M. Hare

Progress in integrated assessment and modelling

Environmental processes have been modelled for decades. However. the need for integrated assessment and modeling (IAM) has,town as the extent and severity of environmental problems in the 21st Century worsens. The scale of IAM is not restricted to the global level as in climate change models, but includes local and regional models of environmental problems. This paper discusses various definitions of IAM and identifies five different types of integration that Lire needed for the effective solution of environmental problems. The future is then depicted in the form of two brief scenarios: one optimistic and one pessimistic. The current state of IAM is then briefly reviewed. The issues of complexity and validation in IAM are recognised as more complex than in traditional disciplinary approaches. Communication is identified as a central issue both internally among team members and externally with decision-makers. stakeholders and other scientists. Finally it is concluded that the process of integrated assessment and modelling is considered as important as the product for any particular project. By learning to work together and recognise the contribution of all team members and participants, it is believed that we will have a strong scientific and social basis to address the environmental problems of the 21st Century.

Further towards a taxonomy of agent-based simulation models in environmental management

Agent-based simulation (ABS) is being increasingly used in environmental management. However, the efficient and effective use of ABS for environmental modelling is hindered by the fact that there is no fixed and clear definition of what an ABS is or even what an agent should be. Terminology has proliferated and definitions of agency have been drawn from an application area (Distributed Artificial Intelligence) which is not wholly relevant to the task of environmental simulation. This situation leaves modellers with little practical support for clearly identifying ABS techniques and how to implement them.This paper is intended to provide an overview of agent-based simulation in environmental modelling so that modellers can link their requirements to the current state of the art in the techniques that are currently used to satisfy them. Terminology is clarified and then simplified to two key existing terms, agent-based modelling and multi-agent simulation, which represent subtly different approaches to ABS, reflected in their respective artificial life (A-life) and distributed artificial intelligence roots. A representative set of case studies are reviewed, from which a classification scheme is developed as a stepping-stone to developing a taxonomy. The taxonomy can then be used by modellers to match ABS techniques to their requirements.

Co-engineering Participatory Water Management Processes: Theory and Insights from Australian and Bulgarian Interventions

Broad-scale, multi-governance level, participatory water management processes intended to aid collective decision making and learning are rarely initiated, designed, implemented, and managed by one person. These processes mostly emerge from some form of collective planning and organization activities because of the stakes, time, and budgets involved in their implementation. Despite the potential importance of these collective processes for managing complex water-related social-ecological systems, little research focusing on the project teams that design and organize participatory water management processes has ever been undertaken. We have begun to fill this gap by introducing and outlining the concept of a co-engineering process and examining how it impacts the processes and outcomes of participatory water management. We used a hybrid form of intervention research in two broad-scale, multi-governance level, participatory water management processes in Australia and Bulgaria to build insights into these co- engineering processes. We examined how divergent objectives and conflict in the project teams were negotiated, and the impacts of this co-engineering on the participatory water management processes. These investigations showed: (1) that language barriers may aid, rather than hinder, the process of stakeholder appropriation, collective learning and skills transferal related to the design and implementation of participatory water management processes; and (2) that diversity in co-engineering groups, if managed positively through collaborative work and integrative negotiations, can present opportunities and not just challenges for achieving a range of desired outcomes for participatory water management processes. A number of areas for future research on co-engineering participatory water management processes are also highlighted.

Sustainable Management of Water Resources

Experts across a wide range of specialist fields including social sciences, informatics, ecology and hydrology are brought together in this truly multidisciplinary approach to water management. They provide the reader with integrated insights into water resource management practices that underpin the three pillars of sustainable development – environment, economics and society – through a series of international case studies and theoretical frameworks.

The Potential for Integrated Assessment and Modeling to Solve Environmental Problems: Vision, Capacity, and Direction

Publisher Summary This chapter suggests that teams of researchers and partners should work together to build integrated tools to analyze and represent the known processes underway, to understand the environmental problems of the 21 st century. Environmental problems are caused by complex interactions among physical and human systems that demand analytical skills beyond those of a single discipline. Integrated assessment and modeling (IAM) is applied at the global level and at the local/regional level. The central role of human decisions and actions as drivers of environmental change is recognized in new IAM approaches. Various definitions of IAM and five different types of integration that are needed for the effective solution of environmental problems are also discussed. The fixture is then depicted in the form of two brief scenarios: one optimistic and the other pessimistic. The evolution of IAM and its current state are reviewed and examples of recent case studies are identified. Integrated assessment is introduced as a means to respond to the need for better indicators of sustainability. The issues of complexity and validation are recognized as complex. Communication is identified as a central issue, both internally among team members and externally with decision makers, stakeholders, and other scientists. Links with other research groups are recognized and points of shared interest are identified. The process of integrated assessment and modeling is considered as important as the product for any particular project.

Effects of Climate Change on Hydric Resources: Some Implications and Solutions

Among the issues that humanity currently faces and will face in the future, the scarcity of water and the onset of large-scale events linked to it – such as the increasingly frequent periods of protracted drought and heavy flooding in different regions of the world – are undoubtedly some of the most pressing. Accordingly, these conditions will have to be considered in the modeling and analysis of water supply and demand in the coming years. As the distribution and growth of the world population runs parallel both to the increasing demand for water for different uses and the potential reduction of natural resources, these are important factors that hereafter will affect the availability of the liquid for human consumption.