M. N. Wild

A doubling of the Sun's coronal magnetic field during the past 100 years

The solar wind is an extended ionized gas of very high electrical conductivity, and therefore drags some magnetic flux out of the Sun to fill the heliosphere with a weak interplanetary magnetic field,. Magnetic reconnection—the merging of oppositely directed magnetic fields—between the interplanetary field and the Earths magnetic field allows energy from the solar wind to enter the near-Earth environment. The Suns properties, such as its luminosity, are related to its magnetic field, although the connections are still not well understood,. Moreover, changes in the heliospheric magnetic field have been linked with changes in total cloud cover over the Earth, which may influence global climate. Here we show that measurements of the near-Earth interplanetary magnetic field reveal that the total magnetic flux leaving the Sun has risen by a factor of 1.4 since 1964: surrogate measurements of the interplanetary magnetic field indicate that the increase since 1901 has been by a factor of 2.3. This increase may be related to chaotic changes in the dynamo that generates the solar magnetic field. We do not yet know quantitatively how such changes will influence the global environment.

Solar causes of the long-term increase in geomagnetic activity

We analyze the causes of the century-long increase in geomagnetic activity, quantified by annual means of the aa index, using observations of interplanetary space, galactic cosmic rays, the ionosphere, and the auroral electrojet, made during the last three solar cycles. The effects of changes in ionospheric conductivity, the Earths dipole tilt, and magnetic moment are shown to be small; only changes in near-Earth interplanetary space make a significant contribution to the long-term increase in activity. We study the effects of the interplanetary medium by applying dimensional analysis to generate the optimum solar wind-magnetosphere energy coupling function, having an unprecedentedly high correlation coefficient of 0.97. Analysis of the terms of the coupling function shows that the largest contributions to the drift in activity over solar cycles 20-22 originate from rises in the average interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength, solar wind concentration, and speed; average IMF orientation has grown somewhat less propitious for causing geomagnetic activity. The combination of these factors explains almost all of the 39% rise in aa observed over the last three solar cycles. Whereas the IMF strength varies approximately in phase with sunspot numbers, neither its orientation nor the solar wind density shows any coherent solar cycle variation. The solar wind speed peaks strongly in the declining phase of even-numbered cycles and can be identified as the chief cause of the phase shift between the sunspot numbers and the aa index. The rise in the IMF magnitude, the largest single contributor to the drift in geomagnetic activity, is shown to be caused by a rise in the solar coronal magnetic field, consistent with a rise in the coronal source field, modeled from photospheric observations, and an observed decay in cosmic ray fluxes.

On the quasi-periodic nature of magnetopause flux transfer events

The recurrence rate of flux transfer events (FTEs) observed near the dayside magnetopause is discussed. A survey of magnetopause observations by the ISEE satellites shows that the distribution of the intervals between FTE signatures has a mode value of 3 min, but is highly skewed, having upper and lower decile values of 1.5 min and 18.5 min, respectively. The mean value is found to be 8 min, consistent with previous surveys of magnetopause data. The recurrence of quasi-periodic events in the dayside auroral ionosphere is frequently used as evidence for an association with magnetopause FTEs, and the distribution of their repetition intervals should be matched to that presented here if such an association is to be confirmed. A survey of 1 years 15-s data on the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) suggests that the derived distribution could arise from fluctuations in the IMF Bz component, rather than from a natural oscillation frequency of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system.

An equinoctial asymmetry in the high‐latitude thermosphere and ionosphere

A large equinoctial asymmetry has been observed in thermospheric winds and ion velocities at high latitude sites in northern Scandinavia. Throughout the solar cycle, average nighttime thermospheric meridional winds are larger in spring than autumn despite similar levels of solar insolation. The average ion velocities are also larger in spring than autumn at solar maximum, but at solar minimum this position is reversed. Numerical simulations of the thermosphere and ionosphere have not predicted such asymmetries because they generally assume forcing functions that are symmetric about the solstices. The proposed explanation lies in the annual and diurnal variation in solar wind-magnetosphere coupling caused by changes in the orientation of the geomagnetic pole, and hence the magnetosphere, with respect to the average orientation of the IMF (the Russell-McPherron effect). This causes a 12-hour phase difference between the times of maximum solar wind-magnetosphere coupling at the two equinoxes. In addition, the orientation of the geomagnetic axis with respect to the average IMF is such that > 0 for the March equinox and By*Bz> < 0 for September. This results in a further source of asymmetry of forcing of the high-latitude ionosphere as the result of electric fields associated with the four sign combinations of By and Bz. Several predictions arise from the explanation given: for example, a high-latitude station measuring thermospheric neutral winds in Alaska, 180° in longitude from Kiruna, might be expected to see nighttime thermospheric winds that are larger in the autumn than in the spring.

Predicting Solar Disturbance Effects on Navigation Systems

A variety of operational systems are vulnerable to disruption by solar disturbances brought to the Earth by the solar wind. Of particular importance to navigation systems are energetic charged particles which can generate temporary malfunctions and permanent damage in satellites. Modern spacecraft technology may prove to be particularly at risk during the next maximum of the solar cycle. In addition, the associated ionospheric disturbances cause phase shifts of transionospheric and ionosphere-reflected signals, giving positioning errors and loss of signal for GPS and Loran-C positioning systems and for over-the-horizon radars. We now have sufficient understanding of the solar wind, and how it interacts with the Earths magnetic field, to predict statistically the likely effects on operational systems over the next solar cycle. We also have a number of advanced ways of detecting and tracking these disturbances through space but we cannot, as yet, provide accurate forecasts of individual disturbances that could be used to protect satellites and to correct errors. In addition, we have recently discovered long-term changes in the Sun, which mean that the number and severity of the disturbances to operational systems are increasing.