M. Kasoar

Fast and Slow Precipitation Responses to Individual Climate Forcers: A PDRMIP Multimodel Study

Precipitation is expected to respond differently to various drivers of anthropogenic climate change. We present the first results from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP), where nine global climate models have perturbed CO2, CH4, black carbon, sulfate, and solar insolation. We divide the resulting changes to global mean and regional precipitation into fast responses that scale with changes in atmospheric absorption and slow responses scaling with surface temperature change. While the overall features are broadly similar between models, we find significant regional intermodel variability, especially over land. Black carbon stands out as a component that may cause significant model diversity in predicted precipitation change. Processes linked to atmospheric absorption are less consistently modeled than those linked to top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing. We identify a number of land regions where the model ensemble consistently predicts that fast precipitation responses to climate perturbations dominate over the slow, temperature-driven responses.

PDRMIP: A Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project—Protocol and Preliminary Results

As the global temperature increases with changing climate, precipitation rates and patterns are affected through a wide range of physical mechanisms. The globally averaged intensity of extreme precipitation also changes more rapidly than the globally averaged precipitation rate. While some aspects of the regional variation in precipitation predicted by climate models appear robust, there is still a large degree of inter-model differences unaccounted for. Individual drivers of climate change initially alter the energy budget of the atmosphere leading to distinct rapid adjustments involving changes in precipitation. Differences in how these rapid adjustment processes manifest themselves within models are likely to explain a large fraction of the present model spread and needs better quantifications to improve precipitation predictions. Here, we introduce the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP), where a set of idealized experiments designed to understand the role of different climate forcing mechanisms were performed by a large set of climate models. PDRMIP focuses on understanding how precipitation changes relating to rapid adjustments and slower responses to climate forcings are represented across models. Initial results show that rapid adjustments account for large regional differences in hydrological sensitivity across multiple drivers. The PDRMIP results are expected to dramatically improve our understanding of the causes of the present diversity in future climate projections.

Source apportionment of size-fractionated particles during the 2013 Asian Youth Games and the 2014 Youth Olympic Games in Nanjing, China

In this study, samples of size-fractionated particulate matter were collected continuously using a 9-size interval cascade impactor at an urban site in Nanjing, before, during and after the Asian Youth Games (AYG), from July to September of 2013, and the Youth Olympic Games (YOG), from July to September of 2014. First, elemental concentrations, water-soluble ions including Cl-, NO3-, SO42-, NH4+, K+, Na+ and Ca2+, organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC) were analysed. Then, the source apportionment of the fine and coarse particulate matter was carried out using the chemical mass balance (CMB) model. The average PM10 concentrations were 90.4±20.0μg/m3 during the 2013 AYG and 70.6±25.3μg/m3 during the 2014 YOG. For PM2.1, the average concentrations were 50.0±12.8μg/m3 in 2013 and 34.6±17.0μg/m3 in 2014. Investigations showed that the average concentrations of particles declined significantly from 2013 to 2014, and concentrations were at the lowest levels during the events. Results indicated that OC, EC, sulfate and crustal elements have significant monthly and size-based variations. The major components, including crustal elements, water-soluble ions and carbonaceous aerosol accounted for 75.3-91.9% of the total particulate mass concentrations during the sampling periods. Fugitive dust, coal combustion dust, iron dust, construction dust, soil dust, vehicle exhaust, secondary aerosols and sea salt have been classified as the main emissions in Nanjing. The source apportionment results indicate that the emissions from fugitive dust, which was the most abundance emission source during the 2013 AYG, contributed to 23.0% of the total particle mass. However, fugitive dust decreased to 6.2% of the total particle mass during the 2014 YOG. Construction dust (14.7% versus 7.8% for the AYG and the YOG, respectively) and secondary sulfate aerosol (9.3% versus 8.0% for the AYG and the YOG, respectively) showed the same trend as fugitive dust, suggesting that the mitigation measures of controlling particles from the paved roads, construction and industry worked more efficiently during the YOG.

