M. Kennedy Hall

Prediction of In-hospital Mortality in Emergency Department Patients With Sepsis: A Local Big Data-Driven, Machine Learning Approach.

OBJECTIVES Predictive analytics in emergency care has mostly been limited to the use of clinical decision rules (CDRs) in the form of simple heuristics and scoring systems. In the development of CDRs, limitations in analytic methods and concerns with usability have generally constrained models to a preselected small set of variables judged to be clinically relevant and to rules that are easily calculated. Furthermore, CDRs frequently suffer from questions of generalizability, take years to develop, and lack the ability to be updated as new information becomes available. Newer analytic and machine learning techniques capable of harnessing the large number of variables that are already available through electronic health records (EHRs) may better predict patient outcomes and facilitate automation and deployment within clinical decision support systems. In this proof-of-concept study, a local, big data-driven, machine learning approach is compared to existing CDRs and traditional analytic methods using the prediction of sepsis in-hospital mortality as the use case. METHODS This was a retrospective study of adult ED visits admitted to the hospital meeting criteria for sepsis from October 2013 to October 2014. Sepsis was defined as meeting criteria for systemic inflammatory response syndrome with an infectious admitting diagnosis in the ED. ED visits were randomly partitioned into an 80%/20% split for training and validation. A random forest model (machine learning approach) was constructed using over 500 clinical variables from data available within the EHRs of four hospitals to predict in-hospital mortality. The machine learning prediction model was then compared to a classification and regression tree (CART) model, logistic regression model, and previously developed prediction tools on the validation data set using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and chi-square statistics. RESULTS There were 5,278 visits among 4,676 unique patients who met criteria for sepsis. Of the 4,222 patients in the training group, 210 (5.0%) died during hospitalization, and of the 1,056 patients in the validation group, 50 (4.7%) died during hospitalization. The AUCs with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the different models were as follows: random forest model, 0.86 (95% CI = 0.82 to 0.90); CART model, 0.69 (95% CI = 0.62 to 0.77); logistic regression model, 0.76 (95% CI = 0.69 to 0.82); CURB-65, 0.73 (95% CI = 0.67 to 0.80); MEDS, 0.71 (95% CI = 0.63 to 0.77); and mREMS, 0.72 (95% CI = 0.65 to 0.79). The random forest model AUC was statistically different from all other models (p ≤ 0.003 for all comparisons). CONCLUSIONS In this proof-of-concept study, a local big data-driven, machine learning approach outperformed existing CDRs as well as traditional analytic techniques for predicting in-hospital mortality of ED patients with sepsis. Future research should prospectively evaluate the effectiveness of this approach and whether it translates into improved clinical outcomes for high-risk sepsis patients. The methods developed serve as an example of a new model for predictive analytics in emergency care that can be automated, applied to other clinical outcomes of interest, and deployed in EHRs to enable locally relevant clinical predictions.

Improving emergency physician performance using audit and feedback: a systematic review

BACKGROUND Audit and feedback can decrease variation and improve the quality of care in a variety of health care settings. There is a growing literature on audit and feedback in the emergency department (ED) setting. Because most studies have been small and not focused on a single clinical process, systematic assessment could determine the effectiveness of audit and feedback interventions in the ED and which specific characteristics improve the quality of emergency care. OBJECTIVE The objective of the study is to assess the effect of audit and feedback on emergency physician performance and identify features critical to success. METHODS We adhered to the PRISMA statement to conduct a systematic review of the literature from January 1994 to January 2014 related to audit and feedback of physicians in the ED. We searched Medline, EMBASE, PsycINFO, and PubMed databases. We included studies that were conducted in the ED and reported quantitative outcomes with interventions using both audit and feedback. For included studies, 2 reviewers independently assessed methodological quality using the validated Downs and Black checklist for nonrandomized studies. Treatment effect and heterogeneity were to be reported via meta-analysis and the I2 inconsistency index. RESULTS The search yielded 4332 articles, all of which underwent title review; 780 abstracts and 131 full-text articles were reviewed. Of these, 24 studies met inclusion criteria with an average Downs and Black score of 15.6 of 30 (range, 6-22). Improved performance was reported in 23 of the 24 studies. Six studies reported sufficient outcome data to conduct summary analysis. Pooled data from studies that included 41,124 patients yielded an average treatment effect among physicians of 36% (SD, 16%) with high heterogeneity (I2=83%). CONCLUSION The literature on audit and feedback in the ED reports positive results for interventions across numerous clinical conditions but without standardized reporting sufficient for meta-analysis. Characteristics of audit and feedback interventions that were used in a majority of studies were feedback that targeted errors of omission and that was explicit with measurable instruction and a plan for change delivered in the clinical setting greater than 1 week after the audited performance using a combination of media and types at both the individual and group levels. Future work should use standardized reporting to identify the specific aspects of audit or feedback that drive effectiveness in the ED.

