M. Pillsbury

Population-level impact, herd immunity, and elimination after human papillomavirus vaccination: a systematic review and meta-analysis of predictions from transmission-dynamic models

Summary Background Modelling studies have been widely used to inform human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination policy decisions; however, many models exist and it is not known whether they produce consistent predictions of population-level effectiveness and herd effects. We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of model predictions of the long-term population-level effectiveness of vaccination against HPV 16, 18, 6, and 11 infection in women and men, to examine the variability in predicted herd effects, incremental benefit of vaccinating boys, and potential for HPV-vaccine-type elimination. Methods We searched MEDLINE and Embase for transmission-dynamic modelling studies published between Jan 1, 2009, and April 28, 2015, that predicted the population-level impact of vaccination on HPV 6, 11, 16, and 18 infections in high-income countries. We contacted authors to determine whether they were willing to produce new predictions for standardised scenarios. Strategies investigated were girls-only vaccination and girls and boys vaccination at age 12 years. Base-case vaccine characteristics were 100% efficacy and lifetime protection. We did sensitivity analyses by varying vaccination coverage, vaccine efficacy, and duration of protection. For all scenarios we pooled model predictions of relative reductions in HPV prevalence (RRprev) over time after vaccination and summarised results using the median and 10th and 90th percentiles (80% uncertainty intervals [UI]). Findings 16 of 19 eligible models from ten high-income countries provided predictions. Under base-case assumptions, 40% vaccination coverage and girls-only vaccination, the RRprev of HPV 16 among women and men was 0·53 (80% UI 0·46–0·68) and 0·36 (0·28–0·61), respectively, after 70 years. With 80% girls-only vaccination coverage, the RRprev of HPV 16 among women and men was 0·93 (0·90–1·00) and 0·83 (0·75–1·00), respectively. Vaccinating boys in addition to girls increased the RRprev of HPV 16 among women and men by 0·18 (0·13–0·32) and 0·35 (0·27–0·39) for 40% coverage, and 0·07 (0·00–0·10) and 0·16 (0·01–0·25) for 80% coverage, respectively. The RRprev were greater for HPV 6, 11, and 18 than for HPV 16 for all scenarios investigated. Finally at 80% coverage, most models predicted that girls and boys vaccination would eliminate HPV 6, 11, 16, and 18, with a median RRprev of 1·00 for women and men for all four HPV types. Variability in pooled findings was low, but increased with lower vaccination coverage and shorter vaccine protection (from lifetime to 20 years). Interpretation Although HPV models differ in structure, data used for calibration, and settings, our population-level predictions were generally concordant and suggest that strong herd effects are expected from vaccinating girls only, even with coverage as low as 20%. Elimination of HPV 16, 18, 6, and 11 is possible if 80% coverage in girls and boys is reached and if high vaccine efficacy is maintained over time. Funding Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

Public Health Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Hepatitis A Vaccination in the United States: A Disease Transmission Dynamic Modeling Approach

OBJECTIVE To assess the population-level impact and cost-effectiveness of hepatitis A vaccination programs in the United States. METHODS We developed an age-structured population model of hepatitis A transmission dynamics to evaluate two policies of administering a two-dose hepatitis A vaccine to children aged 12 to 18 months: 1) universal routine vaccination as recommended by the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices in 2006 and 2) Advisory Committee on Immunization Practicess previous regional policy of routine vaccination of children living in states with high hepatitis A incidence. Inputs were obtained from the published literature, public sources, and clinical trial data. The model was fitted to hepatitis A seroprevalence (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey II and III) and reported incidence from the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System (1980-1995). We used a societal perspective and projected costs (in 2013 US

Modelling the effects of quadrivalent Human Papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in Puerto Rico

), quality-adjusted life-years, incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, and other outcomes over the period 2006 to 2106. RESULTS On average, universal routine hepatitis A vaccination prevented 259,776 additional infections, 167,094 outpatient visits, 4781 hospitalizations, and 228 deaths annually. Compared with the regional vaccination policy, universal routine hepatitis A vaccination was cost saving. In scenario analysis, universal vaccination prevented 94,957 infections, 46,179 outpatient visits, 1286 hospitalizations, and 15 deaths annually and had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of

Correction: Modelling the effects of quadrivalent Human Papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in Puerto Rico

21,223/quality-adjusted life-year when herd protection was ignored. CONCLUSIONS Our model predicted that universal childhood hepatitis A vaccination led to significant reductions in hepatitis A mortality and morbidity. Consequently, universal vaccination was cost saving compared with a regional vaccination policy. Herd protection effects of hepatitis A vaccination programs had a significant impact on hepatitis A mortality, morbidity, and cost-effectiveness ratios.

Impact of Vaccination: Health Impact and Cost-Effectiveness to Make Informed Policy Decision on the Introduction of Human Papillomavirus (Hpv) Vaccine to the National Immunization Program (Nip) in Thailand

Background No study has estimated the potential impact of Human Papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in Puerto Rico, a population with considerable burden of HPV-related morbidities. We evaluated the health and economic impacts of implementing a vaccination strategy for females and males in Puerto Rico, with the quadrivalent HPV (HPV4) vaccine, under different vaccination scenarios. Methods We adapted a mathematical model which estimates the direct and indirect health benefits and costs of HPV4 vaccination in a dynamic population. The model compared three vaccination scenarios against screening only (no-vaccination) for three doses of HPV4 vaccine among individuals aged 11–15 years in Puerto Rico: 1) 34% for females and 13% for males (34%F/13%M), 2) 50% for females and 40% for males (50%F/40%M), and 3) 80% for female and 64% for male (80%F/64%M). Data specific to Puerto Rico was used. When not available, values from the United States were used. Input data consisted of demographic, behavioral, epidemiological, screening, and economic parameters. Results The model predicted decreases in: 1) HPV infection prevalence for females and males, 2) cervical intraepithelial neoplasia and cervical cancer incidence for females, 3) genital warts incidence for females and males, and 4) cervical cancer deaths among females, when various vaccination program scenarios were considered. In addition, when the vaccination percentage was increased in every scenario, the reduction was greater and began earlier. The analysis also evidenced an incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) of

The Potential Public Health Impact of Varicella Vaccination in Hungary

1,964 per quality–adjusted life year gained for the 80%F/64%M uptake scenario. Conclusions HPV vaccine can prove its cost effectiveness and substantially reduce the burden and costs associated to various HPV-related conditions when targeted to the adequate population together with an organized HPV vaccination program.

Projecting the Potential Public Health Impact of A 9-Valent HPV Vaccine in Japan

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0184540.].

The Cost-Effectiveness of Varicella Vaccination In Peru

• Cervical cancer is the second most common cancer and the second most common cause of death among cancer in Thai women (ASR 24.5 and 12.8 per 100,000 women/year) • Since 2004, VIA test and pap smear have been covered by national UC health scheme as cervical cancer screening tests • Despite the introduction of cervical cancer screening tests, those services have not contributed to a significant health impact • In 2007, two HPV vaccine products were licensed for use in Thailand