M. R. Raupach

Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO2 growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks

The growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), the largest human contributor to human-induced climate change, is increasing rapidly. Three processes contribute to this rapid increase. Two of these processes concern emissions. Recent growth of the world economy combined with an increase in its carbon intensity have led to rapid growth in fossil fuel CO2 emissions since 2000: comparing the 1990s with 2000–2006, the emissions growth rate increased from 1.3% to 3.3% y−1. The third process is indicated by increasing evidence (P = 0.89) for a long-term (50-year) increase in the airborne fraction (AF) of CO2 emissions, implying a decline in the efficiency of CO2 sinks on land and oceans in absorbing anthropogenic emissions. Since 2000, the contributions of these three factors to the increase in the atmospheric CO2 growth rate have been ≈65 ± 16% from increasing global economic activity, 17 ± 6% from the increasing carbon intensity of the global economy, and 18 ± 15% from the increase in AF. An increasing AF is consistent with results of climate–carbon cycle models, but the magnitude of the observed signal appears larger than that estimated by models. All of these changes characterize a carbon cycle that is generating stronger-than-expected and sooner-than-expected climate forcing.

Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions

CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel burning and industrial processes have been accelerating at a global scale, with their growth rate increasing from 1.1% y−1 for 1990–1999 to >3% y−1 for 2000–2004. The emissions growth rate since 2000 was greater than for the most fossil-fuel intensive of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions scenarios developed in the late 1990s. Global emissions growth since 2000 was driven by a cessation or reversal of earlier declining trends in the energy intensity of gross domestic product (GDP) (energy/GDP) and the carbon intensity of energy (emissions/energy), coupled with continuing increases in population and per-capita GDP. Nearly constant or slightly increasing trends in the carbon intensity of energy have been recently observed in both developed and developing regions. No region is decarbonizing its energy supply. The growth rate in emissions is strongest in rapidly developing economies, particularly China. Together, the developing and least-developed economies (forming 80% of the worlds population) accounted for 73% of global emissions growth in 2004 but only 41% of global emissions and only 23% of global cumulative emissions since the mid-18th century. The results have implications for global equity.

Recent patterns and mechanisms of carbon exchange by terrestrial ecosystems

Knowledge of carbon exchange between the atmosphere, land and the oceans is important, given that the terrestrial and marine environments are currently absorbing about half of the carbon dioxide that is emitted by fossil-fuel combustion. This carbon uptake is therefore limiting the extent of atmospheric and climatic change, but its long-term nature remains uncertain. Here we provide an overview of the current state of knowledge of global and regional patterns of carbon exchange by terrestrial ecosystems. Atmospheric carbon dioxide and oxygen data confirm that the terrestrial biosphere was largely neutral with respect to net carbon exchange during the 1980s, but became a net carbon sink in the 1990s. This recent sink can be largely attributed to northern extratropical areas, and is roughly split between North America and Eurasia. Tropical land areas, however, were approximately in balance with respect to carbon exchange, implying a carbon sink that offset emissions due to tropical deforestation. The evolution of the terrestrial carbon sink is largely the result of changes in land use over time, such as regrowth on abandoned agricultural land and fire prevention, in addition to responses to environmental changes, such as longer growing seasons, and fertilization by carbon dioxide and nitrogen. Nevertheless, there remain considerable uncertainties as to the magnitude of the sink in different regions and the contribution of different processes.

Rough-Wall Turbulent Boundary Layers

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Drag and drag partition on rough surfaces

An analytic treatment of drag and drag partition on rough surfaces is given. The aims are to provide simple predictive expressions for practical applications, and to rationalize existing laboratory and atmospheric data into a single framework. Using dimensional analysis and two physical hypotheses, theoretical predictions are developed for total stress (described by the square root of the canopy drag coefficient), stress partition (described by the ratio ΤS/Τ of the stress Τs on the underlying ground surface to total stress Τ), zero-plane displacement and roughness length. The stress partition prediction is the simple equation τS/τ= 1/(1+βλ), where λ= CRCS the ratio of element and surface drag coefficients. This prediction agrees very well with data and is free of adjustable constants. Other predictions also agree well with a range of laboratory and atmospheric data.

