M.C.M. Mourits

Financial consequences of the Dutch bluetongue serotype 8 epidemics of 2006 and 2007

This study calculates the financial consequences of the bluetongue serotype 8 (BTV8) epidemics of 2006 and 2007 in the Netherlands. We constructed a deterministic economic model that is compatible with the Dutch livestock production systems for cattle, sheep and goats. Two hundred cattle farms and 270 sheep farms were infected with BTV8 in the epidemic of 2006, whereas 30,417 cattle farms, 45,022 sheep farms and 35,278 goat farms were estimated to be infected in the epidemic of 2007. The net costs (costs minus benefits) of the BTV8 epidemic of 2006 (BT2006) was estimated at 32.4 million Euros. The net costs of the BTV8 epidemic of 2007 (BT2007) was valued at 164-175 million Euros, depending on the mortality and morbidity rates for cattle used. The losses account for 2%, 10% and 11% of the gross value of the primary production within Dutch pasture-based livestock farming that equals 1.6 billion Euros. Control measures accounted for 91% of the net costs of the BT2006, while diagnostic costs represented 7%. By contrast, for the BT2007 92% of the net costs were in the form of production losses and veterinary treatment fees, while only 6% were related to control measures. Furthermore, the control costs dropped from 29,630 in BT2006 to 10,990 in BT2007 mainly due to the costly indoor housing that was not obligatory during the BT2007 epidemic. The cattle sector suffered 88% and 85% of the net costs for the BT2006 and BT2007, respectively; the highest of all sectors.

Spatial and stochastic simulation to compare two emergency-vaccination strategies with a marker vaccine in the 1997/1998 Dutch Classical Swine Fever epidemic.

Two alternative emergency-vaccination strategies with a marker vaccine that could have been applied in the 1997/1998 Dutch Classical Swine Fever (CSF) epidemic were evaluated in a modified spatial, temporal and stochastic simulation model: InterCSF. In strategy 1, vaccination would be applied only to overcome a shortage in destruction capacities. Destruction of all pigs on vaccinated farms distinguishes this strategy from strategy 2, which assumes intra-Community trade of vaccinated pig meat. InterCSF simulates the spread of CSF between farms through local spread and three contact types. Disease spread is affected by control measures implemented through different mechanisms. Economic results were generated by a separate model that calculated the direct costs (including the vaccination costs) and consequential losses for farmers and related industries subjected to control measures. The comparison (using epidemiological and economic results) between the different emergency-vaccination strategies with an earlier simulated preventive-slaughter scenario led to some general conclusions on the Dutch CSF epidemic. Both emergency-vaccination strategies were hardly more efficient than the non-vaccination scenario. The intra-Community trade strategy (vaccination-strategy 2) was the least costly of all three scenarios.

A decision-tree to optimise control measures during the early stage of a foot-and-mouth disease epidemic.

A decision-tree was developed to support decision making on control measures during the first days after the declaration of an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). The objective of the tree was to minimise direct costs and export losses of FMD epidemics under several scenarios based on livestock and herd density in the outbreak region, the possibility of airborne spread, and the time between first infection and first detection. The starting point of the tree was an epidemiological model based on a deterministic susceptible-infectious-recovered approach. The effect of four control strategies on FMD dynamics was modelled. In addition to the standard control strategy of stamping out and culling of high-risk contact herds, strategies involving ring culling within 1 km of an infected herd, ring-vaccination within 1 km of an infected herd, and ring-vaccination within 3 km of an infected herd were assessed. An economic model converted outbreak and control effects of farming and processing operations into estimates of direct costs and export losses. Ring-vaccination is the economically optimal control strategy for densely populated livestock areas whereas ring culling is the economically optimal control strategy for sparsely populated livestock areas.

Framework for Modelling Economic Impacts of Invasive Species, Applied to Pine Wood Nematode in Europe

Background Economic impact assessment of invasive species requires integration of information on pest entry, establishment and spread, valuation of assets at risk and market consequences at large spatial scales. Here we develop such a framework and demonstrate its application to the pinewood nematode, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, which threatens the European forestry industry. The effect of spatial resolution on the assessment result is analysed. Methodology/Principal Findings Direct economic impacts resulting from wood loss are computed using partial budgeting at regional scale, while impacts on social welfare are computed by a partial equilibrium analysis of the round wood market at EU scale. Substantial impacts in terms of infested stock are expected in Portugal, Spain, Southern France, and North West Italy but not elsewhere in EU in the near future. The cumulative value of lost forestry stock over a period of 22 years (2008–2030), assuming no regulatory control measures, is estimated at €22 billion. The greatest yearly loss of stock is expected to occur in the period 2014–2019, with a peak of three billion euros in 2016, but stabilizing afterwards at 300–800 million euros/year. The reduction in social welfare follows the loss of stock with considerable delay because the yearly harvest from the forest is only 1.8%. The reduction in social welfare for the downstream round wood market is estimated at €218 million in 2030, whereby consumers incur a welfare loss of €357 million, while producers experience a €139 million increase, due to higher wood prices. The societal impact is expected to extend to well beyond the time horizon of the analysis, and long after the invasion has stopped. Conclusions/Significance Pinewood nematode has large economic consequences for the conifer forestry industry in the EU. A change in spatial resolution affected the calculated directed losses by 24%, but did not critically affect conclusions.

