M.J. Soares

Using wavelets to decompose the time–frequency effects of monetary policy ☆

Central banks have different objectives in the short and long run. Governments operate simultaneously at different timescales. Many economic processes are the result of the actions of several agents, who have different term objectives. Therefore, a macroeconomic time series is a combination of components operating on different frequencies. Several questions about economic time series are connected to the understanding of the behavior of key variables at different frequencies over time, but this type of information is difficult to uncover using pure time-domain or pure frequency-domain methods.

Genomewide Linkage Analysis of Bipolar Disorder by Use of a High-Density Single-Nucleotide–Polymorphism (SNP) Genotyping Assay: A Comparison with Microsatellite Marker Assays and Finding of Significant Linkage to Chromosome 6q22

We performed a linkage analysis on 25 extended multiplex Portuguese families segregating for bipolar disorder, by use of a high-density single-nucleotide-polymorphism (SNP) genotyping assay, the GeneChip Human Mapping 10K Array (HMA10K). Of these families, 12 were used for a direct comparison of the HMA10K with the traditional 10-cM microsatellite marker set and the more dense 4-cM marker set. This comparative analysis indicated the presence of significant linkage peaks in the SNP assay in chromosomal regions characterized by poor coverage and low information content on the microsatellite assays. The HMA10K provided consistently high information and enhanced coverage throughout these regions. Across the entire genome, the HMA10K had an average information content of 0.842 with 0.21-Mb intermarker spacing. In the 12-family set, the HMA10K-based analysis detected two chromosomal regions with genomewide significant linkage on chromosomes 6q22 and 11p11; both regions had failed to meet this strict threshold with the microsatellite assays. The full 25-family collection further strengthened the findings on chromosome 6q22, achieving genomewide significance with a maximum nonparametric linkage (NPL) score of 4.20 and a maximum LOD score of 3.56 at position 125.8 Mb. In addition to this highly significant finding, several other regions of suggestive linkage have also been identified in the 25-family data set, including two regions on chromosome 2 (57 Mb, NPL = 2.98; 145 Mb, NPL = 3.09), as well as regions on chromosomes 4 (91 Mb, NPL = 2.97), 16 (20 Mb, NPL = 2.89), and 20 (60 Mb, NPL = 2.99). We conclude that at least some of the linkage peaks we have identified may have been largely undetected in previous whole-genome scans for bipolar disorder because of insufficient coverage or information content, particularly on chromosomes 6q22 and 11p11.

Business Cycle Synchronization and the Euro: a Wavelet Analysis

We use wavelet analysis to study business cycle synchronization across the EU-15 and the Euro-12 countries. Based on the wavelet transform, we propose a metric to measure and test for business cycles synchronization. Several conclusions emerge. France and Germany form the core of the Euro land, being the most synchronized countries with the rest of Europe. Portugal, Greece, Ireland and Finland do not show statistically relevant degrees of synchronization with Europe. We also show that some countries (like Spain) have a French accent, while others have a German accent (e.g., Austria). Perhaps surprisingly, we find that the French business cycle has been leading the German business cycle as well as the rest of Europe. Among the countries that may, in the future, join the Euro, the Czech Republic seems the most promising candidate.

The Continuous Wavelet Transform: Moving Beyond Uni‐ and Bivariate Analysis

A body of work using the continuous wavelet transform has been growing. We provide a self-contained summary on its most relevant theoretical results, describe how such transforms can be implemented in practice, and generalize the concept of simple coherency to partial wavelet coherency and multiple wavelet coherency, moving beyond bivariate analysis. We also describe a family of wavelets, which emerges as an alternative to the popular Morlet wavelet, the generalized Morse wavelets. A user-friendly toolbox, with examples, is attached to this paper.

Genome-wide scan in Portuguese Island families identifies 5q31-5q35 as a susceptibility locus for schizophrenia and psychosis.

Schizophrenia is a common psychiatric disorder with a complex genetic etiology. To understand the genetic basis of this syndrome in Portuguese Island populations, we performed a genome-wide scan of 29 families with schizophrenia, which identified a single region on 5q31–5q35 with strong linkage (NPL=3.09, P=0.0012 at D5S820). Empirical simulations set a genome-wide threshold of NPL=3.10 for significant linkage. Additional support for this locus in schizophrenia comes from higher-density mapping and mapping of 11 additional families. The combined set of 40 families had a peak NPL=3.28 (P=0.00066) at markers D5S2112–D5S820. These data and previous linkage findings from other investigators provide strong and consistent evidence for this genomic region as a susceptibility locus for schizophrenia. Exploratory analyses of a novel phenotype, psychosis, in families with schizophrenia and bipolar disorder detected evidence for linkage to the same markers as found in schizophrenia (peak NPL=3.03, P=0.0012 at D5S820), suggesting that this locus may be responsible for the psychotic symptoms observed in both diseases.