Characterization of major natural and anthropogenic source profiles for size-fractionated PM in Yangtze River Delta

Samples of size-fractionated particles were collected from local natural and anthropogenic sources in two industrial cities in the Yangtze River Delta, using either grab/resuspension sampling or ambient air sampling. The chemical characterizations of twenty one source profiles were obtained, based on elements (Al, As, Ca, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, K, Mg, Mn, Na, Pb and Zn), soluble ions (Cl-, NO3-, SO42-, NH4+, K+, Na+ and Ca2+) and carbonaceous material such as organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC). The profiles vary between sources from different areas, as well as between different particulate sizes. Results show that particulate matter that originated as soil dust, construction dust and fugitive dust is typically rich in crustal elements, especially Al, Ca, Fe and Mg, while the presence of calcium is found to be a hallmark of the cement industry and ceramic industry. Dominant compositions of particles from coal-fired power plants are variable, with OC ranging from 2.2%-27%. Garbage-fired power plant and cooking smoke particulate emissions are enriched in Na, Cl-, OC and K due to the presence of salty and organic matter. The element Fe, ranging from 6.1% to 26.0%, is found to be an important marker for steel production dust. Vehicle exhaust profiles are characterized by high abundances of OC (12.1%-53.6%) and EC (3.9%-20.0%). Burning of straw results in K (1.6%-7.2%) and OC (12.4%-25.9%) being the dominant composition. Preliminary work has also been done on establishing local industrial profiles such as textile, ceramic and electroplating industries. This work could be used in receptor model studies to estimate the contributions of different sources to the size-fractionated particulate matter in the Yangtze River Delta.

Rapid Adjustments Cause Weak Surface Temperature Response to Increased Black Carbon Concentrations

We investigate the climate response to increased concentrations of black carbon (BC), as part of the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). A tenfold increase in BC is simulated by 9 global coupled-climate models, producing a model-median effective radiative forcing (ERF) of 0.82 (ranging from 0.41 to 2.91) Wm-2, and a warming of 0.67 (0.16 to 1.66) K globally and 1.24 (0.26 to 4.31) K in the Arctic. A strong positive instantaneous radiative forcing (median of 2.10 Wm-2 based on five of the models) is countered by negative rapid adjustments (-0.64 Wm-2 for the same five models), which dampen the total surface temperature signal. Unlike other drivers of climate change, the response of temperature and cloud profiles to the BC forcing is dominated by rapid adjustments. Low-level cloud amounts increase for all models, while higher-level clouds are diminished. The rapid temperature response is particularly strong above 400 hPa, where increased atmospheric stabilization and reduced cloud cover contrast the response pattern of the other drivers. In conclusion, we find that this substantial increase in BC concentrations does have considerable impacts on important aspects of the climate system. However, some of these effects tend to offset one another, leaving a relatively small global warming of 0.47 K per Wm-2 - about 20 % lower than the response to a doubling of CO2. Translating the tenfold increase in BC to the present-day impact of anthropogenic BC (given the emissions used in this work) would leave a warming of merely 0.07 K.

A PDRMIP multimodel study on the impacts of regional aerosol forcings on global and regional precipitation

Atmospheric aerosols such as sulfate and black carbon (BC) generate inhomogeneous radiative forcing and can affect precipitation in distinct ways compared to greenhouse gases (GHGs). Their regional effects on the atmospheric energy budget and circulation can be important for understanding and predicting global and regional precipitation changes, which act on top of the background GHG-induced hydrological changes. Under the framework of the Precipitation Driver Response Model Inter-comparison Project (PDRMIP), multiple models were used for the first time to simulate the influence of regional (Asian and European) sulfate and BC forcing on global and regional precipitation. The results show that, as in the case of global aerosol forcing, the global fast precipitation response to regional aerosol forcing scales with global atmospheric absorption, and the slow precipitation response scales with global surface temperature response. Asian sulphate aerosols appear to be a stronger driver of global temperature and precipitation change compared to European aerosols, but when the responses are normalised by unit radiative forcing or by aerosol burden change, the picture reverses, with European aerosols being more efficient in driving global change. The global apparent hydrological sensitivities of these regional forcing experiments are again consistent with those for corresponding global aerosol forcings found in the literature. However, the regional responses and regional apparent hydrological sensitivities do not align with the corresponding global values. Through a holistic approach involving analysis of the energy budget combined with exploring changes in atmospheric dynamics, we provide a framework for explaining the global and regional precipitation responses to regional aerosol forcing.

