M. Rex

Arctic ozone loss and climate change

[1]xa0We report the first empirical quantification of the relation between winter-spring loss of Arctic ozone and changes in stratospheric climate. Our observations show that ∼15 DU additional loss of column ozone can be expected per Kelvin cooling of the Arctic lower stratosphere, an impact nearly three times larger than current model simulations suggest. We show that stratospheric climate conditions became significantly more favorable for large Arctic ozone losses over the past four decades; i.e., the maximum potential for formation of polar stratospheric clouds increased steadily by a factor of three. Severe Arctic ozone loss during the past decade occurred as a result of the combined effect of this long-term climate change and the anthropogenic increase in stratospheric halogens.

Arctic winter 2005: Implications for stratospheric ozone loss and climate change

[1]xa0The Arctic polar vortex exhibited widespread regions of low temperatures during the winter of 2005, resulting in significant ozone depletion by chlorine and bromine species. We show that chemical loss of column ozone (ΔO3) and the volume of Arctic vortex air cold enough to support the existence of polar stratospheric clouds (VPSC) both exceed levels found for any other Arctic winter during the past 40 years. Cold conditions and ozone loss in the lowermost Arctic stratosphere (e.g., between potential temperatures of 360 to 400 K) were particularly unusual compared to previous years. Measurements indicate ΔO3 = 121 ± 20 DU and that ΔO3 versus VPSC lies along an extension of the compact, near linear relation observed for previous Arctic winters. The maximum value of VPSC during five to ten year intervals exhibits a steady, monotonic increase over the past four decades, indicating that the coldest Arctic winters have become significantly colder, and hence are more conducive to ozone depletion by anthropogenic halogens.

A Strategy for Process-Oriented Validation of Coupled Chemistry- Climate Models

Evaluating CCMs with the presented framework will increase our confidence in predictions of stratospheric ozone change.

In-situ measurements of stratospheric ozone depletion rates in the Arctic winter 1991/1992: A Lagrangian approach

A Lagrangian approach has been used to assess the degree of chemically induced ozone loss in the Arctic lower stratosphere in winter 1991/1992. Trajectory calculations are used to identify air parcels probed by two ozonesondes at different points along the trajectories. A statistical analysis of the measured differences in ozone mixing ratio and the time the air parcel spent in sunlight between the measurements provides the chemical ozone loss. Initial results were first described by von der Gathen et al. [1995]. Here we present a more detailed description of the technique and a more comprehensive discussion of the results. Ozone loss rates of up to 10 ppbv per sunlit hour (or 54 ppbv per day) were found inside the polar vortex on the 475 K potential temperature surface (about 19.5 km in altitude) at the end of January. The period of rapid ozone loss coincides and slightly lags a period when temperatures were cold enough for type I polar stratospheric clouds to form. It is shown that the ozone loss occurs exclusively during the sunlit portions of the trajectories. The time evolution and vertical distribution of the ozone loss rates are discussed.

Chemical depletion of Arctic ozone in winter 1999/2000

During Arctic winters with a cold, stable stratospheric circulation, reactions on the surface of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) lead to elevated abundances of chlorine monoxide (ClO) that, in the presence of sunlight, destroy ozone. Here we show that PSCs were more widespread during the 1999/2000 Arctic winter than for any other Arctic winter in the past two decades. We have used three fundamentally different approaches to derive the degree of chemical ozone loss from ozonesonde, balloon, aircraft, and satellite instruments. We show that the ozone losses derived from these different instruments and approaches agree very well, resulting in a high level of confidence in the results. Chemical processes led to a 70% reduction of ozone for a region ∼1 km thick of the lower stratosphere, the largest degree of local loss ever reported for the Arctic. The Match analysis of ozonesonde data shows that the accumulated chemical loss of ozone inside the Arctic vortex totaled 117 ± 14 Dobson units (DU) by the end of winter. This loss, combined with dynamical redistribution of air parcels, resulted in a 88 ± 13 DU reduction in total column ozone compared to the amount that would have been present in the absence of any chemical loss. The chemical loss of ozone throughout the winter was nearly balanced by dynamical resupply of ozone to the vortex, resulting in a relatively constant value of total ozone of 340 ± 50 DU between early January and late March. This observation of nearly constant total ozone in the Arctic vortex is in contrast to the increase of total column ozone between January and March that is observed during most years.

