M George

Acting under uncertainty : multidisciplinary conceptions

I. The Evolution of Scientific Conceptions of Uncertainty and Their Social Underpinnings.- 1. Coping with Uncertainty in Natural Science: 1200-1700.- 2. Political, Moral, and Economic Decisions and the Origins of the Mathematical Theory of Probability: The Case of Jacob Bernoullis The Art of Conjecturing.- 3. The Quantification of Uncertainty After 1700: Statistics Socially Constructed?.- 4. Uncertainty and the Conditioning of Beliefs.- 5. The Unity of Probability.- 6. Necessity, Chance, and Freedom.- II. Risk Analysis and Social Responsibility.- 7. Risk in Cultural Perspective.- 8. Statistical Hypothesis Tests and Statistical Power in Pure and Applied Science.- 9. Uncertainty in Environmental Risk Assessment.- 10. Uncertainty in Morals and Politics.- III. Learning and Acting Under Uncertainty.- 11. Re-Modeling Risk Aversion: A Comparison of Bernoullian and Rank Dependent Value Approaches.- 12. Neither Gullible Nor Unteachable Be: Signal Extraction and the Optimal Speed of Learning from Uncertain News.- 13. Rethinking Rational Expectations.- 14. Multiattribute Decision Models: Task Order and Group Effects.- IV. Coping With Extreme Forms of Uncertainty.- 15. Measuring Vague Uncertainties and Understanding Their Use in Decision Making.- 16. Quantifying Vagueness and Possibility: New Trends in Knowledge Representation.- 17. Chaos and Complexity in Economic and Financial Science.- 18. Information.

The banking and financial structure in the NAFTA countries and Chile

Preface. Part I: The Banking and Financial System of Canada: Steady Development. 1. Canadas Economy and Financial System: Recent and Prospective Developments and the Policy Issues They Pose J.F. Chant. 2. Challenges for the Further Restructuring of the Financial-Services Industry in Canada E.P. Neufeld, H. Hassanwalia. Part II: The Banking and Financial System of Chile: A Cautious Opening. 3. Financial Integration and Chiles Macroeconomic Performance J. de Gregorio. 4. Macroeconomic and Financial Policy in Chile C.L. Budnevich, O.M.M. Landerretche M. 5. The Current Debate over Changes in Chiles Bank Act E. Livacic. Part III: The Banking and Financial System of Mexico Under Stress. 6. Recovering Stability and Growth in Mexicos Economy and Financial System M.J. Schwartz. 7. Crisis Management and Institutional Change Aimed at the Prevention of Future Crises A. Diaz de Leon, J.J. Schwartz. Part IV: The Banking and Financial System of the United States Reconfigured. 8. The Political Economy of Banking and Financial Regulation in the United States R.S. Kroszner. 9. The Transformation of the U.S. Financial System: Public Policy Implications F.R. Edwards.

Regulation and supervision of financial institutions in the NAFTA countries and beyond

Preface. Part I: Sound Finance, Deposit Insurance, and Systemic Risk. 1. Sound Finance and the Wealth of Nations H.J. Blommestein, M.G. Spencer. 2. Lessons for Transitional and Developing Economies from U.S. Deposit Insurance Reform G.G. Kaufman. 3. Systemic Risk in Banking: Concept and Models M. Loretan. Part II: Global and European Approaches to the Powers and Constraints Placed on Banking and Finance Institutions. 4. International Agreements in the Area of Banking and Finance: Accomplishments and Outstanding Issues W.R. White. 5. Regional Financial Integration in Europe: A Blueprint for North America B. Hofer, G.M. von Furstenberg. Part III: International Regulatory Competition: United States and Canada. 6. Competition and Convergence of Bank Regulation in NAFTA M. Fratianni. 7. Trade in Financial Services in NAFTA: A Public Choice Approach J.C. Pattison. 8. Integration and Globalization of the Canadian and U.S. Banking Industries: A Modest Role for NAFTA? D.E. Nolle. 9. Regulatory Issues Arising from Financial Integration N. Le Pan. Part IV: U.S. Financial Reform Legislation and the Model for NAFTA. 10. The Evolving U.S. Legislative Agenda in Banking and Finance E.J. Kane. 11. Financial Conglomeration: Issues and Questions A.V. Thakor. 12. A Financial System that Strengthens Market Forces: What is Most Needed? H. Rosenblum. Part V: Reform of the Mexican Banking System and Its Regulatory, Supervisory, and Payment Relations with the United States.13. Consolidated Supervision of Cross-Border Banking Activities: Principles and Practice in the NAFTA Context M.G. Martinson. 14. Mexicos Banking Crisis: Origins, Consequences, and Countermeasures J. Gavito, et al. 15. Efficiency and Risk in Small-Value, Cross-Border Payments: The North American Case J.C. Marquardt, et al. Index.

