually, the values of the the probability of high-momentum components in nuclei and the per nucleon probability a2 of deuteronlike configurations in nuclei are calculated, and the relationship of the present approach with the many-body methods based upon low-momentum effective interactions is briefly discussed.

Evidence for x-dependent proton color fluctuations in pA collisions at the LHC

We argue that the pattern of the deviation from the Glauber approximation prediction for the centrality dependence of the rate of forward jet production observed in pA collisions at the LHC provides the first experimental evidence that parton configurations in the projectile proton containing a parton with large

Initial state anisotropies and their uncertainties in ultrarelativistic heavy-ion collisions from the Monte Carlo Glauber model

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Revealing “flickering” of the interaction strength in p A collisions at the CERN LHC

interact with a nuclear target with a significantly smaller than average cross section and have smaller than average size. We implement the effects of fluctuations of the interaction strength and, using the ATLAS analysis of how hadron production at backward rapidities depends on the number of wounded nucleons, make quantitative predictions for the centrality dependence of the jet production rate as a function of the

Evidence for x-dependent proton color fluctuations in pA collisions at the CERN Large Hadron Collider

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Diffraction on Nuclei: Effects of Nucleon Correlations

-dependent interaction strength