Maximum conductances for evaporation from global vegetation types

We compare independent data sets of the maximum stomata1 conductance (gsmax, for single leaves) and bulk surface conductance (G,,,,, for a vegetated surface including the plant canopy and soil) for evaporation. Data were obtained from field measurements, restricted to periods with plentiful soil water, adequate light, high relative humidity and moderate temperature. The data encompass most major vegetation types and a wide range of leaf area index (A). Observed G smax is not systematically dependent on A; and takes average values of 20 and 33 mm s-’ for natural vegetation and agricultural crops. A similar pattern exists in the g,,, data, which yield remarkably consistent average values of 6 and 12 mm s-l, respectively, for natural vegetation and crops. Overall, the ratio G,,,,/g,,,, is consistently close to 3, for seven major vegetation types of diverse structure. A simple model accounts for the close relationship between g,,,, and G smax, and in particular how G,,,, is conservative against A because of the compensating decrease in plant canopy evaporation and increase in soil evaporation as A diminishes. The results are important for development of parameters for biosphere-atmosphere interactions in models.

Simplified expressions for vegetation roughness length and zero-plane displacement as functions of canopy height and area index

Using a previous treatment of drag and drag partition on rough surfaces, simple analytic expressions are derived for the roughness length (z0) and zero-plane displacement (d) of vegetated surfaces, as functions of canopy height (h) and area index (Λ). The resulting expressions provide a good fit to numerous field and wind tunnel data, and are suitable for applications such as surface parameterisations in atmospheric models.

Averaging procedures for flow within vegetation canopies

Most one-dimensional models of flow within vegetation canopies are based on horizontally averaged flow variables. This paper formalizes the horizontal averaging operation. Two averaging schemes are considered: pure horizontal averaging at a single instant, and time averaging followed by horizontal averaging. These schemes produce different forms for the mean and turbulent kinetic energy balances, and especially for the ‘wake production’ term describing the transfer of energy from large-scale motion to wake turbulence by form drag. The differences are primarily due to the appearance, in the covariances produced by the second scheme, of dispersive components arising from the spatial correlation of time-averaged flow variables. The two schemes are shown to coincide if these dispersive fluxes vanish.

A wind-tunnel study of turbulent flow close to regularly arrayed rough surfaces

Recent observations of flux-gradient anomalies in atmospheric flow close to forests, and similar rough surfaces, prompted a wind-tunnel investigation in which cross-wire anemometry was used to study the vertical development and horizontal variability of adiabatic flow over five regularly arrayed rough surfaces, encompassing a 32-fold range of roughness concentration λ. The roughness elements were cylinders, 6 mm in both height and diameter.Below a layer in which the velocity profile is semi-logarithmic, two surface influences upon the mean velocity field can be distinguished: wake diffusion and horizontal inhomogeneity. The wake diffusion effect causes non-dimensional vertical velocity gradients to be smaller than in the semi-logarithmic region; at least for elements with aspect ratios l/h ≲ 1, it is governed by the transverse dimension l of the roughness elements, and is observed when z > h + 1.5l (where z is height above the underlying surface, and h is the height of the roughness elements). A simple diffusivity model successfully describes the horizontally averaged velocity profiles in the region of wake influence, despite conceptual disadvantages. The horizontal inhomogeneity of the flow is negligible when z > h + D (D being the inter-element spacing), and does not entirely mask the wake diffusion effect except over very sparsely roughened surfaces (λ ≲ 0.02). A criterion for negligibility of both effects, and hence for applicability of conventional turbulent diffusivity theory for momentum, is z > h + 1.5D. These results are compared with atmospheric data, and indicate that wake diffusion may well cause some underestimation of the zero-plane displacement d over typical vegetated surfaces.

Experiments on scalar dispersion within a model plant canopy part I: The turbulence structure

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