M. Giovanna Ranalli

Nonparametric Model Calibration Estimation in Survey Sampling

Calibration is commonly used in survey sampling to include auxiliary information at the estimation stage of a population parameter. Calibrating the observation weights on population means (totals) of a set of auxiliary variables implies building weights that when applied to the auxiliaries give exactly their population mean (total). Implicitly, calibration techniques rely on a linear relation between the survey variable and the auxiliary variables. However, when auxiliary information is available for all units in the population, more complex modeling can be handled by means of model calibration; auxiliary variables are used to obtain fitted values of the survey variable for all units in the population, and estimation weights are sought to satisfy calibration constraints on the fitted values population mean, rather than on the auxiliary variables one. In this work we extend model calibration considering more general superpopulation models and use nonparametric methods to obtain the fitted values on which to calibrate. More precisely, we adopt neural network learning and local polynomial smoothing to estimate the functional relationship between the survey variable and the auxiliary variables. Under suitable regularity conditions, the proposed estimators are proven to be design consistent. The moments of the asymptotic distribution are also derived, and a consistent estimator of the variance of each distribution is then proposed. The performance of the proposed estimators for finite-size samples is investigated by means of simulation studies. An application to the assessment of the ecological conditions of streams in the mid-Atlantic highlands in the United States is also carried out.

The economic impact of cultural events:: the Umbria Jazz music festival

This paper assesses the economic impact of a cultural event on a local economy. The event analysed is the Umbria Jazz music festival, which is held annually in July in the city of Perugia in Italy. The relevance of this case study concerns the methodological problems involved in estimating the number of visitors attracted by an event characterized by numerous free concerts. In addition, through the choice of the components of expenditure and the impact analysis model, the proposed approach represents an advanced synthesis of the paths which have been developing in the literature.

Small area estimation using a nonparametric model-based direct estimator

Nonparametric regression is widely used as a method of characterizing a non-linear relationship between a variable of interest and a set of covariates. Practical application of nonparametric regression methods in the field of small area estimation is fairly recent, and has so far focussed on the use of empirical best linear unbiased prediction under a model that combines a penalized spline (p-spline) fit and random area effects. The concept of model-based direct estimation is used to develop an alternative nonparametric approach to estimation of a small area mean. The suggested estimator is a weighted average of the sample values from the area, with weights derived from a linear regression model with random area effects extended to incorporate a smooth, nonparametrically specified trend. Estimation of the mean squared error of the proposed small area estimator is also discussed. Monte Carlo simulations based on both simulated and real datasets show that the proposed model-based direct estimator and its associated mean squared error estimator perform well. They are worth considering in small area estimation applications where the underlying population regression relationships are non-linear or have a complicated functional form.

Nonparametric M-quantile regression using penalised splines

Quantile regression investigates the conditional quantile functions of a response variable in terms of a set of covariates. M-quantile regression extends this idea by a ‘quantile-like’ generalisation of regression based on influence functions. In this work, we extend it to nonparametric regression, in the sense that the M-quantile regression functions do not have to be assumed to have a certain parametric form, but can be left undefined and estimated from the data. Penalised splines are employed to estimate them. This choice makes it easy to move to bivariate smoothing and semiparametric modelling. An algorithm based on iteratively reweighted penalised least squares to actually fit the model is proposed. Quantile crossing is addressed using an a posteriori adjustment to the function fits following He [1]. Simulation studies show the finite sample properties of the proposed estimation technique.

Robust small area prediction for counts

A new semiparametric approach to model-based small area prediction for counts is proposed and used for estimating the average number of visits to physicians for Health Districts in Central Italy. The proposed small area predictor can be viewed as an outlier robust alternative to the more commonly used empirical plug-in predictor that is based on a Poisson generalized linear mixed model with Gaussian random effects. Results from the real data application and from a simulation experiment confirm that the proposed small area predictor has good robustness properties and in some cases can be more efficient than alternative small area approaches.

