M. Kohler

The Convective Storm Initiation Project

The Convective Storm Initiation Project (CSIP) is an international project to understand precisely where, when, and how convective clouds form and develop into showers in the mainly maritime environment of southern England. A major aim of CSIP is to compare the results of the very high resolution Met Office weather forecasting model with detailed observations of the early stages of convective clouds and to use the newly gained understanding to improve the predictions of the model. A large array of ground-based instruments plus two instrumented aircraft, from the U.K. National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) and the German Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK), Karlsruhe, were deployed in southern England, over an area centered on the meteorological radars at Chilbolton, during the summers of 2004 and 2005. In addition to a variety ofground-based remote-sensing instruments, numerous rawinsondes were released at one- to two-hourly intervals from six closely spaced sites. The Met Office weather radar network and Meteosat satellite imagery were used to provide context for the observations made by the instruments deployed during CSIP. This article presents an overview of the CSIP field campaign and examples from CSIP of the types of convective initiation phenomena that are typical in the United Kingdom. It shows the way in which certain kinds of observational data are able to reveal these phenomena and gives an explanation of how the analyses of data from the field campaign will be used in the development of an improved very high resolution NWP model for operational use.

Tropical and subtropical cloud transitions in weather and climate prediction models: the GCSS/WGNE Pacific cross-section intercomparison (GPCI)

AbstractA model evaluation approach is proposed in which weather and climate prediction models are analyzed along a Pacific Ocean cross section, from the stratocumulus regions off the coast of California, across the shallow convection dominated trade winds, to the deep convection regions of the ITCZ—the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Cloud System Study/Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (GCSS/WGNE) Pacific Cross-Section Intercomparison (GPCI). The main goal of GPCI is to evaluate and help understand and improve the representation of tropical and subtropical cloud processes in weather and climate prediction models. In this paper, a detailed analysis of cloud regime transitions along the cross section from the subtropics to the tropics for the season June–July–August of 1998 is presented. This GPCI study confirms many of the typical weather and climate prediction model problems in the representation of clouds: underestimation of clouds in the stratocumulus regime by most models with the co...

Evaluation of forecasted southeast Pacific stratocumulus in the NCAR, GFDL, and ECMWF models.

Abstract Forecasts of southeast Pacific stratocumulus at 20°S and 85°W during the East Pacific Investigation of Climate (EPIC) cruise of October 2001 are examined with the ECMWF model, the Atmospheric Model (AM) from GFDL, the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) from NCAR, and the CAM with a revised atmospheric boundary layer formulation from the University of Washington (CAM-UW). The forecasts are initialized from ECMWF analyses and each model is run for 3–5 days to determine the differences with the EPIC field observations. Observations during the EPIC cruise show a well-mixed boundary layer under a sharp inversion. The inversion height and the cloud layer have a strong and regular diurnal cycle. A key problem common to the models is that the planetary boundary layer (PBL) depth is too shallow when compared to EPIC observations. However, it is suggested that improved PBL depths are achieved with more physically realistic PBL schemes: at one end, CAM uses a dry and surface-driven PBL scheme and produces a v...

Intercomparison and interpretation of single-column model simulations of a nocturnal stratocumulus-topped marine boundary layer

Ten single-column models (SCMs) from eight groups are used to simulate a nocturnal nonprecipitating marine stratocumulus-topped mixed layer as part of an intercomparison organized by the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Cloud System Study, Working Group 1. The case is idealized from observations from the Dynamics and Chemistry of Marine Stratocumulus II, Research Flight 1. SCM simulations with operational resolution are supplemented by high-resolution simulations and compared with observations and large-eddy simulations. All participating SCMs are able to maintain a sharp inversion and a mixed cloud-topped layer, although the moisture profiles show a slight gradient in the mixed layer and produce entrainment rates broadly consistent with observations, but the liquid water paths vary by a factor of 10 after onl y1ho fsimulation at both high and operational resolution. Sensitivity tests show insensitivity to activation of precipitation and shallow convection schemes in most models, as one would observationally expect for this case.

Mesoscale Wind Regimes in Chile at 30°S

Abstract In November of 1999, four permanent surface stations were installed in the vicinity of the surface ozone monitoring station on the summit of the Cerro Tololo (2200 m MSL) in Chile at 30°S. These stations were used to study the atmospheric flow conditions, which are important for the interpretation of the ozone measurements at Cerro Tololo. In addition, radiosonde ascents were performed in March of 2000 near the coast and about 60 km inland. Different wind regimes were distinguished. Above 4 km MSL, large-scale westerly winds prevailed, while northerly winds were observed in a band along the coastline between 2- and 4-km-MSL height. The upper boundary of the northerly wind regime corresponded to the mean height of the Andes mountain range. This wind regime resulted from the westerly winds being blocked and forced to flow in parallel to the Andes (when Froude number is less than 1). The phenomenon was also confirmed by model simulations. Seasonally varying, thermally induced valley winds and a sea ...

