M. van der Sande

Long time trends in influenza-like illness and associated determinants in The Netherlands

We analysed long-term epidemiological trends in influenza-like illness (ILI) in The Netherlands and used an ecological analysis to estimate its relationship with age, influenza vaccination, and virological aspects. This study used data from weekly ILI consultation reports from sentinel general practitioners (1986/1987 to 2006/2007), virological data from sentinel ILI patients (1992/1993 to 2006/2007), and data for influenza vaccine uptake (1991-2005). The incidence of ILI consultations, although varying during the study period, was estimated to decrease in the total population by 12.2/10 000 persons each season (95% CI 8.6-15.9). Uptake of influenza vaccination in people aged > or = 65 years (elderly) increased from 28% in 1991 to >70% since 1997. ILI incidence in the elderly declined by 1.7/10 000 persons (P=0.05) per percentage vaccine uptake per season. The decline in ILI incidence over the last 20 years could be related to the increased vaccine uptake. However, insufficient data were present to assess the impact of other potential contributing factors, such as diminished fitness of influenza viruses and changes in consulting behaviour.

The value of testing multiple anatomic sites for gonorrhoea and chlamydia in sexually transmitted infection centres in the Netherlands, 2006–2010

National surveillance data from 2006 to 2010 of the Dutch sexually transmitted infection (STI) centres were used to analyse current practices on testing extragenital sites for chlamydia and gonorrhoea in men who have sex with men (MSM) and women. In MSM, 76.0% and 88.9% were tested at least at one extragenital site (pharyngeal and/or anorectal) for chlamydia and gonorrhoea, respectively; for women this was 20.5% and 30.2%. Testing more than one anatomic site differed by STI centre, ranging from 2% to 100%. In MSM tested at multiple sites, 63.0% and 66.5% of chlamydia and gonorrhoea diagnoses, respectively, would have been missed if screened at the urogenital site only, mainly anorectal infections. For women tested at multiple sites, the proportions of missed chlamydia and gonorrhoea diagnoses would have been 12.9% and 30.0%, respectively. Testing extragenital sites appears warranted, due to the numerous infections that would have been missed. Adding anorectal screening to urogenital screening for all MSM visiting an STI centre should be recommended. Since actual testing practices differ by centre, there is a need for clearer guidelines. Routine gonorrhoea and chlamydia screening at multiple sites in STI centres should be investigated further as this might be a more effective approach to reduce transmission than current practice.

Prevalence of hepatitis B virus infection in The Netherlands in 1996 and 2007.

We aimed to assess differences in the prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in The Netherlands between 1996 and 2007, and to identify risk factors for HBV infection in 2007. Representative samples of the Dutch population in 1996 and 2007 were tested for antibodies to hepatitis B core antigen (anti-HBc), hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) and HBV-DNA. In 2007, the weighted anti-HBc prevalence was 3·5% (95% CI 2·2-5·5) and the HBsAg prevalence was 0·2% (95% CI 0·1-0·4). In indigenous Dutch participants, the anti-HBc prevalence was lower in 2007 than in 1996 (P=0·06). First-generation migrants (FGMs) had a 13-fold greater risk of being HBsAg- and/or HBV-DNA-positive than indigenous Dutch participants. In indigenous Dutch participants, risk factors for anti-HBc positivity were older age and having received a blood product before 1990. In FGMs, being of Asian origin was a risk factor. In second-generation migrants, having a foreign-born partner and injecting drug use were risk factors. FGMs are the main target group for secondary HBV prevention in The Netherlands.

The burden of 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) in the Netherlands

BACKGROUND The disease burden of the 2009 influenza pandemic has been debated but reliable estimates are lacking. To guide future policy and control, these estimates are necessary. This study uses burden of disease measurements to assess the contribution of the pandemic influenza A(H1N1) virus to the overall burden of disease in the Netherlands. METHODS The burden of disease caused by 2009 pandemic influenza was estimated by calculating Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALY), a composite measure that combines incidence, sequelae and mortality associated with a disease, taking duration and severity into account. Available influenza surveillance data sources (primary care sentinel surveillance, notification data on hospitalizations and deaths and death registries) were used. Besides a baseline scenario, five alternative scenarios were used to assess effects of changing values of input parameters. RESULTS The baseline scenario showed a loss of 5800 DALY for the Netherlands (35 DALY per 100 000 population). This corresponds to 0.13% of the estimated annual disease burden in the Netherlands and is comparable to the estimated disease burden of seasonal influenza, despite a different age distribution in incidence and mortality of the pandemic compared to seasonal influenza. CONCLUSIONS This disease burden estimate confirmed that, although there was a higher mortality observed among young people, the 2009 pandemic was overall a mild influenza epidemic. The disease burden of this pandemic was comparable to the burden of seasonal influenza in the Netherlands.