Economic optimization of dairy heifer management decisions

Abstract A farmer exercises control over the heifer rearing unit in two main areas: a nutritional plane of growth and the moment of insemination. The two management controls interact with biological aspects of growth thereby influencing future profitability of the dairy heifer. A dynamic programming model was developed to optimize these decisions for individual heifers, using the hierarchic Markov process (HMP) technique. HMP provides a method to model a wide variety of heifer calves, differing in age, season, body weight, reproductive status and prepubertal growth level. Under Dutch conditions the optimal rearing strategy resulted in an average calving age of 22.6 months at a calving weight of 564 kg. Faced with the scarcity of exact information on the interrelationships of rearing strategies with the productivity of the dairy replacement, the strength of this heifer model lies in the field of the sensitivity analyses by providing valuable information regarding the critical components of heifer rearing.

Multi Criteria Decision Making to evaluate control strategies of contagious animal diseases

The decision on which strategy to use in the control of contagious animal diseases involves complex trade-offs between multiple objectives. This paper describes a Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) application to illustrate its potential support to policy makers in choosing the control strategy that best meets all of the conflicting interests. The presented application focused on the evaluation of alternative strategies to control Classical Swine Fever (CSF) epidemics within the European Union (EU) according to the preferences of the European Chief Veterinary Officers (CVO). The performed analysis was centred on the three high-level objectives of epidemiology, economics and social ethics. The appraised control alternatives consisted of the EU compulsory control strategy, a pre-emptive slaughter strategy, a protective vaccination strategy and a suppressive vaccination strategy. Using averaged preference weights of the elicited CVOs, the preference ranking of the control alternatives was determined for six EU regions. The obtained results emphasized the need for EU region-specific control. Individual CVOs differed in their views on the relative importance of the various (sub)criteria by which the performance of the alternatives were judged. Nevertheless, the individual rankings of the control alternatives within a region appeared surprisingly similar. Based on the results of the described application it was concluded that the structuring feature of the MCDM technique provides a suitable tool in assisting the complex decision making process of controlling contagious animal diseases.

Review on Dog Rabies Vaccination Coverage in Africa: A Question of Dog Accessibility or Cost Recovery?

Background Rabies still poses a significant human health problem throughout most of Africa, where the majority of the human cases results from dog bites. Mass dog vaccination is considered to be the most effective method to prevent rabies in humans. Our objective was to systematically review research articles on dog rabies parenteral vaccination coverage in Africa in relation to dog accessibility and vaccination cost recovery arrangement (i.e.free of charge or owner charged). Methodology/Principal Findings A systematic literature search was made in the databases of CAB abstracts (EBSCOhost and OvidSP), Scopus, Web of Science, PubMed, Medline (EBSCOhost and OvidSP) and AJOL (African Journal Online) for peer reviewed articles on 1) rabies control, 2) dog rabies vaccination coverage and 3) dog demography in Africa. Identified articles were subsequently screened and selected using predefined selection criteria like year of publication (viz. ≥ 1990), type of study (cross sectional), objective(s) of the study (i.e. vaccination coverage rates, dog demographics and financial arrangements of vaccination costs), language of publication (English) and geographical focus (Africa). The selection process resulted in sixteen peer reviewed articles which were used to review dog demography and dog ownership status, and dog rabies vaccination coverage throughout Africa. The main review findings indicate that 1) the majority (up to 98.1%) of dogs in African countries are owned (and as such accessible), 2) puppies younger than 3 months of age constitute a considerable proportion (up to 30%) of the dog population and 3) male dogs are dominating in numbers (up to 3.6 times the female dog population). Dog rabies parenteral vaccination coverage was compared between “free of charge” and “owner charged” vaccination schemes by the technique of Meta-analysis. Results indicate that the rabies vaccination coverage following a free of charge vaccination scheme (68%) is closer to the World Health Organization recommended coverage rate (70%) than the achieved coverage rate in owner-charged dog rabies vaccination schemes (18%). Conclusions/Significance Most dogs in Africa are owned and accessible for parenteral vaccination against rabies if the campaign is performed “free of charge”.

Estimating the costs of rearing young dairy cattle in the Netherlands using a simulation model that accounts for uncertainty related to diseases.

