M. Murat Tarimcilar

Modeling and Analysis of Call Center Arrival Data: A Bayesian Approach

In this paper, we present a modulated Poisson process model to describe and analyze arrival data to a call center. The attractive feature of this model is that it takes into account both covariate and time effects on the call volume intensity, and in so doing, enables us to assess the effectiveness of different advertising strategies along with predicting the arrival patterns. A Bayesian analysis of the model is developed and an extension of the model is presented to describe potential heterogeneity in arrival patterns. The proposed model and the methodology are implemented using real call center arrival data.

Capital budgeting in hospital management using the analytic hierarchy process

In recent years, the health care industry has been experiencing change to a degree unprecedented since the inception of the Medicare program. With traditional in-hospital care on the decline, hospitals are being forced to compete for business. They must identify within their own systems feasible alternatives for dealing with these changes and then determine which ones will best accomplish the goals of the organization. This paper offers a procedure that utilizes the analytic hierarchy process--a multicriteria decision-making tool that helps arrange the possible alternatives in hierarchical order given the priorities of relevant decision makers. An application of the method to a mid-sized hospital is presented. Although the procedure is structured, it is flexible enough to be updated for the realities of any health care institution.

Modeling latent sources in call center arrival data

In this paper, we discuss issues that arise in the analysis of call center arrivals that are mostly linked to individual ads. More specifically, we consider the case where there is no complete linkage between the calls and the advertisements that led to the calls. The ability to model and infer such latent call arrival sources is important from a marketing as well as an operations point of view since knowledge of the linkage improves forecasting performance of the model. We pose this as a missing data problem and develop a data augmentation algorithm for the Bayesian analysis. We implement the proposed algorithm to simulated and actual call center arrival data and discuss its performance.

Cross-Functional Process Integration and the Integrated Data Environment

This paper demonstrates how to plan for large-scale enterprise integration implementations using modern integrated planning methodologies. The focus is on cross-functional process integration in a manufacturing environment. The subjects covered are Integrated Data Environment, System alignment and standard software solutions. Planning for the Integrated Data Environment. Vertical and horizontal integration, and Integrated enterprise modeling.

A comparison of several dynamic programming models of the made-to-order production situation

This paper examines the relationships among several dynamic programming models of the made-to-order production situation. The models consider the impacts of both learning and production rate changes on optimal program costs. The comparisons among the models suggest that a type of economic duality links the solutions. The results of this research suggest a method of transformation which may provide a useful means for finding tractable solutions to similar dynamic programming problems.

Intermarket Efficiency: An Application of Interbattery APT to Mortgage-Backed Securities

Increasing popularity of investments in mortgage-backed securities has led to closer integration of the mortgage market into traditional capital markets. Using monthly returns during 1982–1988 for common stocks, Treasury bonds and GNMA and FHLMC mortgage-backed securities, the interbattery factor analytic Arbitrage Pricing Theory of (Cho, 1984) is used to test five hypotheses for intramarket and intermarket integration. Results indicate that three to five common factors are found within the same security market, while only one to three factors are found common between different markets.The APT could not be rejected within the same security market, but was rejected in most intermarket comparisons. While risk-free rates are found to differ between markets, the risk premium tests are conclusive indicators of integration. Our results support claims that the stock, bond, and the mortgage-backed securities markets are integrated.

Corporate Downsizing and CEO Compensation

Our study examines CEO compensation for firms that announce layoffs during the 1993–2001 period. We find that overall there is a large increase in CEO equity-based compensation in the year prior to and the year of the downsizing. Our sample of downsizing firms has small improvements in operating performance following the announcement. However, these performance improvements manifest themselves in the low but not the high equity-based compensation firms. We find that the announcement period returns are higher for downsizing firms that are larger, hire a new CEO in the year prior to the downsizing, have higher leverage, and better operating performance.

Electronic Commerce Resource Centers. An Industry--University Partnership.

This paper provides a description and an analysis of the effectiveness of the Electronic Commerce Resource Center (ECRC) concept, as implemented in the USA. Following the general presentation, a specific discussion of the industry-education partnership at a Center in Fairfax, Virginia is provided. The mission of the ECRC network is to transfer process improving and enabling electronic commerce technologies to small and medium-sized businesses and government agencies. Each ECRC is a virtual organization, comprised of industry and university partners. In order to achieve its mission, the ECRC focuses on demonstrating emerging technologies, and then rapidly transferring the technologies to small and medium-size businesses. The ECRC mission also requires the provision of training on process improving methods, legacy data management, and enabling technologies. Finally the effectiveness of the Fairfax ECRC is analysed within the context of our internally established performance measurement system. The authors argue that the ECRC concept could be successfully transferred to other countries, given the intense worldwide interest in electronic commerce.