Revaluation Pressure and New Exchange Rate Arrangements for East Asia: A Symposium

This symposium offers a selection of significant research on the renminbi and broader East Asian exchange rate policy pressures and options first presented at a 2227 May 2006 conference in Bellagio, Italy. Its venue, Villa Serbelloni, was made available by the Rockefeller Foundation. Reforms of the international monetary and financial system have been discussed there since the 1960s. As was the case then, the focus of the conference was once again on the declining international anchor functions and relations with the US dollar, but this time in and with continental East Asia, rather than Europe and Japan.

Mexico in NAFTA: Welfare-Benefit Dissipation Due to Lack of a Common Currency

Except perhaps for the lead countries of global finance that may maintain a useful degree of monetary independence from each other, joining a regional monetary union boosts financial development. It enhances liquidity and depth of financial markets through the provision of sound money used over a wide area and provides implicit insurance against macroeconomic risks. This paper shows that, for Mexico unlike Canada, macroeconomic volatility is much greater during periods when the nominal exchange rate with USD changes appreciably than when it is quasi-pegged. This finding suggests that the benefits of monetary union are greatest for emerging-market countries inside an economically integrating region. The study uses PPP-GDP data per person and per workhour from the Groningen (Netherlands) Growth and Development Centre.

Mexico in NAFTA: Welfare Dissipation Due to Lack of a Common Currency

Except perhaps for the lead countries of global finance that may maintain a useful degree of monetary independence from each other, joining a regional monetary union boosts financial development. It enhances liquidity and depth of financial markets through the provision of sound money used over a wide area and provides implicit insurance against macroeconomic risks. This paper shows that, for Mexico unlike Canada, macroeconomic volatility is much greater during periods when the nominal exchange rate with USD changes appreciably than when it is quasi-pegged. This finding suggests that the benefits of monetary union are greatest for emerging-market countries inside an economically integrating region.

Pitfalls and Opportunities in the Evaluation of Social Service Programs

The outcomes of most social-service programs are complex and subject to conflicting ethical, utilitarian, and political assessments. As a result, different elements of private and public benefits will not be recognized or weighted equally by all providers and funders. Once agreement on the intended outcome has been reached, evaluation focuses on the optimal method and provider for obtaining it. This article considers econometric and experimental designs for determining the relative effectiveness of alternative treatments or providers, including designs proposed in other contributions to this symposium.

International Yield Differentials Do Not Equal Risk Premiums

International risk premiums on low-credibility currencies are routinely measured by yield differences with otherwise comparable instruments issued in a hard currency. Such measures, while adequate for any permanent component of country-specific risk, are incorrect when applied during periods of currency and banking crisis in emerging markets. The reason is that such crises typically generate large risk-adjusted real interest-rate differentials that may be compensated by future movements in the real exchange rate. If riskless rates can differ because only asset markets can adjust immediately to the new outlook created by a crisis, the risk premium can not be equated with observed international yield spreads. Instead, an intertemporal UIP model serves to estimate both permanent and temporary components of currency risk premiums. The usefulness of the results obtained with this model is demonstrated by showing that the measure of the surge in currency risk obtained for the tequila crisis bids fair to explain financial and economic declines that actually occurred.

The Case for Monetary Union Reexamined with the Benefit of the Single Monetary Policy

A traditional OCA criterion holds that the more symmetric the shock exposure of countries, the more suited they are for currency union. According to Frankel and Rose (1998, 2002), growing correlation of the ex post income fluctuations of members also can provide endogenous justification for regional monetary union (MU) after its creation. Trade-enhancing effects of MU increase symmetry of shock exposure. But the single monetary policy of a multilateral MU in theory counteracts net disturbances to the union as a whole to the extent consistent with low inflation. This would leave mostly idiosyncratic disturbances and hence less symmetry among the national disturbance effects that remain. But recent evidence from the euro area yields results contrary to those expected.