M. E. Splitt

Thunderstorm characteristics associated with RHESSI identified terrestrial gamma ray flashes

[1]xa0The characteristics of thunderstorms that produce terrestrial gamma-ray flashes (TGFs) observed by the Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI) are determined using climatological and meteorological data. RHESSI observed TGFs follow diurnal, seasonal, and geographic patterns that are very similar to those of thunderstorms confirming, in part, that these events are directly connected to thunderstorm activity. The TGF producing thunderstorms are shown to be closely associated with tall (ranging from 13.6 km to 17.3 km) tropical thunderstorm systems, a finding that is consistent with theoretical expectations from models of relativistic breakdown that relate the source region to the spectral signatures observed by RHESSI. Unlike sprites, there appears to be no predilection for TGFs to occur with large thunderstorm complexes. Rather, TGF producing thunderstorms are shown to range in areal extent by several orders of magnitude. Analysis of a single TGF event within the Mozambique Channel indicates an elevated mixed phase (both liquid water and ice present) level of approximately 6 km which is consistent with the climatological findings.

The rarity of terrestrial gamma‐ray flashes

We report on the first search for Terrestrial Gamma-ray Flashes (TGFs) from altitudes where they are thought to be produced. The Airborne Detector for Energetic Lightning Emissions (ADELE), an array of gamma-ray detectors, was flown near the tops of Florida thunderstorms in August/September 2009. The plane passed within 10 km horizontal distance of 1213 lightning discharges and only once detected a TGF. If these discharges had produced TGFs of the same intensity as those seen from space, every one should have been seen by ADELE. Separate and significant nondetections are established for intracloud lightning, negative cloud-to-ground lightning, and narrow bipolar events. We conclude that TGFs are not a primary triggering mechanism for lightning. We estimate the TGF-to-flash ratio to be on the order of 10^(−2) to 10^(−3) and show that TGF intensities cannot follow the well-known power-law distribution seen in earthquakes and solar flares, due to our limits on the presence of faint events.

A terrestrial gamma ray flash observed from an aircraft

On 21 August 2009, the Airborne Detector for Energetic Lightning Emissions (ADELE), an array of six gamma-ray detectors, detected a brief burst of gamma rays while flying aboard a Gulfstream V jet near two active thunderstorm cells. The duration and spectral characteristics of the event are consistent with the terrestrial gamma ray flashes (TGFs) seen by instruments in low Earth orbit. A long-duration, complex +IC flash was taking place in the nearer cell at the same time, at a distance of ~10 km from the plane. The sferics that are probably associated with this flash extended over 54 ms and included several ULF pulses corresponding to charge moment changes of up to 30 C km, this value being in the lower half of the range of sferics associated with TGFs seen from space. Monte Carlo simulations of gamma ray propagation in the Earths atmosphere show that a TGF of normal intensity would, at this distance, have produced a gamma ray signal in ADELE of approximately the size and spectrum that was actually observed. We conclude that this was the first detection of a TGF from an aircraft. We show that because of the distance, ADELEs directional and spectral capabilities could not strongly constrain the source altitude of the TGF but that such constraints would be possible for TGFs detected at closer range.

An analysis of five negative sprite‐parent discharges and their associated thunderstorm charge structures

In this study we analyze the discharge morphologies of five confirmed negative sprite-parent discharges and the associated charge structures of the thunderstorms that produced them. The negative sprite-parent lightning took place in two thunderstorms that were associated with a tropical disturbance in east central and south Florida. The first thunderstorm, which moved onshore in east central Florida, produced four of the five negative sprite-parent discharges within a period of 17xa0min, as it made landfall from the Atlantic Ocean. These negative sprite-parents were composed of bolt-from-the-blue (BFB), hybrid intracloud-negative cloud-to-ground (IC-NCG), and multicell IC-NCGs discharges. The second thunderstorm, which occurred inland over south Florida, produced a negative sprite-parent that was a probable hybrid IC-NCG discharge and two negative gigantic jets (GJs). Weakened upper positive charge with very large midlevel negative charge was inferred for both convective cells that initiated the negative-sprite-parent discharges. Our study suggests tall, intense convective systems with high wind shear at the middle to upper regions of the cloud accompanied by low cloud-to-ground (CG) flash rates promote these charge structures. The excess amount of midlevel negative charge results in these CG discharges transferring much more charge to ground than typical negative CG discharges. We find that BFB discharges prefer an asymmetrical charge structure that brings the negative leader exiting the upper positive charge region closer to the lateral positive screening charge layer. This may be the main factor in determining whether a negative leader exiting the upper positive region of the thundercloud forms a BFB or GJ.

Real-Time, High-Resolution, Space–Time Analysis of Sea Surface Temperatures from Multiple Platforms

Abstract A sea surface temperature (SST) analysis system designed to initialize short-term atmospheric model forecasts is evaluated for a month-long, relatively clear period in May 2004. System inputs include retrieved SSTs from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-East and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The GOES SSTs are processed via a sequence of quality control and bias correction steps and are then composited. The MODIS SSTs are bias corrected and checked against the background field (GOES composites) prior to assimilation. Buoy data, withheld from the analyses, are used to bias correct the MODIS and GOES SSTs and to evaluate both the composites and analyses. The bias correction improves the identification of residual cloud-contaminated MODIS SSTs. The largest analysis system improvements are obtained from the adjustments associated with the creation of the GOES composites (i.e., a reduction in buoy/GOES composite rmse on the order of 0.3°–0.5°C). A...

