M. Trail

Avoided Heat-Related Mortality through Climate Adaptation Strategies in Three US Cities

Heat-related mortality in US cities is expected to more than double by the mid-to-late 21st century. Rising heat exposure in cities is projected to result from: 1) climate forcings from changing global atmospheric composition; and 2) local land surface characteristics responsible for the urban heat island effect. The extent to which heat management strategies designed to lessen the urban heat island effect could offset future heat-related mortality remains unexplored in the literature. Using coupled global and regional climate models with a human health effects model, we estimate changes in the number of heat-related deaths in 2050 resulting from modifications to vegetative cover and surface albedo across three climatically and demographically diverse US metropolitan areas: Atlanta, Georgia, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, and Phoenix, Arizona. Employing separate health impact functions for average warm season and heat wave conditions in 2050, we find combinations of vegetation and albedo enhancement to offset projected increases in heat-related mortality by 40 to 99% across the three metropolitan regions. These results demonstrate the potential for extensive land surface changes in cities to provide adaptive benefits to urban populations at risk for rising heat exposure with climate change.

Regional air quality management aspects of climate change: impact of climate mitigation options on regional air emissions.

We investigate the projected impact of six climate mitigation scenarios on U.S. emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and nitrogen oxides (NOX) associated with energy use in major sectors of the U.S. economy (commercial, residential, industrial, electricity generation, and transportation). We use the EPA U.S. 9-region national database with the MARKet Allocation energy system model to project emissions changes over the 2005 to 2050 time frame. The modeled scenarios are two carbon tax, two low carbon transportation, and two biomass fuel choice scenarios. In the lower carbon tax and both biomass fuel choice scenarios, SO2 and NOX achieve reductions largely through pre-existing rules and policies, with only relatively modest additional changes occurring from the climate mitigation measures. The higher carbon tax scenario projects greater declines in CO2 and SO2 relative to the 2050 reference case, but electricity sector NOX increases. This is a result of reduced investments in power plant NOX controls in earlier years in anticipation of accelerated coal power plant retirements, energy penalties associated with carbon capture systems, and shifting of NOX emissions in later years from power plants subject to a regional NOX cap to those in regions not subject to the cap.

Impacts of potential CO2-reduction policies on air quality in the United States.

Impacts of emissions changes from four potential U.S. CO2 emission reduction policies on 2050 air quality are analyzed using the community multiscale air quality model (CMAQ). Future meteorology was downscaled from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE General Circulation Model (GCM) to the regional scale using the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model. We use emissions growth factors from the EPAUS9r MARKAL model to project emissions inventories for two climate tax scenarios, a combined transportation and energy scenario, a biomass energy scenario and a reference case. Implementation of a relatively aggressive carbon tax leads to improved PM2.5 air quality compared to the reference case as incentives increase for facilities to install flue-gas desulfurization (FGD) and carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies. However, less capital is available to install NOX reduction technologies, resulting in an O3 increase. A policy aimed at reducing CO2 from the transportation sector and electricity production sectors leads to reduced emissions of mobile source NOX, thus reducing O3. Over most of the U.S., this scenario leads to reduced PM2.5 concentrations. However, increased primary PM2.5 emissions associated with fuel switching in the residential and industrial sectors leads to increased organic matter (OM) and PM2.5 in some cities.

Modeling an air pollution episode in northwestern United States: Identifying the effect of nitrogen oxide and volatile organic compound emission changes on air pollutants formation using direct sensitivity analysis

Air quality impacts of volatile organic compound (VOC) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions from major sources over the northwestern United States are simulated. The comprehensive nested modeling system comprises three models: Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ), Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), and Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE). In addition, the decoupled direct method in three dimensions (DDM-3D) is used to determine the sensitivities of pollutant concentrations to changes in precursor emissions during a severe smog episode in July of 2006. The average simulated 8-hr daily maximum O3 concentration is 48.9 ppb, with 1-hr O3 maxima up to 106 ppb (40 km southeast of Seattle). The average simulated PM2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <2.5 μm) concentration at the measurement sites is 9.06 μg m−3, which is in good agreement with the observed concentration (8.06 μg m−3). In urban areas (i.e., Seattle, Vancouver, etc.), the model predicts that, on average, a reduction of NOx emissions is simulated to lead to an increase in average 8-hr daily maximum O3 concentrations, and will be most prominent in Seattle (where the greatest sensitivity is −0.2 ppb per % change of mobile sources). On the other hand, decreasing NOx emissions is simulated to decrease the 8-hr maximum O3 concentrations in remote and forested areas. Decreased NOx emissions are simulated to slightly increase PM2.5 in major urban areas. In urban areas, a decrease in VOC emissions will result in a decrease of 8-hr maximum O3 concentrations. The impact of decreased VOC emissions from biogenic, mobile, nonroad, and area sources on average 8-hr daily maximum O3 concentrations is up to 0.05 ppb decrease per % of emission change, each. Decreased emissions of VOCs decrease average PM2.5 concentrations in the entire modeling domain. In major cities, PM2.5 concentrations are more sensitive to emissions of VOCs from biogenic sources than other sources of VOCs. These results can be used to interpret the effectiveness of VOC or NOx controls over pollutant concentrations, especially for localities that may exceed National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). Implications: The effect of NOx and VOC controls on ozone and PM2.5 concentrations in the northwestern United States is examined using the decoupled direct method in three dimensions (DDM-3D) in a state-of-the-art three-dimensional chemical transport model (CMAQ). NOx controls are predicted to increase PM2.5 and ozone in major urban areas and decrease ozone in more remote and forested areas. VOC reductions are helpful in reducing ozone and PM2.5 concentrations in urban areas. Biogenic VOC sources have the largest impact on O3 and PM2.5 concentrations.

Lower Tropospheric Aerosol Measurements by MAX-DOAS During Severe Asian Dust Period

A recently developed aerosol retrieval algorithm based on O4 slant column densities (SCDs) measured at a visible wavelength (476 nm) was utilized to derive aerosol information (e.g., aerosol optical depth (AOD) and vertical distributions of aerosol extinction coefficients (AECs)) in the lower troposphere during a severe Asian dust period. The MAX-DOAS measurements were carried out at Gwangju, Korea for nearly three months from February through May 2008. Comparison with AOD and surface PM10, measured by collocated sunphotometer and beta gauge sampler, were made to validate the retrieved AODs and AECs in the atmospheric layer surface to 1 km height above ground. On the Asian dust days, temporal variations of the AODs retrieved from MAX-DOAS measurements show similar patterns, but with reduced magnitudes, to those measured by sunphotometer whereas similar AOD magnitude and temporal variation was observed between MAX-DOAS and sunphotometer measurements during the non-episodic days. Smaller correlation was observed between the surface PM10 and AECs at 0.5 km during the Asian dust period compared to the correlation obtained for the non episodic days. This study demonstrates the ability of MAX-DOAS as a remote sensing technique for surface aerosol measurements under conditions of homogeneously distributed pollution in the planetary boundary layer. However, for the measurement of significantly enhanced aerosol loads with heterogeneous vertical distribution (e.g., Asian dust), measured AODs and AECs are underestimated at altitudes above 1 km due to decreased sensitivity of MAX-DOAS measurements at high altitudes.