Calibration estimation in dual-frame surveys

Survey statisticians make use of auxiliary information to improve estimates. One important example is calibration estimation, which constructs new weights that match benchmark constraints on auxiliary variables while remaining “close” to the design weights. Multiple-frame surveys are increasingly used by statistical agencies and private organizations to reduce sampling costs and/or avoid frame undercoverage errors. Several ways of combining estimates derived from such frames have been proposed elsewhere; in this paper, we extend the calibration paradigm, previously used for single-frame surveys, to calculate the total value of a variable of interest in a dual-frame survey. Calibration is a general tool that allows to include auxiliary information from two frames. It also incorporates, as a special case, certain dual-frame estimators that have been proposed previously. The theoretical properties of our class of estimators are derived and discussed, and simulation studies conducted to compare the efficiency of the procedure, using different sets of auxiliary variables. Finally, the proposed methodology is applied to real data obtained from the Barometer of Culture of Andalusia survey.

A hierarchical latent class model for predicting disability small area counts from survey data

This article considers the estimation of the number of severely disabled people using data from the Italian survey on Health Conditions and Appeal to Medicare. Disability is indirectly measured using a set of categorical items, which survey a set of functions concerning the ability of a person to accomplish everyday tasks. Latent Class Models can be employed to classify the population according to different levels of a latent variable connected with disability. The survey, however, is designed to provide reliable estimates at the level of Administrative Regions (NUTS2 level), while local authorities are interested in quantifying the amount of population that belongs to each latent class at a sub-regional level. Therefore, small area estimation techniques should be used. The challenge of the present application is that the variable of interest is not directly observed. Adopting a full Bayesian approach, we base small area estimation on a Latent Class model in which the probability of belonging to each latent class changes with covariates and the influence of age is learnt from the data using penalized splines. Deimmler-Reisch bases are shown to improve speed and mixing of MCMC chains used to simulate posteriors.

Nonparametric Methods in Survey Sampling

Nonparametric techniques have only recently been employed in the estimation procedure of finite population parameters in a model-assisted framework. When complete auxiliary information is available, the use of more flexible methods to predict the value taken by the survey variable in non sampled units allows building more efficient estimators. Here we consider a general class of nonparametric regression estimators of a finite population mean. Four different nonparametric techniques that can handle multivariate auxiliary information are employed, their properties stated and their performance compared by means of a simulation study.

Functional exploratory data analysis for high-resolution measurements of urban particulate matter

In this work we propose the use of functional data analysis (FDA) to deal with a very large dataset of atmospheric aerosol size distribution resolved in both space and time. Data come from a mobile measurement platform in the town of Perugia (Central Italy). An OPC (Optical Particle Counter) is integrated on a cabin of the Minimetrò, an urban transportation system, that moves along a monorail on a line transect of the town. The OPC takes a sample of air every six seconds and counts the number of particles of urban aerosols with a diameter between 0.28 μm and 10 μm and classifies such particles into 21 size bins according to their diameter. Here, we adopt a 2D functional data representation for each of the 21 spatiotemporal series. In fact, space is unidimensional since it is measured as the distance on the monorail from the base station of the Minimetrò. FDA allows for a reduction of the dimensionality of each dataset and accounts for the high space-time resolution of the data. Functional cluster analysis is then performed to search for similarities among the 21 size channels in terms of their spatiotemporal pattern. Results provide a good classification of the 21 size bins into a relatively small number of groups (between three and four) according to the season of the year. Groups including coarser particles have more similar patterns, while those including finer particles show a more different behavior according to the period of the year. Such features are consistent with the physics of atmospheric aerosol and the highlighted patterns provide a very useful ground for prospective model-based studies.

Multilevel Latent Class Models for Evaluation of Long-term Care Facilities

The Region Umbria has conducted a survey on elderly patients living in long-term care facilities since the year 2000. Repeated measurements of items on health conditions are taken for classifying care facilities to allocate resources (RUG system). We wish to evaluate the performance of the nursing homes in terms of some aspects of health condition and quality of life of patients. To this end, a Multilevel Latent Class Model with covariates is employed. It allows for modeling a latent trait hidden behind a set of items, also in the presence of a nested error data structure coming from repeated measurements. Eleven items, surveying cognitive status, activities of daily living, behavior and decubitus ulcers, are used to measure the latent variable related to health condition and quality of life. The probability of belonging to ordinal latent classes is modeled in terms of available covariates.