A Thermodynamic, kinematic and microphysical analysis of a jet and gigantic jet‐producing Florida thunderstorm

This paper presents a meteorological analysis of a storm that produced two jets, four gigantic jets (GJ), and a starter, which were observed by two radars as well as the Kennedy Space Center 4-Dimensional Lightning Surveillance System on 3 August 2013 in Central Florida. The work is the first application of dual polarization data to a jet-producing storm and is the fifth case related to a tropical disturbance. The storm environment is consistent with the moist tropical paradigm that characterizes about three quarters of the surface and aircraft observed jet and GJ events. The most unstable (MU) convective available potential energy is not unusual for Florida summer convection and is below the climatological mean for these events. An unusual speed shear layer is located near the storm equilibrium level (EL) and the storm exhibits a tilted structure with CGs displaced upshear. The turbulence, as measured by the eddy dissipation rate, is extreme near the storm top during the event window, consistent with the GJ mixing hypothesis. The individual events are collocated with, and track along, the center axis of the divergent outflow at the EL and occur within the region of the coldest GOES IR temperatures—placing the events within the overshoot. The dual polarization data indicate a deep graupel column, extending above the mixed phase layer, to a 13u2009km altitude.

Evaluation of the National Hurricane Center’s Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Probability Forecast Product

A tropical cyclone (TC) wind speed probability forecast product developed at the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) and adopted by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is evaluated for U.S. land-threatening and landfalling events over four hurricane seasons from 2004 to 2007. A key element of this work is the discernment of risk associated with the interval forecast probabilities for the three wind speed categories (i.e., 34, 50, and 64 kt, where 1 kt 5 0.52 m s 21 ). A quantitative assessment of the interval probabilities (0‐12, 12‐24, 24‐36, 36‐48, 48‐72, 72‐96, and 96‐120 h) is conducted by converting them into binary (yes‐no) forecasts using decision thresholds that are selected using the true skill statistic (TSS) and the Heidke skill score (HSS). The NHC product performs well as both the HSS and TSS demonstrate skill out to the 48‐72- and 72‐120-h intervals, respectively. Overall, reliability diagrams and bias scores indicate that the NHC product has a tendency to overforecast event likelihood for cases where the forecast probabilities exceed 60%. Specifically, the NHC product tends to overforecast for the 34-kt category but underforecasts for the 64-kt category, especially at later forecast intervals. Results for the 50-kt category are mixed but also exhibit a tendency to underforecast during the latter intervals. Decision thresholds range from 1% to 55% depending on the selection method, wind speed category, and time interval. Given that the average forecast probabilities decrease with forecast hour, small forecast probabilities may be meaningful. The HSS is recommended over the TSS for decision threshold selection because the use of the TSS introduces significant bias and the HSS is less sensitive to filtering of correct negatives.

Evaluation of Data Reduction Algorithms for Real-Time Analysis

Abstract Data reduction tools are developed and evaluated using a data analysis framework. Simple (nonadaptive) and intelligent (adaptive) thinning algorithms are applied to both synthetic and real data and the thinned datasets are ingested into an analysis system. The approach is motivated by the desire to better represent high-impact weather features (e.g., fronts, jets, cyclones, etc.) that are often poorly resolved in coarse-resolution forecast models and to efficiently generate a set of initial conditions that best describes the current state of the atmosphere. As a precursor to real-data applications, the algorithms are applied to one- and two-dimensional synthetic datasets. Information gleaned from the synthetic experiments is used to create a thinning algorithm that combines the best aspects of the intelligent methods (i.e., their ability to detect regions of interest) while reducing the impacts of spatial irregularities in the data. Both simple and intelligent thinning algorithms are then applied...

A study of thunderstorm microphysical properties and lightning flash counts associated with terrestrial gamma-ray flashes

The terrestrial gamma ray flash (TGF) is an emission of highly energetic radiation produced by or at least in close association with lightning. Previous investigations attempted to isolate the production mechanisms and production altitude(s) of TGFs as well as macrophysical characteristics, while thunderstorm microphysical characteristics were largely ignored. This investigation into thunderstorms and their hydrometeor and flash characteristics utilize temporal and spatial coincident satellite passes between the Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission to determine the bulk (or footprint) microphysical properties of two types of study events, the thunderstorm complexes which are associated with TGFs (TGF case) and the thunderstorm complexes which did not produce a TGF detected by Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager during the pass (non-TGF case). Results are presented for two different comparison methods. The first case utilizes geographic region weighted by TGF distribution, and the second is based on TGF percentage of occurrence when compared to total flash count of data set. Results show that the associated storms around the TGF location possess differences in the hydrometeor concentrations: cloud liquid water, cloud ice, precipitation water, and precipitation ice. These results take place at different levels of the atmosphere, including the mixed phase region. Additionally, results will show that TGFs are a consistent percentage of observed flashes as the rate of TGFs as a function of Lightning Imaging Sensor flash count is relatively constant.

Intelligent Data Thinning Algorithms for Satellite Imagery

This paper presents a study on intelligent data thinning for satellite data. In particular, the focus is on the thinning of the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) profiles. A direct thinning method is first applied to a synthetic data set in order to identify optimal data selection strategies. Experiments on synthetic data suggest that a thinned data set should combine homogeneous samples, and high gradient and variance of gradient samples for optimal performance. This result leads to the modification of our previously developed Density Adjustment Data Thinning algorithm (DADT). The modified DADT (mDADT) algorithm is used to thin the AIRS profiles. Experiments are conducted to compare the thinning performances of mDADT with two simple thinning algorithms. Experiment results show that mDADT algorithm performs better than the two simple thinning algorithms, especially over the regions of significant atmospheric features.