Weak hydrological sensitivity to temperature change over land, independent of climate forcing

We present the global and regional hydrological sensitivity (HS) to surface temperature changes, for perturbations to CO2, CH4, sulfate and black carbon concentrations, and solar irradiance. Based on results from ten climate models, we show how modeled global mean precipitation increases by 2–3% per kelvin of global mean surface warming, independent of driver, when the effects of rapid adjustments are removed. Previously reported differences in response between drivers are therefore mainly ascribable to rapid atmospheric adjustment processes. All models show a sharp contrast in behavior over land and over ocean, with a strong surface temperature-driven (slow) ocean HS of 3–5%/K, while the slow land HS is only 0–2%/K. Separating the response into convective and large-scale cloud processes, we find larger inter-model differences, in particular over land regions. Large-scale precipitation changes are most relevant at high latitudes, while the equatorial HS is dominated by convective precipitation changes. Black carbon stands out as the driver with the largest inter-model slow HS variability, and also the strongest contrast between a weak land and strong sea response. We identify a particular need for model investigations and observational constraints on convective precipitation in the Arctic, and large-scale precipitation around the Equator.Climate change: Global warming increases rainfall most over oceansGlobal warming leads to more rain – but little of the change occurs over land. An international team of researchers, led by Bjørn H. Samset at the Norwegian CICERO Center for Climate Research, used ten global climate models to study how precipitation changes when just one factor in the climate system was allowed to change at a time. While models tend to give very different predictions of future rainfall for realistic scenarios, changes due solely to greenhouse gases, aerosols, or the amount of incoming sunlight, give clearer results. Overall, the amount of rain over oceans increases by 4% per degree Celsius, no matter what caused the surface warming. Over land, the increase is only 1–2%. This difference helps explain why observed rainfall changes over land have so far been modest.

Carbon dioxide physiological forcing dominates projected Eastern Amazonian drying

Future projections of east Amazonian precipitation indicate drying, but they are uncertain and poorly understood. In this study we analyse the Amazonian precipitation response to individual atmospheric forcings using a number of global climate models. Black carbon is found to drive reduced precipitation over the Amazon due to temperature-driven circulation changes, but the magnitude is uncertain. CO2 drives reductions in precipitation concentrated in the east, mainly due to a robustly negative, but highly variable in magnitude, fast response. We find that the physiological effect of CO2 on plant stomata is the dominant driver of the fast response due to reduced latent heating, and also contributes to the large model spread. Using a simple model we show that CO2 physiological effects dominate future multi-model mean precipitation projections over the Amazon. However, in individual models temperature-driven changes can be large, but due to little agreement, they largely cancel out in the model-mean.

Similar spatial patterns of global climate response to aerosols from different regions

Anthropogenic aerosol forcing is spatially heterogeneous, mostly localised around industrialised regions like North America, Europe, East and South Asia. Emission reductions in each of these regions will force the climate in different locations, which could have diverse impacts on regional and global climate. Here, we show that removing sulphur dioxide (SO2) emissions from any of these northern-hemisphere regions in a global composition-climate model results in significant warming across the hemisphere, regardless of the emission region. Although the temperature response to these regionally localised forcings varies considerably in magnitude depending on the emission region, it shows a preferred spatial pattern independent of the location of the forcing. Using empirical orthogonal function analysis, we show that the structure of the response is tied to existing modes of internal climate variability in the model. This has implications for assessing impacts of emission reduction policies, and our understanding of how climate responds to heterogeneous forcings.Climate modelling: aerosols from different regions drive global temperature patternsAerosol pollution from different industrialised regions produces similar, hemisphere-wide effects on climate. Matthew Kasoar and colleagues from Imperial College London, UK, used a state-of-the-art climate model to look at how sulphate aerosol pollution affects the global climate, depending on whether the pollution is emitted from North America, Europe, South Asia, or East Asia. Simulations showed that although the pollution scatters incoming sunlight mainly around the emission region, the effect this has on temperatures extends around the world, with a consistent pattern of temperature changes which were particularly strong over the Arctic, North America, and Western Siberia. However, some regions, like the US and Europe, were more able to produce large temperature changes for a given emission change. This information could be used to estimate global impacts of different air pollution mitigation strategies.

Sensible heat has significantly affected the global hydrological cycle over the historical period

Globally, latent heating associated with a change in precipitation is balanced by changes to atmospheric radiative cooling and sensible heat fluxes. Both components can be altered by climate forcing mechanisms and through climate feedbacks, but the impacts of climate forcing and feedbacks on sensible heat fluxes have received much less attention. Here we show, using a range of climate modelling results, that changes in sensible heat are the dominant contributor to the present global-mean precipitation change since preindustrial time, because the radiative impact of forcings and feedbacks approximately compensate. The model results show a dissimilar influence on sensible heat and precipitation from various drivers of climate change. Due to its strong atmospheric absorption, black carbon is found to influence the sensible heat very differently compared to other aerosols and greenhouse gases. Our results indicate that this is likely caused by differences in the impact on the lower tropospheric stability.Precipitation changes are strongly linked to the Earth’s energy budget. Here the authors show that changes in sensible heat are the dominant contributor to the present global-mean precipitation change since pre-industrial time.