Sleep and behavioral/emotional problems in children: A population-based study

BACKGROUND The potential relationships between sleep-wake behaviors and emotional/disruptive problems in otherwise healthy school-aged children are unclear. METHODS A parental questionnaire was developed for the epidemiologic survey of childrens sleep and wake behavioral patterns. The questions covered a wide range of features including sleep length (school days, weekends), time to fall asleep, night awakenings, bedtime and nighttime sleep-related behaviors, daytime sleepiness, irritability, and tiredness. To assess psychiatric symptomatology, the Rutter Scale B2 was completed by teachers. In addition to the total score, sub-scores of emotional, hyperactivity, and conduct problems were obtained. The representative population sample comprised 779 children (403 girls), with an age range of 6-11 years. RESULTS Hyperactivity and conduct problems at school in boys were both associated with parental reports of bedtime resistance. Hyperactivity was also associated with longer sleep duration during weekends. Conduct and emotional problems in girls were associated with earlier bedtime during school days. Emotional problems in girls were also associated with longer sleep durations in school days and weekends. CONCLUSION Bedtime resistance was the only sleep behavior associated with either hyperactivity or conduct problems in children, and longer sleep durations appear to occur more frequently in children with both hyperactive or emotional problems. Information about good sleep hygiene at bedtime may help parents setting sleep limits.

Genome‐wide scan in Portuguese Island families implicates multiple loci in bipolar disorder: Fine mapping adds support on chromosomes 6 and 11

As part of an extensive study in the Portuguese Island population of families with multiple patients suffering from bipolar disorder and schizophrenia, we performed an initial genome‐wide scan of 16 extended families with bipolar disorder that identified three regions on chromosomes 2, 11, and 19 with genome‐wide suggestive linkage and several other regions, including chromosome 6q, also approached suggestive levels of significance. Dick et al. [2003: Am J Hum Genet 73:107–114] recently reported in a study of 250 families with bipolar disorder a maxLOD score of 3.61 near marker D6S1021 on chromosome 6q. This study replicates this finding having detected a peak NPL = 2.02 (P = 0.025) with the same marker D6S1021(104.7 Mb). Higher‐density mapping provided additional support for loci on chromosome 6 including marker D6S1021 with an NPL = 2.59 (P = 0.0068) and peaking at marker D6S1639 (125 Mb) with an NPL = 3.06 (P = 0.0019). A similar pattern was detected with higher‐density mapping of chromosome 11 with an NPL = 3.15 (P = 0.0014) at marker D11S1883 (63.1 Mb). Simulations at the density of our fine mapping data indicate that less than 1 scan out of 10 would find two such scores genome‐wide in the same scan by chance. Our findings provide additional support for a susceptibility locus for bipolar disorder on 6q, as well as, suggesting the importance of denser scans. Published 2004 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.

Perfectionism and eating behaviour in Portuguese adolescents.

OBJECTIVES The main objective was to investigate the association between perfectionism and eating behaviour in a non-clinical sample of adolescents of both genders. METHOD 997 middle and high school students completed the Portuguese versions of the child-adolescent perfectionism scale (CAPS) and of the eating attitudes test -25 (EAT-25). RESULTS In both genders, the perfectionism total score and the sociallyprescribed perfectionism (SPP) score were positive and significantly correlated with the EAT total score and with all EAT dimensions: Drive for Thinness (DT), Bulimic Related Behaviour (BRB), Social Pressure to Eat (SPE). In girls, self-oriented perfectionism (SOP) was also associated with the EAT total score and its dimensions, whereas in boys it was only associated with EAT total score and DT. In both genders SPP was a useful predictor of the EAT-25 total score and of all its dimensions. In which respects SOP, there were some gender differences showing that in boys this dimension should not be considered a predictor of eating behaviours. CONCLUSION These results confirm that high levels of perfectionism (SOP and SPP) are associated with abnormal eating behaviour in both genders.

Oil Shocks and the Euro as an Optimum Currency Area

We use wavelet analysis to study the impact of the Euro adoption on the oil price macroeconomy relation in the Euroland. We uncover evidence that the oil-macroeconomy relation changed in the past decades. We show that after the Euro adoption some countries became more similar with respect to how their macroeconomies react to oil shocks. However, we also conclude that the adoption of the common currency did not contribute to a higher degree of synchronization between Portugal, Ireland and Belgium and the rest of the countries in the Euroland. On the contrary, in these countries the macroeconomic reaction to an oil shock became more asymmetric after adopting the Euro.

Convergence of the Economic Sentiment Cycles in the Eurozone: A Time‐Frequency Analysis

In this article, wavelet tools and economic sentiment indicators are used to study the similarity and synchronization of economic cycles in the eurozone. The time‐varying and frequency‐varying patterns of business cycles synchronization are assessed and the impact of the creation of the European monetary union (EMU) in 1999 is tested. Among several results, it is found that: the EMU is associated with a significant increase in the similarity and synchronization of the economic sentiment in the eurozone; and the hard‐peg of its currency to the euro led to a comparable effect on Denmarks economic sentiment after 1999, different from what happened in the United Kingdom.