The Impact of Stratocumulus Cloud Radiative Properties on Surface Heat Fluxes Simulated with a General Circulation Model

Abstract When sea surface temperatures are prescribed at its lower boundary, the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) produces a realistic simulation of planetary boundary layer (PBL) stratocumulus cloud incidence. Despite this success, net surface solar fluxes are generally overpredicted in comparison to Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) derived data in regions characterized by persistent stratocumulus cloud decks. It is suggested that this deficiency is due to the highly simplified formulation of the PBL cloud optical properties. A new formulation of PBL cloud optical properties is developed based on an estimate of the stratocumulus cloud liquid water path. The January and July mean net surface solar fluxes simulated by the revised AGCM are closer to ERBE-derived values in regions where stratocumulus clouds are frequently observed. The area-averaged estimated error reductions range from 24 (Peru region) to 53 W m−2 (South Pacific storm track re...

KITcube - a mobile observation platform for convection studies deployed during HyMeX

With the increase of spatial resolution of weather forecast models to order O(1 km), the need for adequate observations for model validation becomes evident. Therefore, we designed and constructed the ‘‘KITcube’’, a mobile observation platform for convection studies of processes on the meso-c scale. The KITcube consists of in-situ and remote sensing systems which allow measuring the energy balance components of the Earth’s surface at different sites; the mean atmospheric conditions by radiosondes, GPS station, and a microwave radiometer; the turbulent characteristics by a sodar and wind lidars; and cloud and precipitation properties by use of a cloud radar, a micro rain radar, disdrometers, rain gauges, and an X-band rain radar. The KITcube was deployed fully for the first time on the French island of Corsica during the HyMeX (Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean eXperiment) field campaign in 2012. In this article, the components of KITcube and its implementation on the island are described. Moreover, results from one of the HyMeX intensive observation periods are presented to show the capabilities of KITcube.

Observations of Kinematics and Thermodynamic Structure Surrounding a Convective Storm Cluster over a Low Mountain Range

Abstract Measurements of a convective storm cluster in the northern Black Forest in southwest Germany have revealed the development of a warm and dry downdraft under its anvil cloud that had an inhibiting effect on the subsequent development of convection. These measurements were made on 12 July 2006 as part of the field campaign Prediction, Identification and Tracking of Convective Cells (PRINCE) during which a number of new measurement strategies were deployed. These included the collocation of a rotational Raman lidar and a Doppler lidar on the summit of the highest mountain in the region (1164 m MSL) as well as the deployment of teams carrying radiosondes to be released in the vicinity of convective storms. In addition, an aircraft equipped with sensors for meteorological variables and dropsondes was in operation and determined that the downdraft air was approximately 1.5 K warmer, 4 g kg−1 drier, and therefore 3 g m−3 less dense than the air at the same altitude in the storm’s surroundings. The Raman...

Evaluation of Trade Cumulus in the ECMWF Model with Observations from CALIPSO

Abstract Cloud–Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) are used to assess trade cumulus cloudiness in three versions of the Integrated Forecasting System of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The observations are recast onto the model grid, and two simple threshold criteria for cloud-top height and cloud fraction are used to identify grid points containing trade cumulus clouds. The cloud fraction and cloud-top height distributions of the sample populations are then compared. Results show that all versions of the model overestimate the frequency of occurrence of trade cumulus clouds but underestimate their cloud fraction when present. These effects partially compensate. Cloud-top heights are overestimated in model cycles using the modified Tiedtke parameterization for shallow convection, but are in very good agreement with observations when the dual mass flux parameterization is introduced.

Evaluating Cloud Frequency of Occurrence and Cloud-Top Height Using Spaceborne Lidar Observations

A strategy for model evaluation using spaceborne lidar observations is presented. Observations from the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System are recast onto the model grid to assess the ability of two versions of the Integrated Forecasting System to model marine stratocumulus clouds. The two model versions differ primarily in their treatment of clear and cloudy boundary layers. For each grid column, a representative cloud fraction and cloud-top height are derived from the observations, as well as from the model. By applying the same threshold criteria for cloud fraction and cloud-top height independently to model and observations, samples containing marine stratocumulus clouds can be identified. The frequency of occurrence, cloud fraction, and cloud-top height distributions for all samples thus identified are compared. The evaluation shows improvements in the frequency of occurrence and cloud-top height of marine stratocumulus, though modeled cloud tops remain lower than observed. Additional runs reveal a sensitivity to the strength of the environmental mixing that occurs during the test parcel ascent of the boundary layer parameterization. With a more aggressive parcel, the modeled clouds agree even better with observations.