M. Utku Ozmen

Price Rigidity in Turkey: Evidence from Micro Data

Abstract In this study we investigate the duration of consumer price spells and price change patterns for Turkey by employing a comprehensive micro price data covering around 6,000 items over four years. In detail, we analyze how long typical price spell lasts and we investigate the size, frequency, distribution and synchronization of price changes. Compared to advanced economies, a higher frequency of price changes is estimated. Findings suggest substantial heterogeneity among sub-groups in terms of frequency and synchronization indicators. The mixed evidence of both state and time-dependent pricing is also relevant for Turkey, an emerging market economy.

Foreign Player Quota, Experience and Efficiency of Basketball Players

This study analyzes how the efficiency of basketball players depends on experience, player’s nationality and team type. Using data for players in the Turkish Basketball League (TBL) from 1997 to 2010, we first show that efficiency of players initially increase with experience, but after a certain level decrease with it. Second, foreign players are on average more talented than native players. Third, the experience–efficiency link is not valid for foreign players indicating that more experience does not affect efficiency. Fourth, efficiency of foreign players in top-teams is no different than that of foreign players in regular (non-top) teams; whereas, native players in top-teams are more efficient than native players in other teams. Finally, in the presence of foreign player quota, top-teams hire the maximum number of foreign players allowed, while financially constrained regular teams can afford less foreign players. Consequently, under foreign player quota the quality of native players and the extent to which a team can pay for additional foreign players determine the team success.

Marginal contribution of game statistics to probability of winning at different levels of competition in basketball: Evidence from the Euroleague:

In this study, we analyse the marginal contribution of team level game statistics to the probability of winning a basketball game at various competitive levels considering data from 14 seasons of the Euroleague. Different from the existing literature, we directly compute the marginal contribution of producing one more unit of each game statistic than the opponent to the probability of winning. We also differentiate our analysis over three stages of the Euroleague season that exhibit distinct levels of competitiveness. Results suggest sizeable differences in terms of contribution of game statistics across different levels of competition. As better performing teams advance, marginal contributions of game actions, especially defensive rebounding, assists, turnovers and shooting accuracy are considerably greater in absolute terms at more competitive stages. The most striking effect, however, is related to turnovers. While registering one turnover more than the opponent reduces the probability to win by 13% during the regular season (less competitive stage) and by 17% during Top-16 (the second competitive stage), it reduces the probability to win by 41% at the Play-offs stage (more competitive stage). Such a large impact may alter training and coaching strategies.In this study, we analyse the marginal contribution of team level game statistics to the probability of winning a basketball game at various competitive levels considering data from 14 seasons of the Euroleague. Different from the existing literature, we directly compute the marginal contribution of producing one more unit of each game statistic than the opponent to the probability of winning. We also differentiate our analysis over three stages of the Euroleague season that exhibit distinct levels of competitiveness. Results suggest sizeable differences in terms of contribution of game statistics across different levels of competition. As better performing teams advance, marginal contributions of game actions, especially defensive rebounding, assists, turnovers and shooting accuracy are considerably greater in absolute terms at more competitive stages. The most striking effect, however, is related to turnovers. While registering one turnover more than the opponent reduces the probability to win by 13% du...

Import surveillance and over-invoicing imports: the case of Turkey

Turkey has been implementing import surveillance measures. A possible impact of that is the over-invoicing of imports to avoid surveillance procedures, as goods whose prices are under a predefined reference undergo surveillance. We extend mirror statistics methodology with panel data techniques using highly disaggregated data in order to test for such an impact. Our findings show that import figures of Turkey are inflated by about 2 billion USD in 2011, due to over-reporting induced by surveillance. This might also be the source of systematically positive net errors and omissions item in the balance of payments during the sample period.

Short-term impact of a foreign player quota liberalisation policy on domestic player performance: evidence from a regression discontinuity design

We analyse the short-term impact of a policy, which removed the restrictions on the nationality of players playing on the court, on the performance of domestic players in the Turkish Basketball Sup...ABSTRACT We analyse the short-term impact of a policy, which removed the restrictions on the nationality of players playing on the court, on the performance of domestic players in the Turkish Basketball Super League. Previous rule required that, out of five players on the court for a team, at least two had to be native players. The policy change, however, removed that restriction and no specific play time is reserved for native players anymore. Our analysis, which compares two seasons before with two seasons after the policy change, shows that domestic players significantly receive fewer minutes and produce fewer game actions than before. More importantly, our empirical analysis, based on regression discontinuity design, points to a significant reduction in their real output (game actions adjusted for minutes played). This mainly reflects the shifting roles of domestic players, after the policy change, towards more passive actions of resting foreign players and committing tactical fouls in the game.

Firm strategy and consumer behaviour under a complex tobacco tax system: implications for the effectiveness of taxation on tobacco control

Background The current tobacco taxation scheme in Turkey, a mix of high ad valorem tax and low specific tax, contains incentives for firms and consumers to change pricing and consumption patterns, respectively. The association between tax structure and price and tax revenue stability has not been studied in detail with micro data containing price segment information. Objectives In this study, we analyse whether incentives for firms and consumers undermine the effectiveness of tax policy in reducing consumption. Methods We calculate alternative taxation scheme outcomes using differing ad valorem and specific tax rates through simulation analysis. We also estimate price elasticity of demand using detailed price and volume statistics between segments via regression analysis. Findings A very high ad valorem rate provides strong incentives to firms to reduce prices. Therefore, this sort of tax strategy may induce even more consumption despite its initial aim of discouraging consumption. While higher prices dramatically reduce consumption of economy and medium price segment cigarettes, demand for premium segment cigarettes is found to be highly price-inelastic. Conclusions The current tax scheme, based on both ad valorem and specific components, introduces various incentives to firms as well as to consumers which reduce the effectiveness of the tax policy. Therefore, on the basis of our theoretical predictions, an appropriate tax scheme should involve a balanced combination of ad valorem and specific rates, away from extreme (ad valorem or specific dominant) cases to enhance the effectiveness of tax policy for curbing consumption.

Impact of oil price changes on Turkey’s exports

ABSTRACT Substantial decline in oil prices observed since the second half of 2014 has brought forward discussions on the impact of oil prices on the external balance. This decline is expected to shift real income from oil exporter countries to oil importer countries. In this context, we study the effect of change in oil prices on Turkey’s exports taking into account the fact that Turkey’s export to oil exporting countries has approximately one-third share in total exports, while export to oil importing countries has a share of two-thirds. At the first step, we analyse the effect of oil prices on economic growth of trade partners of Turkey, where countries are grouped according to their net oil export position. We find that the effect of oil prices on different country groups’ growth is asymmetric. In the second stage, for two groups of countries, we estimate growth-export elasticity through Turkey’s export demand function. Finally, we calculate the net effect of oil prices on exports considering different income effects caused by oil price change on each country groups. Results indicate that the net effect of oil prices on the exports is limited given the current export shares.