Time trends in primary-care morbidity, hospitalization and mortality due to pneumonia

Most studies reporting pneumonia morbidity are restricted to hospitalized patients, although only a minority of pneumonia patients are admitted to hospital. To get a better understanding of the burden of disease in the general population, we conducted a population-based retrospective study to examine trends in pneumonia incidence in general practice, hospitalization, and mortality due to pneumonia in The Netherlands between 1997 and 2007. Between 2001/2002 and 2006/2007 there was an adjusted yearly increase of 12% in the clinical diagnosis of pneumonia in patients consulting general practitioners. Hospitalizations increased 5% per year between 1999/2000 and 2006/2007, while mortality annually decreased by 2% between 1997/1998 and 2006/2007. Our study suggests that the morbidity of pneumonia in the Dutch population increased considerably over this period, especially in primary-care settings, and that focusing only on hospitalization might underestimate the increasing public health burden of pneumonia.

Increasing trend in gonococcal resistance to ciprofloxacin in The Netherlands, 2006–8

Introduction Rapid development of Neisseria gonorrhoeae resistance to several antibiotics in recent years threatens treatment and prevention. Targeted surveillance of new resistance patterns and insight into networks and determinants are essential to control this trend. Methods Since the Gonococcal Resistance to Antimicrobials Surveillance (GRAS) project was implemented within the Dutch national sexually transmitted infection (STI) surveillance network in July 2006, participating STI centres have collected a culture from each gonorrhoea patient. Isolates were tested for susceptibility to penicillin, tetracycline, ciprofloxacin and cefotaxime using Etest. Logistic regression was used to determine risk factors for ciprofloxacin resistance. Results Between July 2006 and July 2008, prevalence of resistance to penicillin was 10%, to tetracycline 22% and to ciprofloxacin 42%. Resistance to cefotaxime was not found, although minimum inhibitory concentrations higher than 0.125 mg/l drifted upward (p<0.05). Ciprofloxacin resistance rose from 35% in 2006 to 46% in 2008 (p<0.05), despite 2003 guidelines naming cefotaxime as first-choice therapy. In men, ciprofloxacin resistance was higher in men having sex with men (MSM) than in heterosexual men (adjusted OR 2.0, 95% CI : 1.5 to 2.6). In women, it was higher in commercial sex workers (adjusted OR 25.0, 95% CI 7.7 to 78.2) and women aged over 35 years (adjusted OR 8.2, 95% CI 3.0 to 22.7) than in other women. Conclusion Ciprofloxacin resistance in The Netherlands is increasing, and is particularly found in MSM, older women, and female sex workers. No resistance to current first-choice therapy was found, but alertness to potential clinical failures is essential. By merging epidemiological and microbiological data in GRAS, specific high-risk transmission groups can be identified and policy adjusted when needed.

Public health measures to control the spread of antimicrobial resistance in Neisseria gonorrhoeae in men who have sex with men

Gonorrhoea is one of the most common sexually transmitted infections. The control of gonorrhoea is extremely challenging because of the repeated development of resistance to the antibiotics used for its treatment. We explored different strategies to control the spread of antimicrobial resistance and prevent increases in gonorrhoea prevalence. We used a mathematical model that describes gonorrhoea transmission among men who have sex with men and distinguishes gonorrhoea strains sensitive or resistant to three antibiotics. We investigated the impact of combination therapy, switching first-line antibiotics according to resistance thresholds, and other control efforts (reduced sexual risk behaviour, increased treatment rate). Combination therapy can delay the spread of resistance better than using the 5% resistance threshold. Increased treatment rates, expected to enhance gonorrhoea control, may reduce gonorrhoea prevalence only in the short term, but could lead to more resistance and higher prevalence in the long term. Re-treatment of resistant cases with alternative antibiotics can substantially delay the spread of resistance. In conclusion, combination therapy and re-treatment of resistant cases with alternative antibiotics could be the most effective strategies to prevent increases in gonorrhoea prevalence due to antimicrobial resistance.