Chemical Ozone Loss in the Arctic Winter 1994/95 as Determined by the Match Technique

The chemically induced ozone loss inside the Arctic vortex during the winter 1994/95 has been quantified by coordinated launches of over 1000 ozonesondes from 35 stations within the Match 94/95 campaign. Trajectory calculations, which allow diabatic heating or cooling, were used to trigger the balloon launches so that the ozone concentrations in a large number of air parcels are each measured twice a few days apart. The difference in ozone concentration is calculated for each pair and is interpreted as a change caused by chemistry. The data analysis has been carried out for January to March between 370 K and 600 K potential temperature. Ozone loss along these trajectories occurred exclusively during sunlit periods, and the periods of ozone loss coincided with, but slightly lagged, periods where stratospheric temperatures were low enough for polar stratospheric clouds to exist. Two clearly separated periods of ozone loss show up. Ozone loss rates first peaked in late January with a maximum value of 53 ppbv per day (1.6 % per day) at 475 K and faster losses higher up. Then, in mid-March ozone loss rates at 475 K reached 34 ppbv per day (1.3 % per day), faster losses were observed lower down and no ozone loss was found above 480 K during that period. The ozone loss in hypothetical air parcels with average diabetic descent rates has been integrated to give an accumulated loss through the winter. The most severe depletion of 2.0 ppmv (60 %) took place in air that was at 515 K on 1 January and at 450 K on 20 March. Vertical integration over the levels from 370 K to 600 K gives a column loss rate, which reached a maximum value of 2.7 Dobson Units per day in mid-March. The accumulated column loss between 1 January and 31 March was found to be 127 DU (∼36 %).

Arctic Ozone Loss in Threshold Conditions: Match Observations in 1997/1998 and 1998/1999

Chemical ozone loss rates inside the Arctic polar vortex were determined in early 1998 and early 1999 by using the Match technique based on coordinated ozonesonde measurements. These two winters provide the only opportunities in recent years to investigate chemical ozone loss in a warm Arctic vortex under threshold conditions, i.e., where the preconditions for chlorine activation, and hence ozone destruction, only occurred occasionally. In 1998, results were obtained in January and February between 410 and 520 K. The overall ozone loss was observed to be largely insignificant, with the exception of late February, when those air parcels exposed to temperatures below 195 K were affected by chemical ozone loss. In 1999, results are confined to the 475 K isentropic level, where no significant ozone loss was observed. Average temperatures were some 8°–10° higher than those in 1995, 1996, and 1997, when substantial chemical ozone loss occurred. The results underline the strong dependence of the chemical ozone loss on the stratospheric temperatures. This study shows that enhanced chlorine alone does not provide a sufficient condition for ozone loss. The evolution of stratospheric temperatures over the next decade will be the determining factor for the amount of wintertime chemical ozone loss in the Arctic stratosphere.

Comparison of empirically derived ozone losses in the Arctic vortex

[1]xa0A number of studies have reported empirical estimates of ozone loss in the Arctic vortex. They have used satellite and in situ measurements and have principally covered the Arctic winters in the 1990s. While there is qualitative consistency between the patterns of ozone loss, a quantitative comparison of the published values shows apparent disagreements. In this paper we examine these disagreements in more detail. We choose to concentrate on the five main techniques (Match, Systeme dAnalyse par Observation Zenithale (SAOZ)/REPROBUS, Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), vortex average descent, and the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) ozone tracer approach). Estimates of the ozone losses in three winters (1994/1995, 1995/1996 and 1996/1997) are recalculated so that the same time periods, altitude ranges, and definitions of the Arctic vortex are used. This recalculation reveals a remarkably good agreement between the various estimates. For example, a superficial comparison of results from Match and from MLS indicates a big discrepancy (2.0 ± 0.3 and 0.85 ppmv, respectively, for air ending at ∼460 K in March 1995). However, the more precise comparisons presented here reveal good agreement for the individual MLS periods (0.5 ± 0.1 versus 0.5 ppmv; 0.4 ± 0.2 versus 0.3–0.4 ppmv; and 0.16 ± 0.09 ppmv versus no significant loss). Initial comparisons of the column losses derived for 1999/2000 also show good agreement with four techniques, giving 105 DU (SAOZ/REPROBUS), 80 DU (380–700 K partial column from Polar Ozone and Aerosol Monitoring (POAM)/REPROBUS), 85 ± 10 DU (HALOE ozone tracer), and 88 ± 13 (400–580 partial column from Match). There are some remaining discrepancies with ozone losses calculated using HALOE ozone tracer relations; it is important to ensure that the initial relation is truly representative of the vortex prior to the period of ozone loss.