The costs of rearing young dairy cattle are a part of the cost of the price of milk, as rearing produces the future dairy cows. As most dairy farmers are not aware of the rearing costs, the rearing of dairy replacements often does not get the attention it deserves. Calculating the distribution of the rearing costs throughout the rearing process is difficult as the costs are correlated with biological processes, such as variation in growth rate and disease uncertainty. In this study, a calf level simulation model was built to estimate the rearing costs and their distribution from 2 weeks of age until first calving in the Netherlands. The uncertainties related to calf diseases (calf scours and bovine respiratory disease) were included, in which both the probabilities of disease and the effects of diseases (growth reduction) differ at different ages. In addition, growth was modeled stochastically and in a detailed manner using a two-phase growth function. The total cost of rearing young dairy cattle was estimated as €1567 per successfully reared heifer and varied between €1423 and €1715. Reducing the age of first calving by 1 month reduced the total cost between 2.6% and 5.7%. The difference in the average cost of rearing between heifers that calved at 24 months and those calving at 30 months was €400 per heifer reared. Average rearing costs were especially influenced by labor efficiency and cost of feed. The rearing costs of a heifer that experienced disease at least once (20% of the simulated heifers) were on average €95 higher than those of healthy heifers. Hence, for an individual diseased heifer, disease costs can be rather high, while the relative contribution to the average rearing cost for a standard Dutch dairy farm is low (approx. 3%). Overall, the model developed proved to be a useful tool to investigate the total cost of rearing young dairy cattle, providing insights to dairy farmers with respect to the cost-efficiency of their own rearing management.

First-calving age and first-lactation milk production on Dutch dairy farms

Abstract Farmers attempting to reduce first-calving age (FCA) need to understand which rearing management factors influence FCA and first-lactation milk production (FLP). Reduced FCA might be associated with lower FLP. This study describes the association between herd FCA, FLP, and several herd-level health and rearing management variables and describes the association between FCA and FLP at the cow level. It uses data from a 2010 survey of 100 Dutch dairy farms about general management, colostrum and milk feeding, housing, cleanliness, healthcare, disease, and breeding. It also used available data on FCA and 305-d FLP at both cow and herd level. The associations between median FCA and median FLP of the herd and herd-level health and rearing management variables were determined using multivariate regression analysis. The median FCA was associated with minimum age of first insemination, feeding of waste milk, and the amount of milk given preweaning. The median FLP was associated with median FCA and vaccination status for bovine respiratory syncytial virus. The association between FCA and FLP (based on 8,454 heifers) was analyzed with a single-effect linear mixed model, where the dependent variable was either FCA or relative FCA (defined as the difference between FCA of the heifer and median FCA of the herd to which they belonged). Heifers having an FCA of 24mo produced, on average, 7,164kg of milk per 305d, and calving 1mo earlier gave 143kg less milk per 305d. When FCA did not deviate from the median herd FCA, heifers produced, on average, 7,272kg of milk per 305d. From the median FCA of the herd, heifers calving 1mo earlier produced 90kg of milk per 305d less, and heifers calving 1mo later produced 86kg per 305d more. This is the first study that explained FLP using relative FCA. It assumes that heifers raised within the same farm have similar development because they are similarly managed. Similar management is reflected by the median FCA of the herd, with a deviation of the heifer’s FCA from median FCA reflecting the heifer’s development relative to the herd’s average. The advantage of using relative FCA was that it accounts for between-farm differences in rearing management. It showed that earlier insemination without adjusting management to ensure sufficient development lowers FLP. An economic optimum exists between rearing costs, FCA, and FLP and, as a consequence, decisions with regard to young stock management should be made with care.

Dairy-heifer management in the Netherlands.

The objective of this study was to describe the Dutch rearing performance of dairy heifers by the evaluation of performance indices at weaning, breeding and calving. The second objective was to determine the extent to which dairy farmers use pre-set rearing targets and data monitoring for the evaluation of their rearing results. A questionnaire was sent to 3000 randomly chosen dairy cattle farmers to survey their heifer-rearing practices. Almost a third of the farmers (n=959) completed and returned the questionnaire. Of the farms responding, 29% realised an age at first calving of < or =24 months, 51% from 25 to 27 months, and 20% of > or =27 months. The farmers indicated that the average body weight after calving was within the range 525-550 kg. Average wither height class was 141-145 cm. Most farmers estimated the body-condition score of their heifers at calving to be 3-3.5. In 29% of the cases, weaning occurred at an age of < or =8 weeks, 35% at 9-10 weeks of age and 36% at > or =11 weeks of age. Most farmers (81%) commenced breeding at an age of > or =15 months. Intermediate evaluation of the rearing policy by means of performance goals and measurements was limited, and many of the reported performance indices on age and body weight were outside the range of the recommended target values. These results indicated that the common Dutch heifer-rearing management system could be improved considerably.