Disease burden of congenital cytomegalovirus infection at school entry age: study design, participation rate and birth prevalence

Congenital cytomegalovirus infection (cCMV) may lead to symptoms at birth and long-term consequences. We present a nationwide, retrospective cohort study on the outcome of cCMV up to age 6 years. For this study we identified cCMV, using polymerase chain reaction, by analysing dried blood spots, which are taken shortly after birth for neonatal screening. The group of children with cCMV were compared to a group of children who were cCMV negative at birth. Data were collected about their health and development up to age 6 years. Parents of 73 693 children were invited to participate, and 32 486 (44·1%) gave informed consent for testing of their childs dried blood spot for CMV. Of the 31 484 dried blood spots tested, 156 (0·5%) were positive for cCMV. Of these, four (2·6%) children had been diagnosed with cCMV prior to this study. This unique retrospective nationwide study permits the estimation of long-term sequelae of cCMV up to the age of 6 years. The birth prevalence of cCMV in this study was 0·5%, which is in line with prior estimates. Most (97·4%) children with cCMV had not been diagnosed earlier, indicating under-diagnosis of cCMV.

Lymphogranuloma venereum among men who have sex with men in the Netherlands: regional differences in testing rates lead to underestimation of the incidence, 2006-2012.

Since 2003, an epidemic of lymphogranuloma venereum (LGV) has been ongoing in men who have sex with men (MSM) in Europe. Of 92,271 MSM consulting sexually transmitted disease (STI) clinics in the Netherlands between 2006 and 2011, 63,228 (68%) were tested for anorectal Chlamydia infection, with 6,343 (10%) positive diagnoses. In 4,776 of those (75%), LGV testing was performed, with regional variation from 7% to 97%. In total 414 LGV cases were diagnosed, a mean annual positivity rate of 8.7%, decreasing from 14% in 2007 to 6% in 2011, but increasing to 13.1% during 2012 (184 new cases). Risk factors for LGV were human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) positivity (odds ratio (OR)=4.1; 95% confidence interval (CI): 3.2–5.3), STI symptoms (OR=4.1; 95% CI: 3.1–5.4), more than 50 sex partners in the past six months (OR=3.7; 95% CI: 1.1–12.4), older age (40–44 years: OR=2.1; 95% CI: 1.5–2.8), no condom use (OR=2.2; 95% CI: 1.2–3.9) and homosexuality (as opposed to bisexuality; OR=2.2; 95% CI: 1.1–4.2). Regional differences in LGV testing rates limit national LGV surveillance, leading to an underestimation of the real incidence. Characteristics of MSM with LGV did not change over time, so existing prevention strategies should be intensified.

Estimated incidence and number of outpatient visits for seasonal influenza in 2015-2016 in Beijing, China.

Information on morbidity burden of seasonal influenza in China is limited. A multiplier model was used to estimate the incidence and number of outpatient visits for seasonal influenza by age group for the 2015-2016 season in Beijing, the capital of China, based on reported numbers of influenza-like illness consultations and proportions of positive cases from influenza surveillance systems in Beijing, general consultation rates and other parameters from previous studies, surveys and surveillance systems. An estimated total of 1 190 200 (95% confidence interval (CI) 830 400-1 549 900) cases of influenza virus infections occurred in Beijing, 2015-2016 season, with an attack rate of 5·5% (95% CI 3·9-7·2%). These infections resulted in an estimated 468 280 (95% CI 70 700-606 800) outpatient visits, with an attack rate of 2·2% (95% CI 0·3-2·8%). The attack rate of influenza virus infections was highest among children aged 0-4 years (31·9% (95% CI 21·9-41·9%)), followed by children aged 5-14 years (18·7% (95% CI 12·9-24·5%)). Our study demonstrated a substantial influenza-related morbidity in Beijing, China, especially among the preschool- and school-aged children. This suggests that development or modification of seasonal influenza targeted vaccination strategies need to recognize that incidence is highest in children.