Subsidence, mixing, and denitrification of Arctic polar vortex air measured during POLARIS

We determine the degree of denitrification that occurred during the 1996-1997 Arctic winter using a technique that is based on balloon and aircraft borne measurements of NO y , N 2 O, and CH 4 . The NO 3 /N 2 O relation can undergo significant change due to isentropic mixing of subsided vortex air masses with extravortex air due to the high nonlinearity of the relation. These transport related reductions in NO y can be difficult to distinguish from the effects of denitrification caused by sedimentation of condensed HNO 3 . In this study, high-altitude balloon measurements are used to define the properties of air masses that later descend in the polar vortex to altitudes sampled by the ER-2 aircraft (i.e., ∼20 km) and mix isentropically with extravortex air. Observed correlations of CH 4 and N 2 O are used to quantify the degree of subsidence and mixing for individual air masses. On the basis of these results the expected mixing ratio of NO y resulting from subsidence and mixing, defined here as NO y ** , is calculated and compared with the measured mixing ratio of NO y . Values of NO y and NO y ** agree well during most parts of the flights. A slight deficit of NO y versus NO y ** is found only for a limited region during the ER-2 flight on April 26, 1997. This deficit is interpreted as indication for weak denitrification (∼2-3 ppbv) in that air mass. The small degree of denitrification is consistent with the general synoptic-scale temperature history of the sampled air masses, which did not encounter temperatures below the frostpoint and had relatively brief encounters with temperatures below the nitric acid trihydrate equilibrium temperature. Much larger degrees of denitrification would have been inferred if mixing effects had been ignored, which is the traditional approach to diagnose denitrification. Our analysis emphasizes the importance of using other correlations of conserved species to be able to accurately interpret changes in the NO y /N 2 O relation with respect to denitrification.

A Study of Ozone Laminae Using Diabatic Trajectories, Contour Advection and Photochemical Trajectory Model Simulations.

In this paper, we show that the rate of ozone loss in both polar and mid-latitudes, derived from ozonesonde and satellite data, has almost the same vertical distribution (although opposite sense) to that of ozone laminae abundance. Ozone laminae appear in the lower stratosphere soon after the polar vortex is established in autumn, increase in number throughout the winter and reach a maximum abundance in late winter or spring. We indicate a possible coupling between mid-winter, sudden stratospheric warmings (when the vortex is weakened or disrupted) and the abundance of ozone laminae using a 23-year record of ozonesonde data from the World Ozone Data Center in Canada combined with monthly-mean January polar temperatures at 30 hPa.Results are presented from an experiment conducted during the winter of 1994/95, in phase II of the Second European Stratospheric And Mid-latitude Experiment (SESAME), in which 93 ozone-enhanced laminae of polar origin observed by ozonesondes at different time and locations are linked by diabatic trajectories, enabling them to be probed twice or more. It is shown that, in general, ozone concentrations inside laminae fall progressively with time, mixing irreversibly with mid-latitude air on time-scales of a few weeks. A particular set of laminae which advected across Europe during mid February 1995 are examined in detail. These laminae were observed almost simultaneously at seven ozonesonde stations, providing information on their spatial scales. The development of these laminae has been modelled using the Contour Advection algorithm of Norton (1994), adding support to the concept that many laminae are extrusions of vortex air. Finally, a photochemical trajectory model is used to show that, if the air in the laminae is chemically activated, it will impact on mid-latitude ozone concentrations. An estimate is made of the potential number of ozone molecules lost each winter via this mechanism.