Despite Federal Legislation, Shortages Of Drugs Used In Acute Care Settings Remain Persistent And Prolonged

Early evidence suggests that provisions of the Food and Drug Administration Safety and Innovation Act of 2012 are associated with reductions in the total number of new national drug shortages. However, drugs frequently used in acute unscheduled care such as the care delivered in emergency departments may be increasingly affected by shortages. Our estimates, based on reported national drug shortages from 2001 to 2014 collected by the University of Utahs Drug Information Service, show that although the number of new annual shortages has decreased since the acts passage, half of all drug shortages in the study period involved acute care drugs. Shortages affecting acute care drugs became increasingly frequent and prolonged compared with non-acute care drugs (median duration of 242 versus 173 days, respectively). These results suggest that the drug supply for many acutely and critically ill patients in the United States remains vulnerable despite federal efforts.

The Student's Dilemma, Liver Edition: Incorporating the Sonographer's Language into Clinical Anatomy Education.

Anatomy students are often confused by multiple names ascribed to the same structure by different clinical disciplines. Increasingly, sonography is being incorporated into clinical anatomical education, but ultrasound textbooks often use names unfamiliar to the anatomist. Confusion is worsened when ultrasound names ascribed to the same structure actually refer to different structures. Consider the sonographic main lobar fissure (MLF). The sonographic MLF is a hyper‐echoic landmark used by sonographers of the right upper quadrant. Found in approximately 70% of people, there is little consensus on what the sonographic MLF is anatomically. This structure appears to be related to the main portal fissure (aka principal plane of the liver or principal hepatic fissure), initially described by anatomists and surgeons as in intrahepatic division along the middle hepatic vein which in essence divides the territories of the left and right hepatic arteries and biliary systems. By exploring the relationship between the main portal fissure and the sonographic MLF in cadaveric livers ex vivo, the data suggest the sonographic MLF is actually an extrahepatic structure that parallels the rim of the main portal fissure. The authors recommend that this structure be renamed the “sonographic cystic pedicle,” which includes the cystic duct and ensheathing fat and blood vessels. In the context of the redefined underlying anatomy, the absence of the sonographic cystic pedicle due to anatomic variation may serve an important clinical role in predicting complications from difficult laparoscopic cholecystectomies and is deserving of future study. Anat Sci Educ 8: 283–288.

Emergency Department Diagnostic Imaging: The Journey to Quality

Priorities in health care delivery are shifting, with a greater focus on enhancing value, incentivizing quality, and advancing population health. While measurement of quality in emergency department (ED) care is still in its infancy, performance measures are increasingly being linked to reimbursement to encourage the delivery of high-value care. With such changes, there will be growing oversight of diagnostic imaging in all clinical settings, including the ED. Here, the authors examine the current state of quality measurement as it pertains to ED imaging. The authors review relevant policies and discuss both the associated challenges and the facilitators of using quality measures to help optimize ED imaging. Understanding such factors will help ensure the delivery of diagnostic imaging that is appropriate, high-quality, and patient-centered.

Use of Point-of-Care Ultrasound in the Emergency Department Insights From the 2012 Medicare National Payment Data Set

Point‐of‐care ultrasound is a valuable tool with potential to expedite diagnoses and improve patient outcomes in the emergency department. However, little is known about national patterns of adoption. This study examined nationwide point‐of‐care ultrasound reimbursement among emergency medicine (EM) practitioners and examined regional and practitioner level variations.

