M. G. Akperov

IMILAST: A Community Effort to Intercompare Extratropical Cyclone Detection and Tracking Algorithms

The variability of results from different automated methods of detection and tracking of extratropical cyclones is assessed in order to identify uncertainties related to the choice of method. Fifteen international teams applied their own algorithms to the same dataset—the period 1989–2009 of interim European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERAInterim) data. This experiment is part of the community project Intercomparison of Mid Latitude Storm Diagnostics (IMILAST; see www.proclim.ch/imilast/index.html). The spread of results for cyclone frequency, intensity, life cycle, and track location is presented to illustrate the impact of using different methods. Globally, methods agree well for geographical distribution in large oceanic regions, interannual variability of cyclone numbers, geographical patterns of strong trends, and distribution shape for many life cycle characteristics. In contrast, the largest disparities exist for the total numbers of cyclones, the detection of wea...

IMILAST – a community effort to intercompare extratropical cyclone detection and tracking algorithms: assessing method-related uncertainties.

The variability of results from different automated methods of detection and tracking of extratropical cyclones is assessed in order to identify uncertainties related to the choice of method. Fifteen international teams applied their own algorithms to the same dataset—the period 1989–2009 of interim European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERAInterim) data. This experiment is part of the community project Intercomparison of Mid Latitude Storm Diagnostics (IMILAST; see www.proclim.ch/imilast/index.html). The spread of results for cyclone frequency, intensity, life cycle, and track location is presented to illustrate the impact of using different methods. Globally, methods agree well for geographical distribution in large oceanic regions, interannual variability of cyclone numbers, geographical patterns of strong trends, and distribution shape for many life cycle characteristics. In contrast, the largest disparities exist for the total numbers of cyclones, the detection of wea...

Are greenhouse gas signals of Northern Hemisphere winter extra-tropical cyclone activity dependent on the identification and tracking algorithm?

For Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical cyclone activity, the dependency of a potential anthropogenic climate change signal on the identification method applied is analysed. This study investigates the impact of the used algorithm on the changing signal, not the robustness of the climate change signal itself. Using one single transient AOGCM simulation as standard input for eleven state-of-the-art identification methods, the patterns of model simulated present day climatologies are found to be close to those computed from re-analysis, independent of the method applied. Although differences in the total number of cyclones identified exist, the climate change signals (IPCC SRES A1B) in the model run considered are largely similar between methods for all cyclones. Taking into account all tracks, decreasing numbers are found in the Mediterranean, the Arctic in the Barents and Greenland Seas, the mid-latitude Pacific and North America. Changing patterns are even more similar, if only the most severe systems are considered: the methods reveal a coherent statistically significant increase in frequency over the eastern North Atlantic and North Pacific. We found that the differences between the methods considered are largely due to the different role of weaker systems in the specific methods.

Tropospheric Lapse Rate and Its Relation to Surface Temperature from Reanalysis Data

Estimates of the tropospheric lapse rate γ and analysis of its relation to the surface temperature Ts in the annual cycle and interannual variability have been made using the global monthly mean data of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (1948–2001). The tropospheric lapse rate γ is about 6.1 K/km in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) as a whole and over the ocean and about 6.2 K/km over the continents. The value of γ decreases from 6.5 K/km at low latitudes to 4.5 K/km at polar latitudes. The values of dγ/dTs, the parameter of sensitivity of γ to the variation of Ts for the NH in the interannual variability, are found to be about 0.04 km−1 (0.041 km−1 for the NH as a whole, 0.042 km−1 over the ocean, and 0.038 km−1 over the continents). This corresponds to an increase in γ of approximately 0.7% when the surface temperature of the NH is increased by 1 K. Estimates of dγ/dTs vary from about 0.05 km−1 in the subtropics to 0.10 km−1 at polar latitudes. When dγ/dTs is positive, the surface and tropospheric warming means a temperature decrease above a certain critical level Hcr. The height of the level Hcr with constant temperature, which is defined by the inverse value (dγ/dTs)−1, is about 25 km for the NH as a whole, i.e., above the tropopause. In the subtropics, Hcr is about 20 km. At polar latitudes, Hcr decreases to about 10 km. Positive values of dγ/dTs characterize a positive climatic feedback through the lapse rate and indicate a general decrease in the static stability of the troposphere during global warming. Along with a general tendency of γ to increase with rising Ts, there are regional regimes with the opposite tendency, mainly over the ocean. The negative correlation of γ with Ts is found over the oceanic tropics and midlatitudes, in particular, over the oceanic belt around Antarctica.

Blockings in the Northern hemisphere and Euro-Atlantic region: Estimates of changes from reanalysis data and model simulations

430 Anomalously hot weather in summer 2010 in Euro� pean Russia was initiated by the longterm (about two months) blocking of zoned circulation in the middle� latitude troposphere in the Northern hemisphere (NH) (1, 2). Could we have expected such long block� ing? Are current models able to describe the corre� sponding processes? Will these events occur in the future? To answer these questions, we analyzed the blocking activity in the NH atmosphere using reanal� ysis data and model simulations for the twentieth and twentyfirst centuries under different scenarios of anthropogenic impact. According to the results obtained, the current climatic models make it possible to reconstruct regional anomalies related to atmo� spheric blockings and their variations. According to the observation data (3), the blocking

Probability distributions for cyclones and anticyclones from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the INM RAS climate model

Analysis of statistical characteristics of cyclones and anticyclones in the latitudinal belt between 20° and 80°N has been performed with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and simulations with the general circulation climate model of the Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (INM RAS GCCM). The model results have been analyzed for the second half of the 20th century against the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and for the 21st century with the SRES-A2 anthropogenic scenario. Overall for the 20th century, no statistically significant changes in the number of cyclones and anticyclones are obtained from either the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data [1] or from simulations with the INM RAS GCCM [2]. It is found that the total number of cyclones and anticyclones decreased in the 20th century as compared to the 21st century. It is shown that cumulative distributions of the number of cyclones and anticyclones by their intensities and areas have an exponential form from both the reanalysis data and the model simulations, although the corresponding exponents are different.

A comparative analysis of the method of extratropical cyclone identification

Three methods for identification cyclones in extratropical latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) (20°–80° L) are compared based on reanalysis data (1948–2007) for the fields of the sea level pressure (SLP). Different characteristics of extratropical cyclones, namely, their number, intensity, size, and lifetime, are analyzed. The effect of orographic effects for the identification of cyclones and their trajectories is evaluated. The characteristics of extratropical cyclones are compared based on different reanalysis data (National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), ERA-40, and ERA-INTERIM) with different spatial resolutions.

Cyclones and their possible changes in the Arctic by the end of the twenty first century from regional climate model simulations

Characteristics of cyclones (frequency, intensity and size) and their changes in the Arctic region in a warmer climate have been analyzed with the use of the HIRHAM regional climate model simulations with SRES-A1B anthropogenic scenario for the twenty first century. The focus was on cyclones for the warm (April–September) and cold (October–March) seasons. The present-day cyclonic characteristics from HIRHAM simulations are in general agreement with those from ERA–40 reanalysis data. Differences noted for the frequency of cyclones are related with different spatial resolution in the model simulations and reanalysis data. Potential future changes in cyclone characteristics at the end of the twenty first century have been analyzed. According to the model simulations, the frequency of cyclones is increasing in warm seasons and decreasing in cold seasons for a warmer climate in the twenty first century, but these changes are statistically insignificant. Noticeable changes were detected for the intensity and size of cyclones for the both seasons. Significant increase was found for the frequency of weak cyclones during cold season. Further, a general increase in the frequency of small cyclones was calculated in cold seasons, while its frequency decreases in warm seasons.

Studying Summer Season Drought in Western Russia

During the 2010 summer, a severe drought impacted Western Russia, including regions surrounding Moscow and Belgorod (about 700 km south of Moscow). The drought was accompanied by high temperatures. Moscow recorded 37.8°C (100°F) for the first time in over 130 years of record keeping. The record heat, high humidity, dry weather, and smoke from forest fires caused increased human mortality rates in the Moscow region during the summer. The excessive heat and humidity in Western Russia were the result of atmospheric blocking from June through mid-August. The NCAR-NCEP reanalyses were used to examine blocking in the Eastern European and Western Russia sector during the spring and summer seasons from 1970 to 2012. We found that drier years were correlated with stronger and more persistent blocking during the spring and summer seasons. During these years, the Moscow region was drier in the summer and Belgorod during the spring seasons. In the Moscow region, the drier summers were correlated with transitions from El Nino to La Nina, but the opposite was true in the Belgorod region. Synoptic flow regimes were then analyzed and support the contention that dry years are associated with more blocking and El Nino transitions.

Intense Arctic mesocyclones

Characteristics of polar mesoscale cyclones (PMCs) over the North European Basin are analyzed using cloud cover distribution data for 1981–1995. Special features of the annual cycle and interannual variations in characteristics of Arctic mesocyclones with a spiral and comma-shaped cloud structure are discussed. Against the background of large interannual variations, no statistically significant trends were found in the characteristics of Arctic mesocyclones over the North European Basin in the late 20th century. It is shown that the cumulative frequency distribution of PMCs is well approximated by an exponential function in a size range for Arctic mesocyclones from 50 to 400 km. The applicability of the Weibull distribution as an approximation of the PMC size distribution of the number of cyclone days is analyzed. It is shown that the correspondence between the real distribution and the Weibull distribution became worse in the 1990s than in the 1980s, especially the first half of the 1980s. Much of this was due to an increased local maximum in the 1990s in the distribution of polar mesocyclones with diameters about 400 km. This local maximum was found for all types of mesoscale vortices and for all analyzed five-year subperiods during 1981–1995. A large discrepancy between the frequency distribution functions for PMCs depending on their diameters was shown to exist for different types of Arctic mesocyclones.