Impact of point-of-care ultrasonography on ED time to disposition for patients with nontraumatic shock

STUDY OBJECTIVE Nontraumatic shock in the emergency department (ED) has multiple causes and carries in-hospital mortality approaching 20%, underscoring the need for prompt diagnosis and treatment. Diagnostic ultrasonography at the point of care is one method that may improve the ability of ED physicians to quickly diagnose and treat. This study assesses the effect of the use and timing of point-of-care (POC) ultrasonography on time to disposition request. METHODS This retrospective study across 4 Connecticut EDs compared propensity score matched shock patients who did and did not receive POC ultrasonography. Two propensity score matches were performed: the first using covariates of time to disposition from previous literature and the second using 25 novel covariates identified from electronic health records using machine learning to reduce variable selection biases. RESULTS A total of 3834 unique patients presented with shock during an 18-month period, and 703 (18.3%) patients received POC ultrasonography. Mean time to disposition for all patients was 255.4minutes (interquartile range, 163.8). After propensity score matching, patients had a mean reduction of 26.7minutes (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.8-58.3) in time to disposition when POC ultrasonography was performed within 1hour of ED arrival and a lesser reduction of 16.7minutes (95% CI, -2.8 to 35.5) when POC ultrasonography was performed within 2hours. There was no evidence of reduction in time to disposition when ultrasonography was performed after 2hours (16.7minutes; 95% CI, -14.3 to 29.9). Propensity score models using machine learning-selected variables yielded similar results. CONCLUSION Performance of POC ultrasonography likely improves time to disposition when performed early on ED patients with shock.

Imaging Strategies for Suspected Acute Cranial Shunt Failure: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

Comparative cost-effectiveness of cranial CT, fsMRI, and POCUS measurement of ONSD for acute shunt failure from the perspective of a health care organization. OBJECTIVES: We compared cost-effectiveness of cranial computed tomography (CT), fast sequence magnetic resonance imaging (fsMRI), and ultrasonography measurement of optic nerve sheath diameter (ONSD) for suspected acute shunt failure from the perspective of a health care organization. METHODS: We modeled 4 diagnostic imaging strategies: (1) CT scan, (2) fsMRI, (3) screening ONSD by using point of care ultrasound (POCUS) first, combined with CT, and (4) screening ONSD by using POCUS first, combined with fsMRI. All patients received an initial plain radiographic shunt series (SS). Short- and long-term costs of radiation-induced cancer were assessed with a Markov model. Effectiveness was measured as quality-adjusted life-years. Utilities and inputs for clinical variables were obtained from published literature. Sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate the effects of parameter uncertainty. RESULTS: At a previous probability of shunt failure of 30%, a screening POCUS in patients with a normal SS was the most cost-effective. For children with abnormal SS or ONSD measurement, fsMRI was the preferred option over CT. Performing fsMRI on all patients would cost

Derivation of decision rules to predict clinically important outcomes in acute flank pain patients

27 627 to gain 1 additional quality-adjusted life-year compared with CT. An imaging pathway that involves CT alone was dominated by ONSD and fsMRI because it was more expensive and less effective. CONCLUSIONS: In children with low pretest probability of cranial shunt failure, an ultrasonographic measurement of ONSD is the preferred initial screening test. fsMRI is the more cost-effective, definitive imaging test when compared with cranial CT.

State of the National Emergency Department Workforce: Who Provides Care Where?

Objective: Routine CT for patients with acute flank pain has not been shown to improve patient outcomes, and it may unnecessarily expose patients to radiation and increased costs. As preliminary steps toward the development of a guideline for selective CT, we sought to determine the prevalence of clinically important outcomes in patients with acute flank pain and derive preliminary decision rules. Methods: We analyzed data from a randomized trial of CT vs. ultrasonography for patients with acute flank pain from 15 EDs between October 2011 and February 2013. Clinically important outcomes were defined as inpatient admission for ureteral stones and alternative diagnoses. Clinically important stones were defined as stones requiring urologic intervention. We sought to derive highly sensitive decision rules for both outcomes. Results: Of 2759 participants, 236 (8.6%) had a clinically important outcome and 143 (5.2%) had a clinically important stone. A CDR including anemia (hemoglobin < 13.2 g/dl), WBC count > 11 000/&mgr;l, age > 42 years, and the absence of CVAT had a sensitivity of 97.9% (95% CI 94.8–99.2%) and specificity of 18.7% (95% 17.2–20.2%) for clinically important outcome. A CDR including hydronephrosis, prior history of stone, and WBC count < 8300/&mgr;l had a sensitivity of 98.6% (95% CI 94.5–99.7%) and specificity of 26.0% (95% 24.2–27.7%) for clinically important stone. Conclusions: We determined the prevalence of clinically important outcomes in patients with acute flank pain, and derived preliminary high sensitivity CDRs that predict them. Validation of CDRs with similar test characteristics would require prospective enrollment of 2100 patients.